Mercedes-Benz Stock: China Slump and Cost Cuts Before Q3
Mercedes-Benz stock is under pressure from a sharp fall in China sales. Passenger-car sales there fell 31% in the third quarter, and the margin of the car division has slipped to around 4%. The share traded at €41.25 on Xetra at 13:48 CEST on 16 October 2026, according to Stock Analysis. That is about 31% below the 2025 closing price of €60.07, and the five-year table further down gives the longer context.
The next big test is the Mercedes-Benz Q3 2026 results on 28 October. Several banks have cut their price targets ahead of the report. Management is also pushing a large cost programme and has warned that two German plants could close. This article sets out the key numbers and the scenarios that markets may weigh after the report.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Today: The Main Answers
- Mercedes-Benz Stock 5 Year Performance
- Why Is Mercedes-Benz Stock Falling? The China Problem
- Mercedes-Benz Margin and Earnings
- Mercedes-Benz Cost Cutting Programme
- Mercedes-Benz Tariffs and Trade Policy
- Mercedes-Benz Valuation and Shareholder Returns
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Forecast: What Analysts Say
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Technical Analysis
- Mercedes-Benz Stock vs BMW Stock and VW
- Mercedes-Benz Q3 2026 Results Preview
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Scenarios
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Key Dates
- Mercedes-Benz Stock Risks and Opportunities
- How to Trade Mercedes-Benz Stock
- Bottom Line
- Frequently Asked Questions
Mercedes-Benz Stock Today: The Main Answers
Why is Mercedes-Benz stock down in 2026?
Four factors stand out. Each one is covered in detail further down.
- China passenger-car sales fell 31% to 86,800 units in Q3 2026.
- Sales of the high-priced Top-End models dropped 21% in the same quarter.
- The car division's adjusted return on sales was 4.0% in Q2, inside the 3% to 5% guidance range, according to the Q2 release.
- Fresh labour tension in Germany has added uncertainty about the cost of the restructuring.
Where Does the Mercedes-Benz Share Price Stand Now?
The table below shows a market snapshot taken at one moment. Prices move during the session, so the figures may be different when you read this.
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Last price (Xetra, delayed) | €41.25, up 3.3% on the day |
| Time of snapshot | 16 October 2026, 13:48 CEST (12:48 BST) |
| Day's range at that time | €40.20 to €41.37 |
| Previous close (15 October) | €39.94 |
| 52-week range | €38.89 to €62.34 |
| Volume at that time | 1,050,799 shares |
| Market capitalisation | about €37.96bn |
| Ticker and ISIN | MBG, DE0007100000 |
Source: Stock Analysis, Mercedes-Benz Group AG (ETR:MBG) quote, 16 October 2026, 13:48 CEST. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 52-week low of €38.89 was set on 8 October. Der Aktionär described the October sell-off as the lowest level since 2020. The same outlet notes that the share has nearly halved from its 2024 high of €76.55.
Mercedes-Benz Stock 5 Year Performance
A single year can give a distorted picture. The next table shows the five full calendar years from 2021 to 2025. It shows the year-end close and the annual change. It also lists the dividend for each year.
| Year | Year-end close (€) | Annual change | EPS (€) | Dividend per share (€) | Dividend yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 67.59 | +16.96% | 21.50 | 5.00 | 7.40% |
| 2022 | 61.40 | -9.16% | 13.55 | 5.20 | 8.47% |
| 2023 | 62.55 | +1.87% | 13.46 | 5.30 | 8.47% |
| 2024 | 53.80 | -13.99% | 10.19 | 4.30 | 7.99% |
| 2025 | 60.07 | +11.65% | 5.34 | 3.50 | 5.83% |
| 2026 to date | 41.25 (16 Oct, 13:48 CEST) | about -31.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
Source: Börsengeflüster, Mercedes-Benz Group company profile (annual data 2021 to 2025) and Stock Analysis (2026 figure). Dividend yields are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Over five years the share moved in a wide range. It gained in 2021, the year of the Daimler Truck spin-off, which also inflated EPS. Earnings then fell every year to 2025. The dividend followed them down, from €5.30 for 2023 to €3.50 for 2025.
Why Is Mercedes-Benz Stock Falling? The China Problem
China has long been a key market for Mercedes. That market is now the main source of pressure on Mercedes-Benz shares.
