Volkswagen Stock Forecast 2026: VOW3 Outlook Before the Q3 Results

This guide looks at the outlook for the Volkswagen preferred share (VOW3) before the nine-month report on 29 October 2026. The share closed at €68.86 on Xetra on 13 October 2026. That is about 33.5% below the 2025 year-end close of €103.55. On 8 October the stock closed at €66.60, its lowest close this year (StockAnalysis, Volkswagen Annual Report 2025).

Three September events added to the pressure. The first was the profit warning of 18 September. The second was the exit from the Euro Stoxx 50 on 21 September. The third was the termination of in-house wage agreements on 30 September. The 29 October report is expected to include a write-down of about €6bn related to Porsche (Volkswagen ad hoc statement).

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data as at 14 October 2026. Prices refer to the VOW3 preferred share (ISIN DE0007664039) on Xetra unless stated otherwise. Analyst price targets listed by finanzen.net range from €70 to €120. This guide sets out the facts behind those numbers, the dates the market is watching and the risks on both sides.

Volkswagen Stock Today: The Short Answer

The share sits close to its 2026 low. The short-term trend on the daily chart points down. Analysts remain divided, and most of their published targets sit above the current price.

Source: StockAnalysis, Xetra price history and Volkswagen Annual Report 2025, share key figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The table puts the recent fall in context. The five-year record further down shows that the share has been under pressure since 2021, with only two positive years out of five.

The Last Ten Trading Sessions

The share has closed in a narrow band between €66.60 and €70.46 since the end of September. Volume has eased from the peak seen on the day of the warning.

Source: StockAnalysis, Xetra closing prices. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

On 7 October the share touched €72.02 intraday as Porsche AG held its strategy day. The next session closed at a new low of €66.60. Some chart commentators read this kind of reversal as a sign of continued selling pressure (sharedeals), although such signals often fail.

Why Is Volkswagen Stock Down in 2026?

The 2026 decline has several layers. Weak demand in China and US tariffs weighed on the first half (Volkswagen half-year release). September then brought a profit warning and an index exit. A labour dispute followed.

Source: StockAnalysis, Xetra price history. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The Volkswagen Profit Warning 2026

At 17:17 CEST on 18 September, Volkswagen published an ad hoc statement. It cut the 2026 operating return on sales to "up to 1%". The previous range was 4.0% to 5.5%, and analysts had expected 4.1% on average (Volkswagen ad hoc statement, 18 September 2026).

Special items of about €10bn drive the cut. About €0.9bn of that was already booked in the first half. Adjusted for these items, the margin would be around 4%.

Source: Volkswagen AG ad hoc statement, 18 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The cash targets stayed in place. Volkswagen describes the largest charge, the Porsche goodwill write-down, as non-cash.

The Volkswagen Porsche Goodwill Impairment

The largest single item is a non-cash write-down of about €6bn. It relates to goodwill allocated to the Porsche segment and will hit the third quarter. Porsche AG had updated its long-term planning, including a medium-term margin corridor of 10% to 15% (Volkswagen ad hoc).

A further €2bn or so covers wider early retirement schemes and the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück GmbH. It also includes non-cash write-downs at fully consolidated companies in China. Most of these items are expected in the third quarter.

What the Guidance Implies for the Second Half

Simple arithmetic shows the scale. A margin of up to 1% on about €315bn of revenue gives an operating result of up to about €3.15bn for 2026.

The first half delivered €5.9bn (Volkswagen half-year release). That implies a reported operating loss of at least about €2.75bn in the second half. This is an illustration based on current guidance, and actual results may differ.

What the Guidance Leaves Out

The forecast assumes that the current tariff situation stays in place. It excludes the costs of implementing the restructuring programme, which the ad hoc calls the Group Target Picture 2030. It also leaves out the sale of a majority stake in Everllence. Possible effects of the escalation in the Middle East are excluded as well, since Volkswagen cannot reliably estimate them (Volkswagen ad hoc).

The Volkswagen Euro Stoxx 50 Exit

The preferred shares left the Euro Stoxx 50 at the open on 21 September 2026. Nokia and Engie joined the index, while Wolters Kluwer also left (ms-aktuell).

The index ranks companies by free-float market value. Funds that track the index typically need to sell a stock that leaves it. A Financial Times report, cited by kurs.com.ua, said the shares had fallen to their lowest level in about 16 years.

The chart of a DAX CFD above shows the wider German market for comparison.

