BMW Shares After the 2026 Profit Warning and the Road to Q3 Results
BMW shares have had a difficult 2026. BMW issued a profit warning on 16 June. It cut its 2026 automotive EBIT margin guidance from 4%-6% to 1%-3% and now expects group profit before tax to fall significantly (BMW Group). Weak sales in China and the effects of the Middle East conflict were the main reasons.
The stock closed at €55.12 on Xetra on 15 October 2026, which is 40.8% below its 2025 year-end close of €93.14 (Börsengeflüster, StockAnalysis). That puts BMW AG among the weakest stocks in the DAX this year (Der Aktionär). A five-year price table further down gives the longer view. The next test is the Q3 2026 quarterly statement, scheduled for 4 November 2026.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- BMW shares in 2026 at a glance
- Why is BMW stock falling?
- BMW Q2 2026 results in numbers
- BMW Q3 2026 deliveries
- BMW share price history: five calendar years
- How BMW compares with other DAX stocks in 2026
- BMW capital markets day 2026: the new targets
- Valuation and shareholder returns
- BMW analyst ratings and price targets
- BMW stock technical analysis
- Key dates before and after the BMW Q3 2026 earnings date
- Illustrative scenarios for the BMW stock forecast 2026
- Pros and cons for BMW shares
- Risks traders often watch
- How traders often approach BMW shares now
- Bottom line
- Frequently Asked Questions
BMW shares in 2026 at a glance
The table below sums up where the BMW share price stood on the morning of 16 October 2026. The stock was trading higher on the day, almost 10% above its 8 October intraday low.
| Metric | Value | Time or period |
|---|---|---|
| Last price | €57.12 (+3.63%) | 16 Oct 2026, 13:43 CEST (12:43 BST, 07:43 EDT) |
| Day range at that time | €55.40 to €57.28 | 16 Oct 2026, 13:43 CEST |
| Previous Xetra close | €55.12 | 15 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST (16:30 BST, 11:30 EDT) |
| Change in 2026 | −40.8% | 30 Dec 2025 close (€93.14) to 15 Oct 2026 close |
| 52-week range | €51.98 to €97.92 | Intraday prices, past 52 weeks |
| BMW market cap | €34.21 billion | 16 Oct 2026, at €57.12 |
| Shares outstanding | 598.88 million | After the share-class conversion |
| Analyst consensus | Hold, average target €68.05 | 19 analysts, 16 Oct 2026 |
| Next results | 4 November 2026 | Q3 2026 quarterly statement |
Source: StockAnalysis quote, StockAnalysis price history, StockAnalysis statistics, Börsengeflüster. Delayed data, accessed 16 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Why is BMW stock falling?
Why is BMW stock falling? Several pressures arrived in the same year. China sales slumped. Energy costs rose after the conflict in the Middle East. US tariffs weighed on margins. Then the company cut its outlook in June and again warned that 2026 would be a year of restructuring.
The 16 June 2026 profit warning
BMW published the BMW profit warning as an ad hoc release on the evening of 16 June 2026. The table shows what changed in the full-year outlook (BMW Group press release).
| 2026 guidance item | Before 16 June | After 16 June |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive deliveries | At previous year's level | Slight decrease |
| Automotive EBIT margin | 4% to 6% | 1% to 3% |
| Automotive ROCE | 6% to 10% | 1% to 5% |
| Group profit before tax | Moderate decrease | Significant decrease |
| Automotive free cash flow | Above €4.5 billion (6 May) | Above €2.5 billion |
| Dividend payout ratio | 30% to 40% of net income | Unchanged |
Source: BMW Group, 16 June 2026, BMW Group Q1 2026 release, 6 May 2026.
The shares fell about 7% the next day, according to Euronews. XTB noted that the stock had dropped to its lowest level since November 2020 (XTB).
The contrast with May is sharp. In the Q1 release of 6 May, then chief executive Oliver Zipse said BMW was "well positioned to deliver continued success, despite challenging conditions" (BMW Group). Six weeks later, his successor Milan Nedeljković said in the guidance release, "It's all about speed and efficiency" (BMW Group).
