Warsh Press Conference: Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4% as Cook and Hammack Vote for a Hike
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range 3.75% to 4% in place on Wednesday 28 October 2026 after a 10-2 vote, according to the FOMC statement. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against. Both wanted a quarter-point hike. At the Warsh press conference that followed, Fed chair Kevin Warsh said growth is strong and inflation is too high. He gave markets little hint about December.
Here are the main answers in brief. Rates are on hold after the September hike. Warsh said financial conditions are tighter, although he would not call them tight. He also announced a change to the meeting calendar from autumn 2027. Futures still price a high chance of a hike on 9 December. Markets moved only a little.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Warsh Press Conference Summary: The Key Facts
- What Did the Fed Do Today?
- What Did Warsh Say Today?
- Growth: "Expanding at a Strong Pace"
- Inflation: "Our Responsibility to Get Inflation Down"
- Financial Conditions: Tighter, Though Not "Tight"
- Kevin Warsh Monetary Medicine Remark
- Kevin Warsh Forward Guidance and the Dot Plot
- Politics and the Midterms
- What Did Warsh Say About AI and Oil?
- Warsh Press Conference Quotes With Times
- Fed Meeting Schedule 2027: A Strategy Meeting Without a Vote
- Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction
- Will the Fed Hike in December?
- The Data Behind the Decision
- Five-Year Context: How Today Compares
- Fed December Rate Hike: Illustrative Scenarios
- Economic Calendar November 2026: Key Dates Before the Fed December 9 Decision
- Trading Around the Fed Meeting: What Traders Often Watch
- Risks to Watch After the Warsh Press Conference
- Frequently Asked Questions
- What Is the Fed Funds Rate Now?
- Who Dissented at the October 2026 FOMC Meeting?
- What Time Was the Warsh Press Conference in the UK?
- What Did Warsh Say About Financial Conditions?
- Will the Fed Hike in December 2026?
- How Is the FOMC Meeting Schedule Changing?
- Does Warsh Submit a Dot to the Dot Plot?
- When Is the Next FOMC Meeting?
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Warsh Press Conference Summary: The Key Facts
The table below collects the main facts from the FOMC statement October 2026 and the press conference. Times are shown in US Eastern Time (ET) and UK time. The UK moved to GMT on 25 October, while the US stays on daylight time until 1 November. This week, UK time is ET plus four hours.
Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, Federal Reserve, Implementation Note and Federal Reserve, meeting calendar, accessed 28 October 2026.
Warsh Press Conference Highlights
- The Fed held rates for the first time since its September hike.
- Two officials dissented in favour of an immediate hike.
- Warsh described growth as strong and inflation as elevated.
- He said financial conditions have tightened for some households and businesses.
- He repeated that he does not submit a projection to the dot plot.
- He said he does not believe in forward guidance outside a crisis.
- One FOMC meeting in 2027 will focus only on strategy, without a rate vote.
The S&P 500 is often the first place traders look for the equity reaction to a Fed decision. The chart below tracks a US 500 index CFD.
What Did the Fed Do Today?
The FOMC kept the target range at 3.75% to 4% and said it will continue to maintain ample reserves in the banking system. It was the last meeting before the US midterm elections on 3 November.
A hold was the expected outcome, and ING Think had forecast it in its preview. The surprise came from the two dissents, both in a hawkish direction. For background on what markets expected before the meeting, see our Fed rate decision preview for October 2026.
FOMC Statement October 2026 Compared With September
The wording changed in a few important places. The table compares the two statements line by line.
Source: Federal Reserve, statement of 28 October 2026 and Federal Reserve, statement of 16 September 2026, accessed 28 October 2026.
The new forward-looking sentence reads as a pause for data. The closing line keeps a firm tone. Before the meeting, Russell Investments said it expected a "hawkish hold", according to Kiplinger.
Fed IORB 3.90% and the Implementation Note
The implementation note sets the technical rates that keep the federal funds rate inside its range. These rates take effect on 29 October.
Source: Federal Reserve, Implementation Note, 28 October 2026, accessed 28 October 2026.
Who Dissented at the FOMC?
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented. Both preferred to raise the range by a quarter point, as the statement records. It was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Board in 2022, according to American Banker.
