Rheinmetall Stock 2026: Why the Shares Slumped and What Comes Next

Rheinmetall stock came under heavy pressure in 2026. The cancelled F126 frigate programme in June and a lowered sales outlook in August weighed most. Large cash outflows in the first half added to the strain. On 16 October 2026 the shares traded at €1,079.40 on Xetra around 14:00 CEST, about 31% below the 2025 closing price of €1,561.00 (MarketScreener). The five-year price record is shown further down.

The next tests are close. Rheinmetall reports its Q3 2026 figures on 5 November. The Bundestag votes on the 2027 budget on 27 November, and the funding decision for a Boxer order worth about €12.4bn to Rheinmetall is expected on 9 December. Analysts remain divided on what that means for the share price.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Rheinmetall Stock Today: Key Facts at a Glance

The Rheinmetall share price has rallied in October after a long slide. The stock gained about 15% in the week to 16 October. The table below shows the main data points of the day.

Metric Value Time stamp
Last price (Xetra, delayed) €1,079.40 16 Oct 2026, about 14:00 CEST (13:00 BST)
Change on the day +5.20% vs €1,026.00 previous close 16 Oct 2026, about 14:00 CEST
Change in 2026 -30.9% (computed from the 2025 close) 16 Oct 2026, intraday
Change over one week +14.9% (computed from the 9 Oct close of €939.10) 16 Oct 2026, intraday
52-week range €900.20 to €1,966.00 16 Oct 2026
Shares outstanding 46.67m 16 Oct 2026
Market capitalisation (computed) About €50.4bn at €1,079.40 16 Oct 2026

Source: MarketScreener quotes and StockAnalysis. Market capitalisation and percentage changes computed from the share count and prices. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

How Much Is Rheinmetall Stock Down in 2026?

At €1,079.40 the stock was 30.9% below its 2025 close. On 14 October, before the latest leg of the rally, the year-to-date fall was 37.01% (MarketScreener). At the 52-week low of €900.20 in June, the shares were about 42% below their 2025 close.

Measured from the 52-week high of €1,966.00, the shares are about 45% lower. Measured from the 52-week low of €900.20, they are about 20% higher.

Is Rheinmetall in the DAX?

Yes. Rheinmetall AG is a member of the DAX 40 (dpa-AFX via MarketScreener). It also joined the EURO STOXX 50 on 23 June 2025 (Börsen-Zeitung). The ticker is RHM on Xetra, written XETR:RHM on TradingView.

Why Did Rheinmetall Stock Crash? The 2026 Timeline

The Rheinmetall stock slump came in several steps. Each step had its own trigger. The table sums them up.

Date (2026) Event Share price reaction
4 to 5 February Pre-close call guides 2026 sales of about €13.6bn Intraday fall of more than 9% on 5 February
11 March FY2025 results with 2026 outlook of €14.0bn to €14.5bn Outlook of 40% to 45% sales growth
24 June Berlin ends the F126 frigate programme Close down 19.06%
25 June 52-week low area near €900 Low point of the year so far
6 August Sales outlook cut to €13.7bn to €14.2bn Pressure continues into autumn
8 October Berenberg cuts to Hold, target €1,020 Shares stayed below €950
12 to 16 October Morgan Stanley flags year-end orders Rally of about 15% in a week

Source: Rheinmetall, Trading Economics, Börse Express, AFP report of 6 August, dpa-AFX via Deutsche Börse, Investing.com, MarketScreener. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

February: The Pre-Close Call

On 4 February management held a pre-close call with analysts. It pointed to 2026 sales of about €13.6bn. The stock fell more than 9% at its low the next day.

March: The 2026 Outlook

On 11 March Rheinmetall published its FY2025 figures. The company guided 2026 sales of €14.0bn to €14.5bn, a rise of 40% to 45%, at an operating margin of about 19% (Rheinmetall FY2025 press release). The margin goal was close to the 18.5% reached in 2025.

24 June: Germany Scraps the F126 Frigate

The biggest single blow came on 24 June. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius ended the six-ship F126 frigate programme. He cited significant delays and foreseeable cost increases (Euronews). The shares closed 19.06% lower that day (Trading Economics).

Rheinmetall had bought the naval shipbuilder NVL in March 2026. NVL was lined up to take over the F126 work as prime contractor (Euronews). Rheinmetall had offered to complete the six frigates for about €15bn (Börse Express).