BMW China sales: the main pressure point
China was a main factor behind the BMW guidance cut. BMW said in June that the Chinese market had weakened further in the second quarter, especially for combustion cars (BMW Group). The numbers since then have stayed weak.
| China indicator | Value | Period |
|---|---|---|
| BMW Group retail sales in China | −30.2% | Q2 2026 |
| BMW Group retail sales in China | −20.4% | January to June 2026 |
| BMW Group deliveries in China | 114,355 (−24.8%) | Q3 2026 |
| BMW Group deliveries in China | −21.8% | January to September 2026 |
| China passenger car retail sales (CPCA) | 1.702 million (−24.0%) | September 2026 |
| NEV share of China retail sales (CPCA) | 67.1% | September 2026 |
Source: BMW Group Q2 2026 statement, electrive, Trading-Treff, SteelOrbis (CPCA data). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The structure of the market matters as much as the size. New energy vehicles took 67.1% of China retail sales in September. The CPCA said combustion car sales "have essentially stopped growing" (SteelOrbis). For premium brands that still sell mostly combustion models in China, this is a long-term challenge.
Middle East conflict and energy costs
BMW said the impact of the conflict in the Middle East went beyond its original assumptions (BMW Group). Elevated energy prices raise production costs. The lack of stability also hurts consumer sentiment in many markets.
Higher interest rates add to the pressure on car buyers who finance or lease. The ECB deposit rate stood at 2.50% in late September, and euro area inflation was 3.2% in August (Admirals ECB preview).
US tariffs
Tariffs cost BMW 1.25 percentage points of automotive EBIT margin in Q2 2026, CFO Walter Mertl said in the Q2 conference call (BMW Group). The EU and the US agreed in July 2025 to cap tariffs on European cars at 15%. In May 2026, the US President said he wanted to raise that rate to 25% (Journal de l'Automobile).
According to Reuters, BMW is less exposed than some rivals because of its plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina (BusinessDay, Reuters report).
Index flows after the share-class conversion
The annual general meeting in May approved converting all preference shares into ordinary shares. The conversion was completed at the end of June (Börse Express). Börse Express reports that the S&P Europe 350 and the FTSE All-World removed BMW from early July (Börse Express). Funds that track those indices would typically have needed to sell their BMW holdings.
BMW kept its place in the EURO STOXX 50. The 1 September review removed Wolters Kluwer and Volkswagen Pref from the index (STOXX).
BMW Q2 2026 results in numbers
The report for January to June, published on 30 July, confirmed the scale of the slowdown. In the call, Mertl said the results "reflect the challenging market conditions the BMW Group is currently facing" (BMW Group).
| Q2 2026 metric | Value | Change or comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Group revenue | €31.3 billion | About −8% year on year |
| Group earnings before tax | €1.7 billion | −35% year on year |
| Group EBT margin | 5.4% | 6.5% for January to June |
| Automotive EBIT | €629 million | Margin 2.3% (5.4% a year earlier) |
| Tariff burden on automotive margin | 1.25 percentage points | Q2 2026 |
| Automotive free cash flow | About €500 million | Q2 2026 |
| Group deliveries | About 591,000 | −4.9% year on year |
| BEV share of deliveries | 19.8% | Q2 2026 |
Source: BMW Group Q2 2026 statement, Börse Express. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Europe and the US held up better. Deliveries rose 7.6% in Europe and 11.9% in the US in Q2 (BMW Group). Financial Services also took a hit from a UK consumer compensation provision in the first quarter.
BMW Q3 2026 deliveries
BMW reported Q3 deliveries on 13 October. Volumes fell again, while electric models grew (electrive).
| Q3 2026 deliveries | Units | Change year on year |
|---|---|---|
| BMW Group total | 551,072 | −6.3% |
| China | 114,355 | −24.8% |
| Europe (all powertrains) | n/a | +2.7% |
| BEVs worldwide | 110,257 | +7.2% |
| BEVs in Europe | 81,941 | +37.5% |
| Group total, January to September | 1,707,799 | −4.9% |
Source: electrive, Trading-Treff. Preliminary company figures. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Jochen Goller, the board member for sales, said, "In difficult market conditions, we were able to hold our own in Europe and the US" (electrive). BEVs made up 34.7% of BMW Group deliveries in Europe in the quarter. The stock rose 2.56% on the day the data came out (StockAnalysis).