Mercedes-Benz China Sales Q3 2026
| Region | Q3 2026 units | Change vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Europe | 168,700 | +5% |
| of which Germany | 58,300 | +13% |
| Asia | 132,300 | -25% |
| of which China | 86,800 | -31% |
| North America | 83,200 | +4% |
| of which USA | 75,300 | +6% |
| Rest of the world | 23,000 | -8% |
| Mercedes-Benz Cars total | 407,200 | -8% |
Source: MercedesBlog, Q3 2026 sales figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
China delivered 86,800 cars in the quarter, down from 125,100 a year earlier. Its share of the car division's sales has dropped to about 21%. Over nine months, China sales are down 29% to 297,000 units. Group sales outside China rose 2% in Q3, according to Finwire via Placera.
Mercedes-Benz Top-End Sales Lose Momentum
The Top-End segment includes Mercedes-AMG and Mercedes-Maybach. It also covers the G-Class and the S-Class. Sales in this segment fell the most of all three segments in Q3.
| Segment | Q3 2026 units | Change | 9M 2026 units | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top-End | 53,900 | -21% | 173,500 | -12% |
| Core | 234,200 | -6% | 731,500 | -7% |
| Entry | 119,200 | -4% | 339,400 | -5% |
| BEV (all segments) | 68,400 | +61% | 165,500 | +40% |
Source: MercedesBlog, Q3 2026 sales figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The company also stopped publishing plug-in hybrid figures, citing weaker PHEV demand in China. Battery-electric sales hit a record and made up 16.8% of car sales. This may support the new model range. Its effect on profit should become clearer in the Q3 report.
Mercedes-Benz BAIC Joint Venture and Impairments
The Chinese partner BAIC Motor expects a net loss of up to RMB 1.65bn for the first half of 2026, as reported by KrASIA (Nikkei Asia). Mercedes booked a €704m impairment on its Chinese equity-method investments in Q2. That charge cut the reported EBIT of the car unit to €49m, according to the Q2 2026 results release. The impairment did not lead to a cash outflow.
Mercedes-Benz Margin and Earnings
Q2 2026 results in figures
| Group metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change | H1 2026 | H1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | €32.06bn | €33.15bn | -3.3% | €63.66bn | €66.38bn |
| EBIT | €1.55bn | €1.27bn | +21.5% | €3.45bn | €3.56bn |
| Net profit | €1.09bn | €0.96bn | +13.5% | €2.52bn | €2.69bn |
| Industrial free cash flow | €1.10bn | €1.87bn | -40.9% | €2.96bn | €4.22bn |
| EPS | €1.14 | €0.95 | +20.0% | €2.63 | €2.69 |
Source: Mercedes-Benz Group Q2 2026 results release, Business Wire. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Group EBIT rose in Q2 thanks to Financial Services and Vans. The car division moved the other way. Its adjusted EBIT fell 26% to €909m. Industrial free cash flow fell by about 41%, partly because of around €1.1bn of severance payments in the first half.
Cars margin trend
| Period | Mercedes-Benz Cars adjusted return on sales |
|---|---|
| FY2025 | 5.0% |
| Q1 2026 | 4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | 4.0% |
| FY2026 guidance | 3% to 5%, lower half expected |
Source: FY2025 results release, Hargreaves Lansdown on Q1 2026, Quartr Q2 2026 summary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
On the Q2 call, management said it expects the Cars margin to land in the lower half of the range, as summarised by Quartr. A result below 3% would break the guidance. RBC analyst Tom Narayan sees that risk, according to finanztrends. The mid-term target for the Cars margin is 8% to 10%, as reported by Hargreaves Lansdown.
Mercedes-Benz Outlook 2026
| Metric | FY2025 actual | FY2026 guidance (as of 28 July 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | €132.2bn | Slightly below prior year |
| Group EBIT | €5.8bn | Significantly above prior year |
| Industrial free cash flow | €5.4bn | Slightly below prior year |
| Cars unit sales | about 1.80m | Slightly below prior year |
| Cars adjusted return on sales | 5.0% | 3% to 5% |
| Cars xEV share | n/a | 23% to 25% |
| Vans adjusted return on sales | 10.2% | 8% to 10% |
Source: FY2025 results release and Q2 2026 results release. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
In July the company cut the revenue and unit-sales guidance to "slightly below" 2025, according to the Q2 release. The EBIT target starts from a low base. Reported 2025 EBIT of €5.8bn was well below adjusted EBIT of €8.2bn because of one-off charges.