F126 fact Figure
Ships in the cancelled programme 6
Money already spent About €2.3bn
Estimated cost to complete More than €18bn
Original budget About €10bn
Rheinmetall offer to finish the ships About €15bn
Replacement order Up to 8 MEKO A-200 frigates from TKMS
Share price move on 24 June -19.06% at the close

Source: Euronews, Börse Express, Trading Economics. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The Dutch shipyard Damen, the original F126 builder, is examining damages claims (Börse Express). In August Rheinmetall cut its annual naval sales forecast by €300m (about $346m) because of the cancellation, as Breaking Defense reported.

August: The Rheinmetall Guidance Cut

On 6 August Rheinmetall lowered its 2026 sales outlook to €13.7bn to €14.2bn. The company linked the cut to about €300m of lower naval sales. It also lowered its order book goal to more than €100bn, from about €135bn (AFP report of 6 August).

Item Earlier outlook After (6 August 2026)
2026 sales €14.0bn to €14.5bn €13.7bn to €14.2bn
Operating margin About 19% About 19% (unchanged)
Year-end order book goal About €135bn More than €100bn
Capital expenditure About 16% of sales (2025 capital markets day) 8% to 9% of sales

Source: Rheinmetall and AFP report of 6 August. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Rheinmetall Stock Price History: Five Years in Context

The 2026 slump follows one of the strongest runs on the German market. Rheinmetall was the best DAX performer of 2025 with a gain of 153.99% (dpa-AFX via MarketScreener). The five-year record also includes a small loss in 2021 and the sharp fall of 2026.

Year Year-end close (Xetra) Annual change
2021 €83.06 -4.07%
2022 €186.05 +123.99%
2023 €287.00 +54.26%
2024 €614.60 +114.15%
2025 €1,561.00 +153.99%
2026 (to 16 Oct) €1,079.40 (intraday) -30.9% (computed)

Source: annual changes from MarketScreener quotes, 2025 close from dpa-AFX via MarketScreener. Earlier year-end closes derived from these figures. Period 1 January 2021 to 16 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Big gains were followed by a deep drawdown. The record close of €1,995.00 came on 29 September 2025 (Börse Express). From that peak to the 2026 low the stock lost about 55%.

Rheinmetall Fundamentals: What the Numbers Say

Earnings growth has stayed strong in 2026. The problem sits in cash flow and in the timing of large orders.

Rheinmetall FY2025 Results

FY2025 item Value Change
Sales €9,935m +29%
Operating result €1,841m +33%
Operating margin 18.5% Up from 2024
Order backlog €63.8bn Record at the time
Operating free cash flow €1,218m Positive
EPS (continuing operations) €22.73 Higher
Dividend per share €11.50 Paid in May 2026

Source: Rheinmetall FY2025 press release, 11 March 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Rheinmetall H1 2026 Results

H1 2026 item Value
Sales €5.2bn (+39%)
Operating result €786m (+74%)
Operating margin 15.0% (12.1% a year earlier)
EPS (continuing operations) €8.43 (€4.69 a year earlier)
Order backlog at 30 June €80.5bn (€56.0bn a year earlier)
Operating free cash flow About -€1.6bn
Naval Systems sales €334m at a 9.8% margin

Source: Großwald, H1 2026 results summary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Rheinmetall Free Cash Flow: The Weak Spot

Operating free cash flow was about -€1.6bn in the first half, against about -€0.6bn a year earlier. Inventory build-up tied up cash. Some advance payments arrived late, and receivables grew. Capacity investment also continued (Großwald).

On 8 October Rheinmetall renewed its syndicated credit line ahead of schedule. The line rose from €750m to €1.5bn (ad-hoc-news).

Rheinmetall Backlog and Orders

The Rheinmetall backlog reached €80.5bn at 30 June. That is about 44% more than a year earlier. Germany's share of group sales rose to almost 40% in the first half (Großwald). This growth brings a higher dependence on one customer.

Rheinmetall Power Systems Sale

On 3 June Rheinmetall agreed to sell its automotive unit to the investment firm Aequita. The provisional price is about €350m. The sale brings further impairments of about €200m, and closing is expected in Q4 2026 (AFP report of 4 June).

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The Boxer Deal: Rheinmetall's Biggest Near-Term Order

The Boxer deal is one of the key scheduled events for the company. The figure of €12.4bn often quoted in the press is Rheinmetall's expected share of a firm order. The contract was still unsigned on 16 October.