The 2026 share price slide appears to reflect a profit problem more than a volume problem. Deliveries fell 6.3% in Q3, while the automotive margin corridor was cut to 1% to 3%.
BMW share price history: five calendar years
A longer view helps put the recent price moves in context. The table shows the last five full calendar years of BMW share price history on Xetra.
| Year | Year-end close (€) | Annual change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 88.49 | +22.51% |
| 2022 | 83.38 | −5.77% |
| 2023 | 100.78 | +20.87% |
| 2024 | 78.98 | −21.63% |
| 2025 | 93.14 | +17.93% |
| 2026 to 15 October | 55.12 | −40.8% |
Source: Börsengeflüster year-end closes (Xetra), StockAnalysis. Price change only, dividends excluded. Period 1 January 2021 to 15 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Over the five full years from the end of 2020 (€72.23) to the end of 2025, the share price rose about 29%. The 2026 decline has more than wiped out that gain. The stock is now trading well below its 2020 year-end level.
How BMW compares with other DAX stocks in 2026
Is BMW the worst DAX stock of 2026? It has been close to the bottom for months. On 15 September, Der Aktionär ranked BMW third-weakest at −32.6%, behind Rheinmetall (−36%) and Heidelberg Materials (−33.2%) (Der Aktionär). By 15 October, the BMW loss had widened to about 41%.
Rheinmetall was down about 34% at the same close (ms-aktuell, StockAnalysis). A full daily ranking of all DAX members was not available, so BMW may not be the weakest DAX stock on any given day.
| Stock or index | Change in 2026 | Date of figure |
|---|---|---|
| BMW | −40.8% | 15 Oct 2026 close |
| Heidelberg Materials | −36.3% | 15 Oct 2026 close (€142.05 vs €223.00) |
| Rheinmetall | −34.3% | 15 Oct 2026 close (€1,026.00 vs €1,561) |
| Mercedes-Benz | −34% | 2 Oct 2026 close (€39.90) |
| Vonovia | −26.7% | 15 Sep 2026 |
| DAX index | About +4% | 15 Sep 2026 |
Source: Der Aktionär, Börsengeflüster (Heidelberg Materials), StockAnalysis (Heidelberg Materials), ms-aktuell (Rheinmetall year-end close), StockAnalysis (Rheinmetall), Börse Express (Mercedes-Benz). Figures use different dates, so the ranking may differ on any given day. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The gap with the index is the striking part. The DAX was up about 4% by mid-September, while BMW had lost about a third (Der Aktionär). This suggests company and sector problems more than a broad market sell-off.
BMW vs Mercedes stock
German carmakers have all struggled. Mercedes-Benz shares were down about 34% in 2026 at the 2 October close (Börse Express). Mercedes reports Q3 on 28 October, a week before BMW, so its numbers may set the tone for the sector. For a view on another peer, see our Volkswagen stock forecast.
BMW capital markets day 2026: the new targets
At the BMW capital markets day on 30 September, the company set out a recovery plan. The new targets describe a slow return to higher margins (BusinessDay, Reuters report).
| Target | Level | Time frame |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive EBIT margin | 1% to 3% | 2026 |
| Automotive EBIT margin | 3% to 5% | 2028 |
| Automotive EBIT margin | 8% to 10% | Early 2030s |
| Cut in divisions and management roles | About 20% | By mid-2027 |
| Job reductions in Germany | About 8,000 (voluntary programme) | By end-2027 |
| Entry-level EV for Europe | Launch | From 2028 |
Source: BusinessDay (Reuters), Stock-World, BMW Group. Company targets. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Nedeljković said the plan will help BMW "meet the increasingly fierce competition that will define this industry in the coming years" (BusinessDay). The main measures are listed below.