Mercedes-Benz Cost Cutting Programme
Mercedes-Benz Next Level Performance Targets
The programme is called Next Level Performance. It aims to lower costs across the whole value chain. The company describes its targets in the FY2025 results release.
| Measure | Target or status |
|---|---|
| EBIT contribution in 2025 | More than €3.5bn |
| Fixed costs | Down 10% between 2024 and 2027 |
| Global production capacity | About 2.2m units by 2028 |
| Capacity in Germany | 900,000 units |
| Kecskemét, Hungary | Up to 400,000 vehicles |
| COMPAS plant, Aguascalientes | Mercedes assembly ends in 2026 |
Source: Mercedes-Benz Group FY2025 results release, Business Wire.
The cuts already show up in the accounts. In Q2 2026, general administrative expenses fell 14% and research and development spending fell 12%, according to the Q2 2026 results release. Press reports cited by MBpassion put the total savings goal at about €5bn a year by 2027. The company has not confirmed that figure.
Mercedes-Benz German Plant Closure Warning
Labour costs in Germany are now the most sensitive part of the plan. CEO Ola Källenius said after the Q2 results that Germany needs a "productivity offensive", as reported by IOL.
On 21 September, production chief Michael Schiebe spoke to workers at the Sindelfingen plant. The company shared excerpts of his speech. In them he said: "If we are unable to do this, we will have to close one German assembly plant and one German powertrain plant." The quote was reported by Reuters via TimesLIVE. Mercedes did not say which plants were at risk.
- Management wants a return to a 40-hour week with the same pay, according to MBpassion.
- The works council and IG Metall reject this demand, as the same report says.
- An existing agreement rules out compulsory redundancies in Germany until the end of 2034, according to MBpassion.
- About 5,500 employees left under the voluntary severance scheme between April 2025 and March 2026, MBpassion reports.
- Finance chief Harald Wilhelm had earlier said that a German plant closure was not planned, as MBpassion notes.
A Q3 Cars margin below 3% on 28 October would put the company's full-year range of 3% to 5% under pressure. A guidance cut can weigh on a share more than a single weak quarter, although market reactions vary.
What the cost cuts could mean for the stock
| Possible upside | Possible downside |
|---|---|
| Lower fixed costs could lift margins when sales recover | Severance costs absorb cash in the short term |
| A smaller capacity base could raise plant utilisation | Strikes or protests could disrupt production |
| A labour deal could remove a source of uncertainty | Plant closures could damage relations with unions and politicians |
| Cost savings could support the dividend | Savings may be eaten up by lower prices in China |
Source: Admirals summary based on the FY2025 results release and TimesLIVE (Reuters).
Mercedes-Benz Tariffs and Trade Policy
The 25% Tariff Threat
US trade policy has added volatility for German auto stocks in 2026. The table lists the main steps this year.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | President Trump says he plans to raise US tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25% |
| 4 May 2026 | Bernstein estimates the extra 10 points could cost German carmakers about €2.6bn of operating profit |
| 16 June 2026 | The European Parliament approves the US-EU tariff deal, which sets a 15% rate |
Source: Channels TV, TimesLIVE (Reuters), Newswav (AP).
Mercedes builds cars in the US at its Tuscaloosa plant, which may soften the effect. US car sales grew 6% in Q3, according to MercedesBlog. Tariff policy has changed quickly in the past. Traders often watch for new statements from Washington around results.
EU Cap on Chinese Hybrid Imports
The EU and China agreed to cap imports of Chinese hybrid cars at 350,000 a year, as reported by Briefs. The cap starts in December 2026. It may ease price pressure on European carmakers at home. It does little for Mercedes' sales inside China.
Mercedes-Benz Valuation and Shareholder Returns
Mercedes-Benz Valuation Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | about 7.8 at €41.25, on trailing EPS of €5.28 |
| Forward P/E | about 6.8 |
| Trailing dividend | €3.50 per share |
| Trailing dividend yield | about 8.5% at €41.25 |
| Payout ratio (dividend vs FY2025 EPS of €5.34) | about 65% |
| Industrial net liquidity (30 June 2026) | €30.4bn, about 80% of market value |
Source: Stock Analysis (16 October 2026, 13:48 CEST) and Q2 2026 results release. The dividend yield is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
A low P/E can signal value. It can also signal that the market expects earnings to fall further. Our guide to the price-earnings ratio explains both readings.
Dividend Outlook and the Risk of a Cut
The Mercedes-Benz dividend yield of about 8.5% looks high. That figure is before taxes and costs, which may vary. It is based on the past dividend. The dividend for 2025 was cut to €3.50 from €4.30, according to the FY2025 results release. The company has not given dividend guidance for 2026.
If earnings stay near 2025 levels, the payout could come under review again. This is an assessment, and the outcome depends on results and board decisions.
The Mercedes-Benz 1 Billion Buyback
The Mercedes-Benz investor relations page gives the details of the new programme.
