FOMC October 2026: Fed Holds Rates in a 10-2 Vote as Markets Price a December Hike
The Federal Reserve kept the fed funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. The FOMC statement came at 14:00 ET (18:00 UK time). The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack both wanted a 25 basis point (bp) hike, according to the Federal Reserve.
Many market commentators read the decision as a hawkish hold. Futures still priced about an 85% chance of a hike on 9 December, according to Yahoo Finance. By mid-afternoon in New York, the 10-year Treasury yield was about 5.04%, up 5 bp on the day. Gold was about 0.4% lower on the day, and the S&P 500 stayed close to flat. Every price below carries its time stamp, because 28 October closing prints were not yet available when this article was written.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- FOMC October 2026: The Short Answers
- What Did the Fed Decide on 28 October 2026?
- Why Did the Fed Hold Rates?
- What Kevin Warsh Said at the FOMC Press Conference
- FOMC Market Reaction: The First Hours
- Five-Year Context: How Markets Moved From 2021 to 2025
- Will the Fed Raise Rates in December?
- Global Central Banks in the Coming Days
- Technical Levels Traders Watch
- Illustrative Scenarios Into December
- Key Dates After the FOMC Decision
- How to Trade the Fed Decision: What Traders Often Watch
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Bottom Line
FOMC October 2026: The Short Answers
The table sums up the main facts. Details and sources follow in each section.
Source: Federal Reserve, Reuters via Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, intraday data on 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Key takeaways for traders:
- The Fed paused after its 16 September hike, the first increase since July 2023, as covered in the Admirals October Fed preview.
- Two officials voted for an immediate hike, which suggests a tightening bias remains.
- The front end of the Treasury curve rallied during the press conference.
- The longer end stayed above 5%, close to its highest levels since the 2000s.
- EUR/USD hovered near 1.1135 at the decision, just above the May 2025 low it touched earlier in October, according to BNN Bloomberg.
What Did the Fed Decide on 28 October 2026?
The Decision and the FOMC 10-2 Vote
The Committee left the range at 3.75%-4.00%. It also kept its policy of ample reserves in the banking system. The statement lists Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack as the two dissenters. Both preferred a quarter-point hike.
September's vote was 12-0, as noted in the Admirals Fed preview. A split vote is a notable shift in only six weeks. Before the meeting, Fed funds futures put a hold at about 90.6%, according to Yahoo Finance. So the hold itself was widely expected.
Why the Lisa Cook Dissent Stood Out
Hammack also dissented in favour of a hike in July, according to the same Admirals preview. Cook's vote was the surprise for many analysts. David Krakauer of Mercer Advisors said "Cook's dissent is the surprise", in comments collected by Reuters.
Cook is also the governor whom President Trump is seeking to remove from the Board. A White House committee plans a closed hearing on 5 November, as reported by American Banker. Asked whether the Fed was involved in that process, Chair Kevin Warsh answered "not to my knowledge".
What Changed in the FOMC Statement
The statement is short. Its wording still matters, because markets compare every phrase with September.
Source: Federal Reserve statement, 28 October 2026 and Reuters via Investing.com.
The new guidance still ties policy to "a timely return of inflation" to 2%. Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management called the forward guidance "decidedly vague", in remarks gathered by Reuters. That vagueness may help explain why the dollar eased after the statement.
Administered Rates After the Decision
The Implementation Note kept the technical rates in line with the range.
Source: Federal Reserve Implementation Note, 28 October 2026.
Why Did the Fed Hold Rates?
The Fed faces two forces pulling in opposite directions. Inflation is rising again, led by energy. At the same time, hiring has slowed sharply and financial conditions have already tightened.
Inflation Is Running Hot
Headline inflation jumped in September. Petrol prices did much of the work. Core measures are firmer than the Fed would like, although they diverge.
Source: BLS CPI release, September 2026 and BEA core PCE price index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Core PCE for August, at 3.0%, sits above core CPI for September, at 2.6%. The two measures cover different months and baskets, and both come from official releases. The Fed targets PCE inflation, so the 3.0% reading carries more weight in its debates.
Jobs Are Soft, Growth Looks Strong
The labour market sends a softer signal. Payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, and unemployment was 4.2%, according to the BLS employment report. The rate has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.
Growth looks firmer. Continuum Economics expects third-quarter GDP growth of 2.8% annualised in its preview. The release is due on 29 October at 08:30 ET.
The Oil Shock From the Iran War
Energy is the main inflation driver this autumn. Brent closed near $117.4 a barrel on 23 October, its highest close since 19 March, according to Euronews. It traded near $72 before the Iran war began in late February.
Brent then fell more than 6% on 26 October as diplomacy gathered pace, Euronews reported. US crude for December delivery was up 2.9% at $102.80 at 15:29 ET on 28 October, per Yahoo Finance.