The statement gives only a one-line reason for each dissent. Fuller explanations may follow in the coming days. Asked about the split, Warsh said the committee had "just come out of a family fight, a serious, sober discussion", as reported by Newsquawk.
What Did Warsh Say Today?
The Fed has published a preliminary transcript of the opening statement. The Q&A points below come from live coverage by news services. Check the full Warsh press conference transcript on the Fed website for exact wording.
Growth: "Expanding at a Strong Pace"
Warsh opened with an upbeat view of the economy. He said first-half GDP growth was revised up from 1.8% to 2.4%. He added that third-quarter growth was likely running above 3%, led by consumer spending. Business investment was likely rising "at about a double-digit pace", per the Fed transcript.
He also noted that the jobless rate is lower than a year ago. In his words, conditions on the employment side of the mandate are "quite positive".
Inflation: "Our Responsibility to Get Inflation Down"
The tone on prices was firm. "It's our responsibility to get inflation down," Warsh said, according to the transcript. He said inflation has run above the Fed's goal for close to six years. He also flagged that energy and related prices "have moved higher again in recent weeks".
In the Q&A he added that the Fed has a 2% target measured by PCE inflation. He said there is neither a soft target nor an implicit one, as reported by Newsquawk.
Financial Conditions: Tighter, Though Not "Tight"
This was the line markets focused on. "While overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call them tight," Warsh said in his opening statement. He said credit has tightened for some businesses and households "much as we would expect".
He also said market participants are becoming "somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations", per the transcript. He added that these developments point towards a longer period of growth and price stability.
Kevin Warsh Monetary Medicine Remark
In the Q&A, Warsh said the "overwhelming judgement" at the FOMC is that "monetary medicine is starting to work", according to Newsquawk. He meant that the September hike is feeding through to credit and asset prices. The statement itself says that more information will help the committee set its policy stance.
Kevin Warsh Forward Guidance and the Dot Plot
Warsh said he does not believe in forward guidance in the absence of a crisis, and that he will not pre-judge meetings, per Newsquawk. He also confirmed that he does not submit a dot and does not plan to, as reported in a separate Newsquawk headline.
For traders, this means less signalling between meetings. Each data release may carry more weight as a result.
Politics and the Midterms
Warsh said politics did not play any role in the decision. He added that he did not hear a single mention of politics in two days of meetings, according to Yahoo Finance live coverage. The meeting took place six days before the 3 November midterm elections.
What Did Warsh Say About AI and Oil?
On AI, Warsh said he had been sceptical that interest rates affect AI investment. He has since seen that they do, according to Newsquawk.
On oil, Warsh said rising oil prices and market interest rates had moved together until recently. Lately, rates have rolled over while oil futures have climbed, as reported by Newsquawk.
Warsh Press Conference Quotes With Times
Source: Federal Reserve, preliminary transcript, Newsquawk headlines and IBTimes, accessed 28 October 2026. Times are live-feed times and may differ slightly between services.
Fed Meeting Schedule 2027: A Strategy Meeting Without a Vote
The biggest institutional news came at the start. Warsh said "eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC". He added that in 2027 "one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy". Neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement is anticipated at that meeting, per the Fed transcript.
Source: Federal Reserve, preliminary transcript of 28 October 2026 and Federal Reserve, meeting calendar, accessed 28 October 2026. The 2028 figures are Warsh's stated expectation.
Warsh said the strategy meetings leave time for "thinking anew about big questions", according to the transcript. The Fed calendar page did not yet show which 2027 meeting changes at the time of writing. The change starts in autumn 2027, so the 2027 strategy meeting is likely to fall late in that year.
Fewer rate-setting meetings and a Chair without a dot both mean less signalling from the Fed. Each data release may now carry more weight for Fed pricing.
Why the Change Matters for Markets
Fewer policy meetings could mean larger moves at each one. Less communication between meetings could also add to volatility. Longer strategy debates may also improve decisions over time.
Qualitative summary based on the Fed transcript and live coverage.
Warsh Press Conference Market Reaction
The Warsh press conference market reaction was muted. Stocks edged up, yields stayed close to 5% and oil rose on Middle East headlines. The S&P 500 had fallen on six straight Fed decision days before today, according to Yahoo Finance.