Boxer and Arminius item Value
Firm order (total) About €25bn
Vehicles in the firm order About 1,800 Boxers
Rheinmetall share (50/50 with KNDS) About €12.4bn
Bundestag funding decision Expected 9 December 2026
Signing Possible 5 to 10 days later
Advance payment 30%, more than €3bn, December or January
Possible fleet with options Up to about 5,500 vehicles

Source: Defence Industry Europe and Calibre Defence. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

When Will the Boxer Contract Be Signed?

CEO Armin Papperger expected the Bundestag to consider the funding on 9 December. Signing could follow five to ten days later (Defence Industry Europe). That date sits just before Rheinmetall closes its financial year.

Why the Advance Payment Matters

Management expects a 30% advance payment worth more than €3bn. It could arrive in December or January (Defence Industry Europe). If it arrives as planned, a payment of that size would exceed the operating free cash outflow of about €1.6bn in the first half. The timing remains uncertain.

What Is Still Uncertain?

The options beyond the firm order are unfunded. Papperger cautioned that the Bundeswehr might decline to sign the full framework (Calibre Defence). The highest value in the press, about €77bn, is an upper-end calculation (Defence Industry Europe).

Germany Defence Budget 2027 and European Spending

Germany's spending plans are an important long-term factor for the sector. The 2027 draft budget sets defence spending at €109.7bn. That is €27bn, or 32.7%, more than in 2026 (ES&T).

Year Planned defence budget (Einzelplan 14)
2027 (draft) €109.7bn
2028 (financial plan) €153.9bn
2029 (financial plan) €169.9bn
2030 (financial plan) €183.7bn

Source: ES&T, draft budget 2027. Planned figures may change in parliament. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The Bundestag Timetable

The Budget Committee holds its final session on 12 November. The second and third readings run from 24 to 27 November, with the final vote on 27 November (Deutscher Bundestag).

Why Budgets Are Only Half the Story

Budget lines do not book sales by themselves. Markets look for signed contracts and paid advances. The F126 case showed that German procurement decisions can also go against Rheinmetall.

For Rheinmetall, two scheduled dates stand out before year-end. Q3 figures land on 5 November, and the Boxer funding decision is expected on 9 December.

Why Is Rheinmetall Stock Rallying in October 2026?

The shares rose about 15% in the week to 16 October. Several factors lined up at the same time.

  • Morgan Stanley said on 12 October that European defence groups could see more order awards and a seasonal rally into year-end.
  • Rheinmetall reclaimed the €1,000 mark on 15 October on above-average volume.
  • The doubled credit line gave the company more financial room.
  • European peers such as BAE Systems and Thales also gained.

On 15 October Xetra volume was 282,889 shares. That is about 1.5 times the 20-session average of 193,266 shares (MarketScreener). The Morgan Stanley note is covered by Investing.com and ad-hoc-news. Gains across the sector on 16 October were reported by Investing.com.

Ukraine Peace Headlines and Defence Stocks

Headlines about peace talks can move European defence shares. On 11 October the US announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine covering refinery strikes. Russia had not confirmed it as of 13 October (Euromaidan Press). The effect of such news on share prices is hard to predict.

Rheinmetall Insider Buying by the CEO

Armin Papperger bought shares worth about €3m on 25 June, the day after the crash (XTB). Insider purchases can signal management confidence. They offer little guidance on short-term price moves.

Rheinmetall Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

The Rheinmetall analyst consensus still leans positive. The spread of targets is very wide, from €1,020 to €2,380.

Broker or source Rating Price target Date
Consensus (21 analysts) 17 positive ratings, 4 neutral Average €1,571, median €1,600 9 Oct 2026
Berenberg Hold (from Buy) €1,020 (from €1,600) 8 Oct 2026
JPMorgan Neutral €1,350 17 Aug 2026
RBC Buy €1,600 9 Oct 2026
Bernstein Buy €1,200 9 Oct 2026
Deutsche Bank Buy €1,800 6 Oct 2026
Lowest and highest targets Range €1,020 to €2,380 9 Oct 2026

Source: StockAnalysis forecast page, dpa-AFX on Berenberg, dpa-AFX on JPMorgan. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The Berenberg Downgrade

On 8 October Berenberg cut Rheinmetall to Hold. The bank lowered its target from €1,600 to €1,020. It argued that the group needs significantly more orders to keep growing beyond 2030 (dpa-AFX via Deutsche Börse).