Financial Conditions Have Already Tightened
Warsh said conditions have "tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect". He added: "I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight." Both quotes come from American Banker's live coverage of the press conference.
One reading is that the September hike may be starting to take effect. Higher long-term yields may also be doing part of the Fed's work, which could give the Committee room to wait for more data.
What Kevin Warsh Said at the FOMC Press Conference
"A Heck of a Family Fight"
Warsh described the meeting as "a heck of a family fight", calling it "a serious, sober discussion", as quoted by American Banker. He said he would not respond to comments from elected officials.
Asked about the midterm elections on 3 November, Warsh said politics did not influence the decision, according to the same American Banker report. He also said he heard nothing about politics during the meeting.
A New FOMC Schedule From 2027
Warsh announced a change to how the Committee meets, as reported by Newsquawk and American Banker.
Source: Newsquawk and American Banker, 28 October 2026. The 2028 total assumes eight meetings, in line with Warsh's comment that eight a year is the right number.
The strategy sessions will skip the rate vote and the statement. Fewer decision meetings could make each remaining one more important for markets. The Fed also plans a conference on productivity and jobs on 16 November, according to American Banker.
FOMC Market Reaction: The First Hours
The reaction was calm on the surface. Underneath, the yield curve steepened. Short-term yields fell during the press conference, while long-term yields rose.
Intraday snapshots on 28 October 2026, before the US cash close. Closing levels may differ. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Treasury Yields After the Fed Decision
The 2-year yield is the most sensitive to Fed policy. It edged up to 4.774% in the minutes after the statement. It then fell to about 4.70% after Warsh spoke, a drop of roughly 7 bp in just over an hour.
The 10-year moved the other way. It rose to about 5.04% by 15:25 ET. Its recent closing high was 5.31% on 5 October, as noted in the Admirals Fed decision preview. For background, see why the 10-year yield near 5% matters for other markets.
A steeper curve often reflects two views at once. Traders may expect fewer hikes in the short run. They may also demand more compensation to hold long bonds while inflation stays high.
US Dollar and DXY After FOMC
The dollar index was about 0.2% lower at 15:25 ET, according to Reuters. Earlier that day it had touched 102.37, a two-week high, per BNN Bloomberg.
Karl Schamotta of Corpay called two dissents "a dovish surprise at the margin", as quoted by Reuters. Many had expected three or four. The dollar's mild dip fits that reading.
EUR/USD After FOMC
EUR/USD traded near 1.1135 at the decision, per investingLive. The ECB reference rate was 1.1133 on 28 October, down from 1.1750 at the end of 2025, according to the European Central Bank. That is a fall of about 5.3% so far this year.
The pair had slid for five sessions in a row before the meeting, as reported by ATFX. ATFX also cited concerns over France's public finances as a weight on the euro. The ECB decides on 29 October, so the pair faces a second event within 24 hours. Readers new to the pair can start with the guide to trading the euro against the dollar.
Gold Price After FOMC
Gold futures were down 0.40% at $4,058.10 at 15:29 ET, per Yahoo Finance. Gold fell below $4,000 on 23 October after its worst week in five months, touching $3,995.81, according to 24/7 Wall St.
The metal hit a record near $5,590 an ounce on 28 January 2026, according to MetalCharts. At $4,058, it sits about 27% below that peak. Gold pays nothing, so higher bond yields raise the cost of holding it. A firm dollar adds pressure, since gold is priced in dollars.
S&P 500 After FOMC
The S&P 500 was up 0.10% at 7,730.35 at 15:29 ET, per Yahoo Finance. That left it about 1.1% below its record close of 7,818.93 on 6 October, reported by Portfolio Terminal.
Chipmakers supported the tech sector on 28 October, according to Yahoo Finance. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, and their spending plans on AI may also influence the index. The index was up about 12.9% on price in 2026 to 27 October, based on the SPY proxy at ChartRow. That figure is before taxes and costs, which may vary, and the five-year table below gives context.
Five-Year Context: How Markets Moved From 2021 to 2025
Single-day moves look small next to the past five years. The table shows full calendar years only.
Period: 31 December 2020 to 31 December 2025, full calendar years. Changes are close to close, before taxes and costs, which may vary. Sources: S&P 500 from ChartRow. Gold from MetalCharts 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. EUR/USD from the ECB. DXY from Convex 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. DXY changes are computed from these year-end closes, so they may differ from the annual changes Convex shows. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The table shows how uneven these years were. The S&P 500 lost 19.4% in 2022, when the Fed hiked fast. Gold fell slightly in 2021 and 2022, then rose sharply in 2024 and 2025. Based on intraday prices on 28 October, gold is about 6% below its 2025 close in 2026 so far. The dollar index is about 4% higher over the same period.