- BMW plans to cut divisions and associated management roles by a fifth by mid-2027.
- Artificial intelligence is meant to speed up decisions and simplify the organisation.
- An entry-level electric car for Europe is planned from 2028.
- A new luxury SUV is aimed at wealthier US buyers.
- In China, BMW plans more local production and more local technology partners.
- The company is studying exports from China to Southeast Asia.
The shares rose 1.50% on the day of the presentation, to €55.32 (StockAnalysis). The 2028 margin target of 3% to 5% is lower than the original 2026 corridor of 4% to 6%, which may help explain the cautious reaction.
The BMW Neue Klasse product cycle
The BMW Neue Klasse is the main argument used by the more positive analysts. BMW plans more than 40 new and updated models by 2027 (BMW Group). The Debrecen plant in Hungary moved to two shifts early because of iX3 demand. Börse Express reported more than 100,000 orders for the iX3 in July (Börse Express).
Investment continues alongside the cost cuts. About €2 billion is going into the eighth-generation 3 Series. The battery plant in Irlbach-Straßkirchen has started series production (Stock-World).
Valuation and shareholder returns
BMW market cap and PE ratio
The shares trade on low multiples of earnings and book value. Low multiples can also signal that the market expects earnings to keep falling.
| Valuation metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Share price (16 Oct, 13:43 CEST) | €57.12 |
| Market cap | €34.21 billion |
| Trailing BMW PE ratio | 5.24 |
| Forward P/E | 7.79 |
| Price to book | 0.34 |
| Trailing dividend per share (FY2025) | €4.40 |
| Consensus EPS, FY2026 | €6.75 (FY2025: €11.89) |
| Consensus EPS, FY2027 | €8.55 |
Source: StockAnalysis statistics, StockAnalysis forecast (S&P Global consensus). Delayed data, 16 October 2026. Consensus figures are estimates. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The price-to-book ratio of 0.34 means the market values BMW at about a third of its book equity. Deutsche Bank analyst Tim Rokossa put automotive net liquidity at about €43 billion in early September (wallstreet-online). That figure is a single analyst's estimate.
BMW dividend outlook
The BMW dividend for FY2025 was €4.40 per share, and the BMW ex dividend date was 14 May 2026 (StockAnalysis). That is a trailing yield of 7.7% at €57.12. This figure is before taxes and costs, which may vary.
That headline figure looks backwards. BMW pays out 30% to 40% of net income (BMW Group). With earnings expected to fall, the consensus sees the FY2026 dividend at about €2.62 per share (StockAnalysis). That would be a yield of about 4.6% at the current price. Both figures are before taxes and costs, which may vary. Dividends can change and can be cut. For background, see our guide to dividend investing.
BMW share buyback
BMW is completing a €2 billion buyback programme. The third and final tranche started on 1 July and is due to finish by 30 November 2026, five months early (BMW Group). The purchases may add steady demand while the programme runs. Once it ends, that source of demand goes away unless BMW announces a new programme. Our article on share buybacks vs dividends explains how the two compare.
BMW analyst ratings and price targets
BMW analyst ratings are split. The consensus of 19 analysts is Hold, with an average BMW price target of €68.05 (StockAnalysis). The range runs from €58 to €82.50.
| Firm (analyst) | Rating | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus (19 analysts) | Hold | €68.05 average, €66.50 median | 16 Oct 2026 |
| J.P. Morgan (Jose Asumendi) | Overweight | €82 | 13 Oct 2026 |
| UBS (Patrick Hummel) | Neutral | €60 (from €70) | 9 Oct 2026 |
| Jefferies (Philippe Houchois) | Hold | €60 (from €70) | 5 Oct 2026 |
| Bernstein (Stephen Reitman) | Outperform | €82 | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank (Tim Rokossa) | Buy | €78 (from €90) | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs (Christian Frenes) | Buy | €82 (from €84) | Early Aug 2026 |
| RBC Capital Markets | Sector Perform | €58 (from €60) | Mid-Oct 2026 |
| HSBC (Mike Tyndall) | Buy (from Hold) | €71 (from €79) | 17 Jul 2026 |
| Morningstar (Rella Suskin) | 4 stars | Fair value €80 | 18 Jun 2026 (latest public figure) |
Source: StockAnalysis, Trading-Treff, Stock-World, ms-aktuell, Börse Express, Börse Express (HSBC), Morningstar. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The more positive houses point to cash and valuation. They also cite the Neue Klasse. The more cautious ones point to China and a long road back to higher margins. UBS cut its target because of pressure from Chinese competitors ahead of the European auto earnings season (Stock-World).