JPMorgan Neutral at €1,350

JPMorgan kept its Neutral rating and a target of €1,350 on 17 August. Its estimates sit up to 17% below consensus through 2030 (dpa-AFX via Deutsche Börse).

Rheinmetall 2030 Targets

At its capital markets day in November 2025, Rheinmetall aimed for about €50bn of sales in 2030. It also targeted an operating margin above 20% (Invezz). JPMorgan's estimates sit below consensus through 2030, and Berenberg questions growth beyond 2030, as noted above.

Rheinmetall Valuation: P/E and Dividend

The table below shows the main valuation measures on 16 October.

Valuation measure Value Basis
Trailing P/E 39.3x At €1,057.40, about 09:20 CEST on 16 Oct 2026
Forward P/E 22.7x At €1,057.40, about 09:20 CEST on 16 Oct 2026
P/E on 2026E EPS of €37.27 (computed) About 29x Price €1,079.40, 2026 estimate
P/E on 2027E EPS of €52.99 (computed) About 20x Price €1,079.40, 2027 estimate
Dividend for FY2025 €11.50 per share Ex-date 13 May 2026
Dividend yield (computed) About 1.1% At €1,079.40

Source: StockAnalysis and StockAnalysis forecast page. The dividend yield is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The dividend yield of about 1.1% is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Dividends can change from year to year.

Rheinmetall Technical Analysis: Support and Resistance

Rheinmetall technical analysis shows a stock testing its medium-term averages. The levels below combine moving averages from TipRanks (as of the 9 October close) with price points from news reports.

Level Price zone Why it matters
Resistance 3 €1,300 to €1,323 200-day EMA and SMA
Resistance 2 About €1,171 Close on 23 June, before the F126 gap
Resistance 1 €1,091 to €1,116 100-day SMA and EMA
Pivot About €1,072 50-day SMA
Support 1 €1,000 to €1,020 Round number and Berenberg target
Support 2 About €950 October trading range
Support 3 €900 to €902.50 52-week low from 25 June
Deeper zone €880, then about €600 XTB support levels

Source: TipRanks technical analysis, Börse Express, XTB, Bild via EADaily (23 June close). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On 16 October the price moved above its 50-day average of about €1,072. The 100-day and 200-day averages still sit higher. The RSI(14) read 35.8 on 9 October, before the rally (TipRanks). This reading predates the October rally.

TipRanks showed the MACD at -34.0 on 9 October, with the line turning up. In June the 100-day EMA crossed below the 200-day EMA, a pattern known as a death cross (XTB). The guide to moving averages and the guide to the RSI indicator explain how these tools work.

Rheinmetall Stock Volatility

Single-day moves in 2026 have been large. The stock fell 19.06% on 24 June and more than 9% intraday on 5 February. Thirty-day annualised volatility reached about 69% in July (Börse Express). The daily moves are reported by Trading Economics.

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Rheinmetall Stock Catalysts: Key Dates

The final quarter of 2026 is full of scheduled events. Dates may move.

Date Event Time (UK)
20 to 23 Oct Futureforces fair, Prague All day
28 Oct FOMC decision 18:00 GMT
29 Oct ECB decision 13:15 GMT
5 Nov Rheinmetall Q3 2026 statement Time to be confirmed
12 Nov Bundestag Budget Committee final session During the day
27 Nov Final Bundestag vote on the 2027 budget During the day
9 Dec Expected Bundestag funding decision on Boxer During the day
9 Dec FOMC decision 19:00 GMT
17 Dec ECB decision 13:15 GMT
Dec or Jan Possible Boxer advance payment Not scheduled

Source: Rheinmetall financial calendar via MarketScreener, Deutscher Bundestag, Federal Reserve, Admirals ECB preview, Defence Industry Europe, ad-hoc-news.

Rheinmetall Q3 2026 Results on 5 November

The Rheinmetall Q3 2026 results are due on 5 November (Rheinmetall via MarketScreener). Traders often watch whether the sales range of €13.7bn to €14.2bn holds. Cash flow and new nominations are also in focus.

ECB and Fed Decisions

Rate decisions can move the whole DAX. The ECB meeting preview for October 2026 covers what markets watch on 29 October.