- The buyback started on 1 September 2026.
- It is scheduled to finish by 6 April 2027.
- The company may repurchase up to 58 million shares for up to €1bn.
- Between 21 and 25 September it bought 895,000 shares for about €38.1m, as reported by Kapitalmarktexperten.
Buybacks can support demand for a share. They do not change the operating trend. Our article on share buybacks and dividends explains how each method returns cash.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Forecast: What Analysts Say
Mercedes-Benz Analyst Price Target Cuts
| Firm | Rating | Price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC | Sector Perform | Cut to €44 from €54 | 14 Oct 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Cut to €46 | 12 Oct 2026 |
| HSBC | Buy | Cut to €61 from €63 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Cut to €45 from €50 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Cut to €38.60 from €46 | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank Research | n/a | Cut to €70 | reported 3 Oct 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Raised to €59 from €58 | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | €56 | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Consensus (Stock Analysis) | Buy | Average €53.20 | 16 Oct 2026 |
Source: finanztrends (RBC), Goldesel (Jefferies), Goldesel (HSBC, UBS, Exane), Kapitalmarktexperten (Deutsche Bank), stock3 (Morgan Stanley, Bernstein), Stock Analysis (consensus). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The spread of views is wide. The lowest target in the table is €38.60 and the highest is €70. Most of the recent changes were cuts. Price targets are opinions of individual analysts, and they change often.
Will Mercedes-Benz Stock Recover?
The answer cannot be known in advance. Some analysts see value in the low P/E and the cash pile. Others expect China and the margin squeeze to keep earnings under pressure. The Q3 report and the comments on 2027 are likely to shape the next round of target changes.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Technical Analysis
Moving averages and momentum
| Indicator | Value | Price at 13:48 CEST vs indicator |
|---|---|---|
| 50-day moving average | €43.96 | about 6% below |
| 200-day moving average | €49.83 | about 17% below |
| RSI (14) | 47.02 | Neutral zone |
| 20-day average volume | 2,437,024 shares | Session volume so far about 43% of it |
Source: Stock Analysis, MBG statistics, 16 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The price sits below both averages. The 50-day line is also below the 200-day line, a pattern that technical analysts often read as a downtrend.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Support and Resistance
| Level | Type | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| about €48 | Resistance | The recovery from late June stalled here in early August |
| €45.60 | Resistance | Former key support, broken in June |
| €43.96 | Resistance | 50-day moving average |
| €42.62 | Resistance | June 2026 low |
| €38.89 | Support | 52-week low of 8 October 2026 |
| about €36 | Support | Next major downside target named by stock3 |
Source: stock3 analysis (14 September 2026) and Stock Analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Traders often watch whether the price can close above the June low near €42.62. A daily close below €38.89 would mark a new low for the year. Neither move is certain, and false breaks are common around results.
Mercedes-Benz Stock vs BMW Stock and VW
Mercedes is part of a wider group of European car stocks under pressure. BMW and Volkswagen face the same China slowdown. Our Volkswagen stock forecast covers the VW side in detail.
| Company | Next results | Main shared risk |
|---|---|---|
| Mercedes-Benz Group | 28 October 2026 (Q3) | China premium demand |
| Volkswagen Group | 29 October 2026 (9M), webcast 09:00 CET | China volumes |
| BMW | 3 November 2026 (Q3), time to be confirmed | China premium demand |
Source: Mercedes-Benz investor events, Volkswagen Group, 9M results 2026, MarketScreener, BMW calendar.
In June 2026, a profit warning from BMW pulled Mercedes down by about 3% on the same day, according to Investing.com. Peer results can move the whole sector.
Mercedes-Benz Q3 2026 Results Preview
What to watch on 28 October
The company lists the Interim Report Q3 2026 and the analyst call on 28 October. Exact times were not yet published on 16 October. Analysts often focus on these points.
- The Cars adjusted return on sales compared with the 3% floor.
- Any change to the full-year guidance for Cars.
- Comments on pricing and stock levels in China.
- Industrial free cash flow after severance payments.
- Progress on the labour talks in Germany.
- Any new impairment on Chinese investments.