What analysts expect for Q3
J.P. Morgan expects Q3 revenue of €29.7 billion and operating profit of about €1.68 billion. This is a single bank's forecast (Trading-Treff). For the full year, the S&P Global consensus sees revenue of €127.94 billion and EPS of €6.75 (StockAnalysis). These are estimates and may change before the release.
BMW stock technical analysis
The long-term trend is down. The price sits far below the BMW 200 day moving average and close to the 50-day line. The table lists the levels many chart readers watch. These levels come from published prices and are for illustration only.
| Level | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 200-day moving average | €71.50 | Far above the price, long-term downtrend |
| Resistance | €60.0 to €60.4 | 18 Sep close and breakdown area |
| 50-day moving average | €58.52 | Trend filter just above the price |
| Price (16 Oct, 13:43 CEST) | €57.12 | Testing the late-September highs |
| Resistance just passed | €55.98 to €56.88 | 15 Oct high and late-September highs |
| Support | €53.0 to €53.3 | Closes on 9 and 12 Oct |
| Support | €51.98 | 52-week intraday low, 8 Oct |
| Support | €50.00 | Round number below the low |
| RSI (14) | 53.73 | Neutral |
Source: StockAnalysis statistics, StockAnalysis price history. Delayed data, 16 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The heaviest selling of the autumn came on 18 September. The stock fell 4.46% on 6.34 million shares, more than four times the 1.51 million traded on 16 September (StockAnalysis). That day was also a quarterly index expiry date.
Since the 8 October low, the price has bounced almost 10%. Some chart readers treat a close above the 50-day average as a first sign of a change in trend. Others read a close below €52 as a sign that the downtrend is back in force. Neither signal is reliable on its own.
Key dates before and after the BMW Q3 2026 earnings date
StockAnalysis and Stock-World both give 4 November as the BMW Q3 2026 earnings date. Several other events could move the stock first. European clocks go back on 25 October, and US clocks on 1 November.
| Date | Event | CET | UK | US Eastern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | Mercedes-Benz Q3 report | Time to be confirmed | Time to be confirmed | Time to be confirmed |
| 28 Oct 2026 | US Federal Reserve rate decision | 19:00 | 18:00 GMT | 14:00 EDT |
| 29 Oct 2026 | ECB rate decision | 14:15 | 13:15 GMT | 09:15 EDT |
| 4 Nov 2026 | BMW Q3 2026 quarterly statement | Morning (time to be confirmed) | Morning | Early morning |
| 30 Nov 2026 | Target end of the third buyback tranche | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 17 Dec 2026 | ECB rate decision with new projections | 14:15 | 13:15 GMT | 08:15 EST |
Source: Börse Express, Admirals ECB preview, StockAnalysis, BMW Group. Dates can change. Check the economic calendar for updates.
Illustrative scenarios for the BMW stock forecast 2026
The scenarios below are illustrative. They show how markets could react to different outcomes. They are not predictions.
| Scenario | Possible triggers | Levels often watched |
|---|---|---|
| Positive | Q3 margin at or above estimates, 2026 targets confirmed, a new capital return plan | A move above the 50-day average (€58.52), then €60 to €64 |
| Neutral | Q3 broadly in line, guidance kept at the low end | A range of about €52 to €58 |
| Negative | A margin near zero, another guidance cut, weaker cash flow | A break below €52, then €50 |
Scenarios are hypothetical and for illustration only. Source of levels: StockAnalysis. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Outside events also matter in each case. A further drop in China sales could weigh on the shares. A rise in US tariffs on EU cars to 25% could do the same. A calmer energy market could help, while another spike in oil prices could hurt.