Rheinmetall Stock Forecast 2026: Illustrative Scenarios

The paths below are illustrative only and are not a recommendation. They are built from the triggers and price levels discussed above.

Scenario Possible triggers Possible price path
Positive Q3 confirms the outlook with better cash flow. Boxer is funded and signed in December. Could test €1,091 to €1,116, then the June gap near €1,171
Neutral Q3 is in line, cash flow stays weak. Boxer slips into January. Could range between €950 and €1,120
Negative Q3 misses or the outlook is cut again. Ceasefire progress in Ukraine weighs on sector sentiment. Could fall back to €900, with €880 as the next level

Illustrative scenarios based on levels from TipRanks, Bild via EADaily and XTB. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Rheinmetall Bull Case and Bear Case

Pros (bull case) Cons (bear case)
Order backlog of €80.5bn at 30 June Operating free cash flow of about -€1.6bn in H1
Boxer share of about €12.4bn expected Boxer funding still pending in parliament
German defence budget of €109.7bn planned for 2027 Almost 40% of sales come from Germany
Consensus target of €1,571 Berenberg target of €1,020
2030 sales goal of about €50bn Growth beyond 2030 questioned by analysts

Source: Großwald, Defence Industry Europe, ES&T, StockAnalysis. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Rheinmetall Stock Risks

  • Cash flow could stay negative if advance payments arrive late again.
  • The Boxer contract could slip past December.
  • German procurement decisions can turn against the company, as F126 showed.
  • Headlines about peace talks in Ukraine could weigh on sector sentiment.
  • Further broker downgrades could follow the Berenberg move.
  • Damen damages claims around F126 remain open.
  • The naval unit earns a margin well below the group average.

European Defence Stocks in Context

Rheinmetall is one of several large defence names in Europe. Hensoldt and Renk are listed in Germany too. BAE Systems trades in London. The overview of European defence stocks explains the wider sector.

The DAX gives broader context for German shares. The guide to DAX trading explains how the index works.

How to Trade Rheinmetall Stock: What Traders Often Watch

Traders often follow a few signals around a stock like this. They are observations, and each trader decides on their own approach.

  • Many traders watch the €1,000 level and the 52-week low near €900.
  • Some focus on the Q3 cash flow figure on 5 November.
  • Others track news from the Bundestag on the Boxer funding.
  • Some also follow headlines on peace talks in Ukraine.

Rheinmetall CFD and Share Access

The Admirals contract specifications list a Rheinmetall AG share CFD (#RHM) and the Rheinmetall AG share (RHM) on Xetra. Availability may vary by country and account type. Admirals offers CFDs on shares and CFDs on indices. It also offers CFDs on Forex and commodities. Investing in shares and ETFs is available as well.

**CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.**

CFDs allow traders to go long or short. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. Trades can run on MetaTrader 5.

Practising First

A demo account uses virtual funds. Results may differ from live trading, because live markets bring slippage and emotions.

Managing Risk

Stop-loss orders and position sizing are common ways to manage risk. Gaps such as the one on 24 June can jump past a stop-loss level. The guide on risk management covers the basics.

The Bottom Line

Rheinmetall shares are about 31% lower in 2026 after the F126 shock and a weaker outlook. Cash flow is the weak spot. The October rally shows how fast sentiment can shift on order news. The Q3 report on 5 November and the Boxer decision on 9 December are the next big tests.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Rheinmetall stock down in 2026?

The shares fell after Germany cancelled the F126 frigate programme, followed by a lower sales outlook and weak cash flow.

How much did Rheinmetall stock fall on 24 June 2026?

The stock closed 19.06% lower on 24 June 2026, the day Berlin ended the six-ship F126 frigate programme.

When does Rheinmetall report Q3 earnings?

Rheinmetall's financial calendar lists the Q3 2026 quarterly statement for Thursday, 5 November 2026, ahead of the budget vote.

When will the Boxer contract be signed?

The CEO expected a Bundestag funding decision on 9 December 2026, with signing possible five to ten days later.

How much does Rheinmetall get from Boxer?

Rheinmetall expects about €12.4bn, its half of a firm order worth about €25bn for around 1,800 vehicles.

What is the Rheinmetall price target consensus?

The average target of 21 analysts was €1,571 on 9 October 2026, within a range from €1,020 to €2,380.

Is Rheinmetall in the DAX?

Yes, Rheinmetall is a DAX 40 member and has also been part of the EURO STOXX 50 since June 2025.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

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