Volkswagen Q3 2026 Deliveries and Regional Trends

On 12 October Volkswagen published its delivery figures for the first nine months. Group deliveries fell 14.3% in the third quarter to 1.885 million vehicles (Volkswagen Group press release, 12 October 2026).

Source: Volkswagen Group delivery release, 12 October 2026. Changes are year on year. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Volkswagen China: The Biggest Drag

China remains the weakest region. Third-quarter deliveries there fell 38.5%. Volkswagen describes the overall Chinese market as sharply declining (Volkswagen delivery release). Its ad hoc statement also flags non-cash write-downs at fully consolidated companies in China (Volkswagen ad hoc).

The Volkswagen Europe Order Book

Europe tells a different story from China, where deliveries fell. The total order book in Europe was about 11% higher than at the end of 2025. The order book for electric cars roughly doubled, and BEVs now make up about 40% of orders (Volkswagen delivery release).

Battery-electric order intake rose more than 60% in the third quarter. The new Electric Urban Car Family has close to 150,000 orders. Volkswagen says the faster shift in demand towards battery-electric cars weighs on its operating result (Volkswagen ad hoc).

The European Car Market

The wider market is growing. EU new car registrations rose 5.3% in January to August 2026, to about 7.55 million (SteelOrbis, ACEA data).

In Germany, September registrations rose 9% to 256,774. Electric cars took 34.5% of the market. The Volkswagen brand kept a 16.5% share, although its registrations fell 6.1% (Notebookcheck, KBA data). Our report on German industrial production in August 2026 covers the broader backdrop.

Volkswagen Earnings: The First-Half Base

The half-year figures of 24 July set the base for the rest of 2026. Revenue was flat, while operating profit fell.

Source: Volkswagen Group half-year release, 24 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

CFO Arno Antlitz said in the release that the 3.8% margin "remains too low and underlines the call to action". About €0.5bn of costs came from ending ID.4 production in the US (Volkswagen half-year release).

Volkswagen Q3 2026 Results: What the Market Is Watching

The report for the first nine months is due on 29 October 2026 (Volkswagen ad hoc). It is the first report to include the Porsche goodwill write-down. Volkswagen expects most of its special items in the third quarter, so reported profit for the quarter will include large charges.

Analysts often focus on the items below.

• Automotive net cash flow for January to September against the €3bn to €6bn range.
• Net liquidity against the €32bn to €34bn target.
• The third-quarter margin before special items.
• Results from the Chinese joint ventures.
• Any new restructuring provisions linked to the Future Plan 2030.
• Any comment on the 2026 dividend.

Published consensus estimates for the quarter may predate the profit warning. Traders often compare reported figures with the company's own forecast for that reason.

The Volkswagen Future Plan 2030 in Numbers

On 3 September 2026, the Supervisory Board approved the Future Plan 2030 (Volkswagen Group press release). The share rose 6.5% on 4 September, then fell below that level after the profit warning two weeks later (StockAnalysis).

Source: Volkswagen Group press release, 3 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The 9% target compares with a 3.8% margin in the first half of 2026. Targets of this size can be missed or delayed. The plan also needs agreements with employee representatives.

Volkswagen Job Cuts

The plan foresees about 50,000 positions going across the group. Four German plants lack a confirmed model allocation for 2031 to 2034. This adds to execution risk at those sites.

Labour Dispute: The Risk for Early 2027

Volkswagen Wage Agreements Terminated

On 30 September 2026, Volkswagen gave notice on a long list of in-house collective agreements, effective 31 December 2026. They include the pay agreement and the Manteltarifvertrag, which sets working conditions (IG Metall).

The 2024 job-security agreement runs to the end of 2030 and is unaffected. IG Metall demands 5% more pay over 12 months plus a social component. The union says strikes are possible from January 2027 (IG Metall).

Lead negotiator Thorsten Gröger called the move "ein übles Foul an der Belegschaft", a nasty foul against the workforce. Works council chair Daniela Cavallo said she expects a fierce dispute around the turn of the year (IG Metall).

IG Metall says talks start in winter. A date for the first round has yet to be set.

The Audi Bad Weather Clause

On 8 October 2026, Audi CEO Gernot Döllner activated a 2019 "bad-weather clause" at a works meeting in Neckarsulm. Job security at Audi until the end of 2033 is now open for renegotiation. The Neckarsulm site, with about 15,000 staff, must present a cost concept by June 2027 (ms-aktuell).