Pros and cons for BMW shares
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Low valuation, with a trailing P/E of 5.24 | Earnings are expected to fall sharply in 2026 |
| Strong order intake for the iX3 | China deliveries fell 24.8% in Q3 |
| Growth in Europe and the US in 2026 | Margins may take years to recover to 8% to 10% |
| A buyback programme running until November | The buyback ends on 30 November |
| Automotive net liquidity of about €43 billion (Deutsche Bank estimate) | The dividend is expected to fall with profits |
| A full new product cycle with the Neue Klasse | Tariffs and energy costs are outside BMW's control |
Source: StockAnalysis, electrive, BMW Group, wallstreet-online.
Risks traders often watch
- China could keep losing share to local electric car makers.
- Restructuring charges are expected later in 2026.
- US tariff policy could change again.
- Higher interest rates may weigh on car financing and leasing.
- BMW recalled about 744,234 vehicles worldwide over a fire risk, according to Börse Express.
- A smaller market value could put the EURO STOXX 50 place at risk at a future review.
- The 2028 targets depend on a smooth Neue Klasse ramp-up.
The recall figure comes from Börse Express. Restructuring costs of up to 1.25 percentage points of margin are already in the 2026 guidance. This is a separate item from the tariff burden of the same size (BMW Group).
How traders often approach BMW shares now
German carmaker shares have moved sharply on company news this year, as the fall of about 7% after the June warning showed (Euronews). Traders often watch a few things around the Q3 release.
- They compare the automotive EBIT margin with the 1% to 3% corridor set in June.
- They check whether the free cash flow target above €2.5 billion still holds.
- They look for news on capital returns after the buyback ends.
- They follow monthly China data from the CPCA.
- They read Mercedes-Benz results on 28 October for sector signals.
Ways to gain exposure to German stocks
Admirals offers stocks and ETFs, as well as CFDs on shares, Forex, indices and commodities. BMW is listed as an Invest.MT5 stock on Xetra on the BMW instrument page. You can read more about the Invest.MT5 account and the range of stocks on offer. The value of shares can fall as well as rise, and investors may get back less than they invest.
Some traders prefer index exposure. Our guide on DAX trading covers how the index works. CFDs let traders go long or short. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. You can learn the basics in our article on CFD trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
A demo account uses virtual funds, so it can help you practise first. Results may differ from live trading. Demo and live accounts are available on MetaTrader 5.
Bottom line
BMW shares have lost about 41% in 2026 to the 15 October close. The decline followed a profit warning and a slump in China. A new set of slower margin targets added to the pressure. Supporters point to a low valuation and a strong product cycle. Sceptics point to falling earnings and a long recovery path. The Q3 statement on 4 November is the next fixed point for the stock.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is BMW stock down so much in 2026?
A profit warning in June hit the shares. Weak China sales and US tariffs also cut expected earnings.
How much has BMW stock fallen?
BMW shares closed at €55.12 on 15 October 2026, down 40.8% from the 2025 year-end close of €93.14.
When does BMW report earnings?
BMW is scheduled to publish its Q3 2026 quarterly statement on 4 November 2026, before its full-year results next year.
Is the BMW dividend safe?
Dividends can be cut. BMW pays out 30% to 40% of net income, so the FY2026 dividend may fall.
What do analysts say about BMW stock?
The consensus of 19 analysts is Hold. The average price target is €68.05, within a range of €58 to €82.50.
Is BMW stock undervalued?
Its trailing P/E is about 5.2 and price to book about 0.34, which can reflect expected profit declines.
What is the BMW ISIN?
BMW shares trade on Xetra under the ticker BMW. The ISIN is DE0005190003, and the stock is in the DAX.
What happened at the BMW capital markets day?
BMW targeted an automotive EBIT margin of 3% to 5% for 2028 and 8% to 10% in the early 2030s.
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