Will the Fed Raise Rates in December?
What Futures Price
Market odds for a December hike stayed high on the day of the decision.
Market-implied probabilities change constantly. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Further out, futures pointed to a fed funds rate near 4.7% by September 2027, per Yahoo Finance. That implies about three more quarter-point hikes. A December hike would lift the range to 4.00%-4.25%.
The September Dot Plot
The Fed's September projections already showed a hawkish bias. Sixteen of 18 officials saw at least one more hike in 2026.
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The 2026 and 2027 medians for the fed funds rate are both 4.1%. That is the source data, and it signals one more hike followed by a flat path. New projections arrive on 9 December.
What Analysts Said After the Decision
Views split between a near-certain December hike and a more patient Fed.
Sources: Reuters via Investing.com and Kiplinger. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The hold bought the Fed time. With 16 of 18 officials already pencilling in another hike, the December decision may hinge on the next inflation and jobs reports.
Global Central Banks in the Coming Days
The Fed was one of several central banks in action. More decisions follow in the days ahead, which keeps the economic calendar busy.
Sources: Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, Admirals central banks week preview and ECB meeting preview.
The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 2.5%. It cited higher oil prices and inflation that "has risen in most countries". Tightening by other central banks may limit how far the dollar rises against other currencies.
Technical Levels Traders Watch
The levels below come from third-party analysis published between 23 and 28 October, plus recent closing levels. They are reference points, and prices can move through them quickly around news.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
Levels as published on 27-28 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The daily RSI was near 30, close to oversold territory, according to Tradingpedia. Oversold readings can last for some time in a strong trend.
Gold Price Technical Analysis
Levels as published on 23-28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
For a longer view, see the Admirals gold price outlook before the FOMC.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
Support and resistance labels are for reference only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Illustrative Scenarios Into December
The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe how markets have often reacted to similar mixes of data, and outcomes could differ.
Illustrative scenarios based on the triggers above, partly drawn from the Admirals Fed preview. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Hawkish and Dovish Readings Side by Side
Source: Federal Reserve, Reuters via Investing.com and BLS.
Key Dates After the FOMC Decision
US clocks go back on 1 November. From then, UK time is five hours ahead of New York.
Sources: BLS release schedule, Continuum Economics, Admirals central banks week preview and Fed preview. Dates can change.
Live times for each release are on the Admirals economic calendar.
How to Trade the Fed Decision: What Traders Often Watch
Many traders treat the days after an FOMC meeting as a period of data risk. The guide on how to trade a Fed rate decision explains the basics. Common habits include the following.
- Traders often compare the 2-year yield with Fed funds futures to judge how much tightening is priced.
- Many watch the core PCE release on 29 October as the next test for December odds.
- Some analysts track Brent closely, since energy drove much of the September CPI jump.
- Spreads can widen sharply around big releases, so many traders check costs before the event.
- Risk management tools such as stop-loss orders are often used, although they may not protect against gaps.
- Position size is usually set with the worst case in mind.
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex pairs such as EUR/USD. It also offers CFDs on commodities like gold, plus CFDs on indices. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Risks to Watch
- Energy prices could jump again if tensions around Hormuz rise.
- A 10-year yield above 5.3% could add strain to valuations and mortgages.
- Weak AI spending news from big tech could hit equity sentiment.
- A sharp drop in payrolls could revive talk of stagflation.
- Pressure on Fed independence could raise term premiums.
- Japanese authorities may act if the yen weakens towards 160 per dollar.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did the Fed hold rates today?
Yes. On 28 October 2026 the Fed held its target range at 3.75%-4.00% after a 10-2 vote.
Who dissented at the October FOMC meeting?
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented. Both preferred a 25 basis point hike at this meeting.
What time was the Fed announcement?
The statement came at 14:00 ET, which was 18:00 UK time. Warsh's press conference started at 14:30 ET.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
Futures priced about an 85% chance on 28 October. The outcome depends on upcoming inflation and jobs data.
What does the Fed decision mean for gold?
Gold was 0.4% lower at 15:29 ET. Higher bond yields and a firm dollar have weighed on it in October.
What does the Fed decision mean for the dollar?
The dollar index eased about 0.2% by mid-afternoon. A December hike could support it, while weak data could weigh.
When are the next FOMC minutes released?
Minutes of the 28 October meeting are due around 18 November 2026, three weeks after the decision, at 14:00 ET.
Bottom Line
The Fed paused. Two dissents and a stronger growth description kept the door open to another hike. Markets priced December as likely. Even so, the front end rallied during the press conference. The next few data releases could move those odds in either direction.
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