Porsche and the Portfolio Moves

Porsche AG Strategy 2035

Porsche AG presented its Strategy 2035 on 7 October 2026. Porsche AG's updated planning led to the goodwill write-down at Volkswagen (Volkswagen ad hoc). Sharecast reported the new targets (Hargreaves Lansdown, Sharecast).

Source: Hargreaves Lansdown, Sharecast, 7 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

CEO Michael Leiters said at the strategy day that the main focus is on reducing costs and making the company more financially robust (Hargreaves Lansdown).

Other Portfolio Moves

Several portfolio moves could bring cash or cut costs. Their timing is still open.

Source: autohaus.de, leinetal24 and Volkswagen Group.

The Osnabrück site is due to move into defence work (leinetal24). The Everllence proceeds sit outside the 2026 forecast (Volkswagen ad hoc), so their booking could change the cash picture.

Volkswagen US Tariffs

US tariffs remain a cost factor. EU cars have faced a 15% US tariff under the 2025 trade framework. In early May 2026, President Trump said he plans to raise the rate on EU cars to 25% under Section 232 (Digital Dealer).

We could not confirm whether the higher rate has taken effect. Volkswagen's guidance assumes that today's tariff situation stays in place. China Daily quoted CEO Oliver Blume in March 2026. He said that "the direct and indirect effects of US tariffs alone amounted to some 5 billion euros" (China Daily).

The 18 September warning cut the 2026 margin outlook to up to 1%, while the cash targets stayed unchanged. The 29 October report will show how these two lines compare with actual results.

Volkswagen Stock 5 Year Performance

Past performance sets the context for any forecast. The table shows year-end Xetra closes for the preferred share.

Source: Volkswagen Annual Report 2025, share key figures (Xetra prices) and StockAnalysis for 2026. Price changes exclude dividends. Reporting period 31 December 2020 to 13 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The share reached an annual high of €246.55 in 2021 (Volkswagen Annual Report 2025, share key figures). At €68.86, it trades about 72% below that peak. For comparison, the DAX rose 23.0% in 2025 (Volkswagen Annual Report 2025).

Volkswagen Dividend: History and the 2026 Decision

Volkswagen has cut its payout twice in a row. The dividend for 2025 was €5.26 per preferred share, about 17% below the €6.36 paid for 2024.

Source: Volkswagen Annual Report 2025. Dividends are paid in the year after the financial year. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

At €68.86, the 2025 payout gives a trailing yield of about 7.6% (our calculation), before taxes and costs, which may vary. A trailing yield describes the past. Future dividends can change or be cut.

The boards will decide on the 2026 proposal in early 2027, with payment planned for June 2027 (Volkswagen ad hoc). A loss in the second half could weigh on that decision. Our guide to dividend investing explains how payout policies work.

VOW3 vs VOW: Preferred and Ordinary Shares

Volkswagen has two listed share classes. International coverage mostly refers to the Volkswagen preferred shares, VOW3.

Source: Volkswagen Annual Report 2025.

The preferred share paid a slightly higher dividend for 2025.

Who Controls Volkswagen?

The Volkswagen ownership structure is concentrated. Porsche SE holds 53.3% of the voting rights. The state of Lower Saxony holds 20.0%, and Qatar holds 17.0% (Volkswagen Annual Report 2025, shareholder structure).

Source: Volkswagen Annual Report 2025.

Under the Volkswagen law, key resolutions need a majority above 80% (Court of Justice of the EU, press release 139/13). That gives Lower Saxony's 20% stake the power of a blocking minority.

Is Volkswagen Stock Undervalued? The Ratios

Several ratios look low. Low ratios can persist for years, so they say little about timing.

Source: Volkswagen Annual Report 2025 and Volkswagen ad hoc, our calculations at €68.86. Yields shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A low price-earnings ratio can reflect cautious market sentiment. It can also reflect expected falls in profit. Earnings for 2026 will include large special items, which makes the trailing figure less useful.

Volkswagen Technical Analysis

Technical analysis studies past prices. It cannot tell anyone where a share will trade next. Our calculations use Xetra closes from StockAnalysis, and the chart levels come from published commentary.

Source: StockAnalysis (our calculations), sharedeals, 9 October 2026 and stock3, 11 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Volkswagen Support Levels

The first support zone sits at €66.60 to €67.10. A daily close below it would mark a new 2026 low. The sharedeals analyst names about €62 as the next chart target, a zone last seen in 2009 and 2010.