Benchmarks from the last two quarters
| Item | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cars adjusted return on sales | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3% to 5%, lower half |
| China sales change | -27% | China H1 -28% | n/a |
| Industrial free cash flow | about €1.86bn | €1.10bn | Slightly below €5.4bn for FY |
Source: Hargreaves Lansdown, KrASIA, Q2 2026 results release. Q1 free cash flow derived from H1 minus Q2. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Scenarios
The three paths below are illustrative. They show how the share could react under different outcomes. They are not predictions.
| Scenario | Possible triggers | Levels that may come into focus |
|---|---|---|
| Relief rally | Cars margin at or above 4% with guidance confirmed | €42.62, then €44 to €46 |
| Sideways range | Margin of 3% to 4%, guidance held at the low end | Between €38.89 and €44 |
| New lows | Margin below 3% with a cut to guidance | Below €38.89, with €36 named by stock3 |
Source: Admirals illustration based on company guidance, stock3 levels and RBC comments. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Each scenario carries risk. A relief rally can fade if the outlook for 2027 disappoints. A sell-off can reverse quickly if the market sees the bad news as priced in.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Key Dates
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 28 October 2026 | Mercedes-Benz Interim Report Q3 2026 and analyst call |
| 28 October to 4 November 2026 | Mercedes post-results investor roadshows |
| 29 October 2026 | ECB rate decision at 14:15 CET |
| 29 October 2026 | Volkswagen 9M results |
| December 2026 | EU cap on Chinese hybrid imports starts |
| 6 April 2027 | Latest end date of the €1bn buyback |
Source: Mercedes-Benz investor events, Admirals ECB preview, Volkswagen Group, Briefs, Mercedes-Benz buyback page.
The ECB decision lands one day after the results, so the last week of October may be a busy one for German shares. The Admirals economic calendar lists the macro releases for those days.
Mercedes-Benz Stock Risks and Opportunities
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Trailing P/E of about 7.8 | Earnings could fall further in 2026 and 2027 |
| €30.4bn industrial net liquidity | Cash flow is under pressure from severance payments |
| Record electric car sales in Q3 | Battery-electric cars are still only 16.8% of car sales |
| Several European plants run three shifts | China sales fell 31% in Q3 |
| The €1bn buyback runs to April 2027 | A dividend cut is possible if profits stay weak |
| The EU hybrid cap may ease competition in Europe | US tariff policy can change quickly |
Source: Admirals summary based on the Q2 2026 results release and MercedesBlog Q3 2026 sales.
How to Trade Mercedes-Benz Stock
Ways to gain exposure
Admirals offers the opportunity to trade CFDs on shares, Forex, indices and commodities, as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and stocks. Its contract specifications list Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE) on Xetra in the Classic Stocks range. That range belongs to the stock and ETF investing offer. Availability can depend on the account type and region.
Mercedes is one of the DAX companies, as Der Aktionär notes. Some traders follow the index through CFDs on indices. Our guide to DAX trading explains how the index works.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Managing risk around results
Share prices can gap sharply on results days. Traders often take some of these steps.
- Some traders reduce position size before a results release.
- Some set stop-loss orders, although these may not be filled at the chosen price in a gap.
- Others wait for the analyst call before they act.
- A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
Cyclical shares like carmakers often react strongly to the economic cycle. Our article on cyclical stocks explains why.
Bottom Line
Mercedes-Benz shares are about 31% lower in 2026 at the 16 October snapshot. China is the main reason, with sales down 31% in Q3. The car division's margin was 4.0% in Q2, and management expects the full year in the lower half of its range.
The cost programme already shows in the accounts, although its labour side has become tense. The low P/E and the cash position stand out on paper. Both depend on profits holding up. The Q3 report on 28 October is the next clear test for the share.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why Is Mercedes-Benz Stock Down?
China sales fell 31% in Q3 2026. Car margins slipped to 4.0% in Q2, inside a 3% to 5% range.
How Much Has Mercedes-Benz Stock Fallen?
At €41.25 at 13:48 CEST on 16 October 2026, the share was about 31% below the 2025 close of €60.07.
When are the Mercedes-Benz Q3 2026 results?
Mercedes-Benz plans to publish its third-quarter 2026 interim report on 28 October, followed by an analyst call.
Is Mercedes-Benz Stock Undervalued?
The trailing P/E is about 7.8, which looks low, but earnings may fall further, so views differ widely.
Will Mercedes-Benz cut dividend payments again?
The company has not given dividend guidance for 2026, so the outcome depends on full-year profits and board decisions.
When Is the Mercedes-Benz Dividend Paid?
Mercedes usually pays its dividend after the annual general meeting in spring, and the last ex-date was 17 April 2026.
What Is the Mercedes-Benz Market Cap?
Mercedes-Benz Group was worth about €37.96bn at 13:48 CEST on 16 October 2026, based on 920.14 million shares.
What Are Analysts Saying About Mercedes-Benz Stock?
Recent targets in our table range from €38.60 at Exane BNP Paribas to €70 at Deutsche Bank, mostly after cuts.
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