Stock Market After Fed: Snapshot
Source: Yahoo Finance, stock market today, 28 October 2026, accessed 28 October 2026. Intraday levels change during the session. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close, according to the same Yahoo Finance page. Earnings season is another driver for equities. With 24% of S&P 500 companies reported, 83% had beaten earnings estimates, according to FactSet on 23 October.
#### S&P 500 Support and Resistance
Source: FXEmpire technical analysis, published 13:27 ET on 28 October 2026. Technical levels are illustrative and are not a reliable indicator of future results.
US 10 Year Yield and Treasury Yields After Fed
The US 10 year yield rose 5 bp to 5.042% after Warsh began speaking, according to Reuters via Yahoo Finance. The 2-year yield, the most sensitive to Fed policy, fell 3.8 bp to 4.7%. The 10-year par yield closed at 5.31% on 5 October, its highest close this month, according to US Treasury data. The same data show a 28 October close of 5.05% for the 10-year and 4.67% for the 2-year.
Source: Reuters via Yahoo Finance, FOMC holds rates steady, snapshot taken after the press conference began, accessed 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Higher long-term yields also feed into borrowing costs. The 30-year US mortgage rate was about 7.4% on 28 October, per Yahoo Finance. Our explainer on the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% covers the bond story in more depth.
Warsh Dollar Reaction and EUR/USD
The dollar slipped against the euro during the press conference, according to Yahoo Finance. Before the decision, EUR/USD traded at 1.11495 at 13:04 ET, per FXEmpire. The ECB decides on Thursday, which may move the pair again.
#### EUR/USD Support and Resistance
Source: FXEmpire, 12:58 ET on 28 October 2026. Technical levels are illustrative and are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Gold Price After Warsh
Gold went into the decision under pressure from high yields. Before the US open, analysts at FXEmpire were watching whether XAU/USD could hold $4,015 support. Higher real yields tend to weigh on gold, because the metal pays nothing. These levels date from before the decision, so a live quote shows the move after Warsh spoke. For more context, see our gold price analysis.
Source: FXEmpire, XAU/USD technical analysis, 02:30 ET on 28 October 2026. Technical levels are illustrative and are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Oil Price and Rate Hikes
WTI crude for December settled at $102.78 per barrel, up $2.88, according to Newsquawk. The same wrap linked the rise to US-Iran tensions and reports of US military movements in the Middle East. Oil matters for the Fed because petrol prices feed straight into headline inflation.
Will the Fed Hike in December?
Markets see a hike as likely. Futures priced about an 85% chance of a 25 bp hike on 9 December after the press conference, according to Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance. Traders also see the policy rate rising to nearly 4.7% by September 2027.
Warsh himself gave markets very little signal on December. He said he will not pre-judge meetings.
Fed Funds Futures Today and Other Pricing
Market-implied probabilities change constantly. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Bank Forecasts for a Fed December Hike
Source: Investing.com (Reuters factbox), ING Think and Yahoo Finance, accessed 28 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Views differ on timing. Facet's Tom Graff told Reuters via Yahoo Finance he believes the Fed should have hiked today. ING expects a long pause after a December hike, per ING Think. A softer run of inflation data could change the picture.
Fed Summary of Economic Projections September 2026
The Fed did not publish new projections today. The next set arrives on 9 December. The September medians still frame the Fed rate outlook.
Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. The medians for the rate in 2026 and 2027 are both 4.1%, and the unemployment median is flat at 4.1%. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
A 4.1% midpoint for 2026 implies one more quarter-point hike this year. In the FOMC dot plot, 12 of 18 participants pencilled in that path, according to the September projections. Warsh does not submit a dot.
The Data Behind the Decision
Warsh stressed that the Fed is focused on the price side of its mandate. The latest figures show why.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. GDPNow is a model estimate, and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The Fed balance sheet stood at $6.754 trillion in the latest H.4.1 data shown above. The FOMC statement says the Fed will continue to maintain ample reserves.
Five-Year Context: How Today Compares
Today's moves look small next to the past five years. The tables below show the previous five full calendar years for the main assets in this article.