Volkswagen Resistance Levels

The first hurdle is €69.20, the old July low. Above it, chart watchers look at about €71 and then €73.12. The main downtrend line runs near €77, and the gap from September sits at €80 to €81. These levels come from third-party commentary, and prices can move through any of them.

Trend and Momentum

The share trades below its 20-day and 50-day averages, and both are falling. Our guide to the moving average indicator explains how traders read these lines.

The 14-day RSI near 40 shows weak momentum. The reading is still above the oversold zone. The RSI indicator guide covers how stretched readings can last for weeks.

Volkswagen Analyst Ratings and Price Targets

The table shows third-party views as listed by finanzen.net. Admirals has not reviewed the underlying research.

Source: finanzen.net, Volkswagen Vz price targets, accessed 14 October 2026. Ratings are as reported, with the earlier Jefferies view also carried by Deutsche Börse, dpa-AFX. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

How Wide Is the Consensus?

Averages differ by data provider and date. Each figure counts different brokers.

Source: finanzen.net, sharedeals and boerse-express. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The gap between the share price and the average target is large. Targets are opinions, and brokers revise them often. The €70 UBS figure sits close to the current price, which shows how far apart views are.

Volkswagen Share Price Forecast: Three Illustrative Scenarios

The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe what could happen under different conditions. Each one may or may not occur.

Source: our analysis based on the Volkswagen ad hoc and sharedeals chart levels. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

What Could Support the Share

• Cash flow inside the €3bn to €6bn range would support the view that the charges are mostly non-cash.
• A confirmed closing date for the Everllence sale could add cash.
• A labour agreement before January could lower the strike risk.
• Continued growth in European electric orders could help volumes.

What Could Weigh on the Share

• New restructuring provisions could add to the charges, since the company forecast excludes them.
• A signal of a third dividend cut could hit income-focused holders.
• Confirmation of a 25% US tariff on EU cars could raise costs.
• Strikes from January 2027 could disrupt production.
• Further write-downs in China could add to special items.

Key Dates for Volkswagen Stock

The next weeks are busy. UK clocks change on 25 October, so UK times below are GMT from that date. Times for the ECB follow its standard schedule.

Source: ACEA, Volkswagen Group, ECB and Volkswagen ad hoc. Dates can change.

Macro releases can also move the share. The Admirals economic calendar lists upcoming data with times.

How Traders Approach Volkswagen Stock

The share has reacted sharply to company news this year. On 18 September the share fell 5.6% on volume of 8.29 million shares (StockAnalysis). Prices can gap after a report and move past any chart level.

Ways to Get Exposure

Source: Admirals.

Admirals offers a Volkswagen AG-PREF CFD (#VOW3), and product availability can depend on the client's country of residence. Admirals offers the possibility to trade CFDs on shares, Forex, indices and commodities, as well as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and shares.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Our guide to CFD trading explains how these contracts work. Some traders test their approach on a demo account first. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.

A Research Checklist

• Read the ad hoc statement and the Q3 report on the Volkswagen website.
• Compare any idea with your own goals and your capacity for loss.
• Check how a fall of 20% or more would affect your overall portfolio.
• Understand all costs, including overnight financing for CFDs.
• Consider speaking to an independent financial adviser.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Volkswagen stock down in 2026?

September's profit warning, which flagged a €6bn Porsche write-down, hit the shares. Weak China sales and index selling added pressure.

When will Volkswagen report Q3 earnings?

Volkswagen has scheduled its nine-month report for 29 October 2026. It will be the first to include the Porsche write-down.

Will Volkswagen pay a dividend in 2027?

Boards decide the 2026 payout in early 2027. Any payment is planned for June 2027, and the amount remains open.

Why did Volkswagen leave the Euro Stoxx 50?

The index selects members by free-float market value. Volkswagen's lower valuation cost the preferred shares their place from 21 September.

How many jobs will Volkswagen cut?

About 50,000 positions are to go across the group under the Future Plan 2030, approved in September 2026.

What is the difference between VOW and VOW3?

VOW carries voting rights. VOW3 is the preferred share, which paid €0.06 more in dividends for 2025.

Is Volkswagen going bankrupt?

Volkswagen expects automotive net liquidity of €32bn to €34bn. Profits are under heavy pressure, and the outlook remains uncertain.

How low can Volkswagen stock go?

Chart commentators watch €66.60 as support and about €62 below it, but prices can move through any level.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

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