S&P 500 Yearly Change, 2021 to 2025
Source: Wikipedia, S&P 500 yearly data and DQYDJ, 2025 S&P 500 return, price index, accessed 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The index fell 19.44% in 2022, the year the Fed raised rates quickly. It then rose in each of the next three years.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield, Year-End 2021 to 2025
Source: US Treasury daily par yield curve for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025, last trading day. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
At 5.042% today, the 10-year yield is roughly 86 bp above its 2025 year-end level.
Gold Yearly Change in US Dollars, 2021 to 2025
Source: In Gold We Trust, performance table for gold and silver, accessed 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The strong gains of 2024 and 2025 came after two weak years in 2021 and 2022.
Fed December Rate Hike: Illustrative Scenarios
The scenarios below are illustrative only. They show how markets have often reacted to similar outcomes. Actual reactions may differ.
Illustrative scenarios based on market pricing and analyst views cited above. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Economic Calendar November 2026: Key Dates Before the Fed December 9 Decision
The run to December is busy. The FOMC December meeting falls one day before the November CPI report, so the committee will decide before that data is out. Here are the main dates, with UK times adjusted for the US clock change on 1 November.
Source: BEA release schedule, BLS employment schedule, BLS CPI schedule, Federal Reserve calendar, ECB calendar and Bank of England MPC dates, accessed 28 October 2026.
The FOMC minutes October 2026 may give more detail on the dissents and the hike debate. Our guide to FOMC minutes and what to watch explains how markets usually read them. You can follow every release on the Admirals economic calendar.
For Thursday's data, the consensus sees Q3 GDP growth at 3.0% and core PCE at 0.3% m/m, per the Newsquawk week-ahead preview. A reading above that may support hike pricing.
Trading Around the Fed Meeting: What Traders Often Watch
This section describes common market practice. It is general information, and you should make your own decisions based on your circumstances.
Trading FOMC Volatility
Fed days often bring sharp moves within minutes. Spreads can widen around the statement and the press conference. Prices can also reverse quickly as the Chair speaks.
Traders often watch these points:
- The exact wording changes in the statement.
- The vote count and any dissents.
- The first reaction in short-term yields.
- Shifts in futures pricing for the next meeting.
- The tone of the Chair's answers on inflation.
FOMC Trading Strategy: Pros and Cons of Trading Around the Fed
Qualitative summary for educational purposes.
Some traders prefer to wait until the press conference ends before acting. Others reduce position sizes or use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Stop-loss orders may not always protect against gaps or slippage.
Instruments Linked to the Fed
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex, indices and commodities. You can explore index CFDs, Forex trading on pairs such as EUR/USD, and commodity CFDs including gold and crude oil. These products are available on the MetaTrader 5 platform.
Readers who want to practise first can open a demo account. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
For more background on how bonds drive other assets, read our article on why the bond market drives every other market. The September hike is covered in our piece on the Fed raising rates to 3.75% to 4%.
Risks to Watch After the Warsh Press Conference
- Oil prices could climb further if tensions in the Middle East escalate.
- Long-term yields could rise if the November refunding adds supply pressure.
- Fewer signals from the Fed could make data releases more volatile.
- The midterm result on 3 November could shift views on Fed independence.
- A strong inflation print could raise the odds of a larger hike.
- A sharp fall in technology stocks could tighten financial conditions further.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is the Fed Funds Rate Now?
The federal funds target range is 3.75% to 4% after the Fed held rates on 28 October 2026.
Who Dissented at the October 2026 FOMC Meeting?
Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented, as both preferred an immediate quarter-point rate hike.
What Time Was the Warsh Press Conference in the UK?
The press conference began at 14:30 ET, which was 18:30 in the UK on 28 October.
What Did Warsh Say About Financial Conditions?
He said conditions have tightened. Even so, he said he is unwilling and unable to call them tight.
Will the Fed Hike in December 2026?
Futures priced about an 85% chance of a December hike, although Warsh gave markets very little signal.
How Is the FOMC Meeting Schedule Changing?
In autumn 2027, one of the eight meetings will focus on strategy only, without any vote on rates.
Does Warsh Submit a Dot to the Dot Plot?
Warsh said he does not submit a dot and does not plan to submit one in future projections.
When Is the Next FOMC Meeting?
The next FOMC meeting is on 8 and 9 December 2026, with the decision due at 14:00 ET.
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