FOMC Minutes October 2026: Release Time and What to Watch

Admirals
Admirals Expert Verified
Oct 5, 2026

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee from the 15-16 September meeting are due on Wednesday, 7 October 2026. The Fed minutes release time is 2:00 pm ET, which is 19:00 in London and 20:00 in Frankfurt.

This is the meeting where the Fed lifted rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first Fed rate hike since 2023, and all 12 voters backed it. The September FOMC minutes may show how many officials want to keep going and how fast.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

A lot has changed since that meeting. Core PCE inflation came in at 3.0% for August, and the September jobs report showed only 29,000 new jobs. After those releases, futures-implied odds of an October hike fell from about 70% to roughly 20%.

That puts extra weight on the tone of the text. This FOMC minutes preview covers the release time and the debate inside the Fed. It also looks at the market data in focus.

Table of Contents

Fed Minutes Key Takeaways at a Glance

Question Short answer
When are the Fed minutes released? Wednesday, 7 October 2026, at 2:00 pm ET (19:00 BST).
Which meeting do they cover? The FOMC meeting held on 15-16 September 2026.
What did the Fed decide? A 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%, with a 12-0 vote.
What is the current Fed interest rate? A target range of 3.75%-4.00% for the federal funds rate.
What do futures price for October? About an 80% chance of a hold, based on futures data on 5 October.
When is the next rate decision? Wednesday, 28 October 2026.

What Time Are the FOMC Minutes Released?

The Fed publishes minutes three weeks after each policy decision, at 2:00 pm Eastern Time. The FOMC minutes release date for the September meeting is 7 October 2026. You can confirm this on the Fed's official FOMC calendar. Local times for the FOMC minutes 7 October 2026 release are below.

Location FOMC Minutes Time on 7 October
New York (ET) 14:00
UTC 18:00
London (BST) 19:00
Central Europe (CEST) 20:00
Athens (EEST) 21:00
Seychelles (SCT) 22:00

The UK and EU move their clocks back on 25 October. The US follows on 1 November. The next set of minutes, from the October meeting, is due on 18 November at 19:00 GMT, which is the FOMC minutes UK time to note for that release.

Can You Follow the Fed Minutes Live?

The Federal Reserve minutes are a written document. The Fed posts them in HTML and PDF on its website at the release time. Many news outlets run live blogs, and our economic calendar lists the event next to other US data.

The minutes are the one Fed event that can never go off-script. They are the script, just three weeks late.

What Happened at the September 2026 Meeting

The Fed September meeting minutes cover a two-day debate that ended with a rate hike. On 16 September 2026, the FOMC raised the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The official FOMC statement said inflation "remains elevated". It added that the move would "support a timelier return" to the 2% goal.

This Fed rate hike September 2026 was the first increase since July 2023. Fed Chair Warsh, who took over in May 2026, told reporters that "inflation is too high and has been for too long". You can read his full remarks in the press conference transcript.

The Fed Rate Path Over the Past Year

Meeting Decision Target range Notes
17 Sep 2025 Cut 25 bp 4.00%-4.25% Stephen Miran preferred a 50 bp cut.
29 Oct 2025 Cut 25 bp 3.75%-4.00% Two dissents in opposite directions.
10 Dec 2025 Cut 25 bp 3.50%-3.75% The Fed began buying Treasury bills.
28 Jan 2026 Hold 3.50%-3.75% Vote of 10-2.
18 Mar 2026 Hold 3.50%-3.75% Vote of 11-1.
29 Apr 2026 Hold 3.50%-3.75% Vote of 8-4 at Jerome Powell's last meeting as chair.
17 Jun 2026 Hold 3.50%-3.75% Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair.
29 Jul 2026 Hold 3.50%-3.75% Three officials preferred a 25 bp hike.
16 Sep 2026 Hike 25 bp 3.75%-4.00% Unanimous 12-0 vote.

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements, 2025-2026.

The shift in outlook has been sharp. In March, the median official saw rates at 3.4% by the end of 2026. By September, that median had risen to 4.1%.

The Fed Dot Plot September 2026

The Fed Summary of Economic Projections shows where each official expects rates and the economy to head. The September medians are below, with June figures in brackets for the rate path.

Median projection 2026 2027 2028 Longer run
Federal funds rate 4.1% (3.8%) 4.1% (3.6%) 3.9% (3.4%) 3.2% (3.1%)
PCE inflation 3.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%
Core PCE inflation 3.4% 2.5% 2.2% n/a
Real GDP growth 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.0%
Unemployment rate 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2%

Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026.

Eighteen officials submitted a dot for 2026. Warsh said the projections reflect the forecasts of his "18 colleagues", which suggests he left his own dot out.

Further hikes pencilled in for 2026 Officials Implied year-end range
Zero 2 3.75%-4.00%
One 12 4.00%-4.25%
Two 4 4.25%-4.50%

Projections are the officials' own estimates at one point in time. They can change at every meeting and are not a reliable indicator of future interest rates.

Fed Hawks vs Doves: Who Said What After the Meeting

Fed officials have spoken often since 16 September. Their comments help decode the debate the minutes may describe.

Official Leaning Recent message
Lorie Logan (Dallas) Hawkish On 1 October she said the target range may need to rise "an additional 50 basis points or more".
Alberto Musalem (St Louis) Hawkish He argued that inflation is a present problem.
Beth Hammack (Cleveland) Hawkish She warned about an inflation mindset taking hold.
Anna Paulson and Michael Barr Leaning hawkish Both said modest further tightening could be justified.
Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) Leaning hawkish He pencilled in one more hike in 2026 and one in 2027.
John Williams (New York) Centrist He called one more hike by year-end "a reasonable way of thinking about it".
Philip Jefferson and Austan Goolsbee Centrist Both stressed a data-led approach.
Lisa Cook Centrist She focused on keeping the labour market strong.
Michelle Bowman Dovish She sees little need for further moves in 2026.

Leaning labels are an editorial summary of public remarks. They may not reflect how each official votes. Sources: Dallas Fed and our coverage of the Williams speech.

The remarks show Fed officials divided on the pace of further hikes. The core of the committee appears to favour a patient pace. Futures pricing implies a low chance of an October move and a higher chance of a December move. For background on the decision itself, see our report on the September rate hike.

What Markets Price: Fed Rate Hike Odds

Rate futures show how traders price each meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool is the most widely cited gauge, and you can check it on the CME Group website.

Meeting or horizon Futures pricing on 5 October 2026
28 October 2026 Hold about 80%, hike about 20%
9 December 2026 At least one hike about 81%
Mid-2027 Implied Fed peak rate near 4.50%-4.75%

About a week earlier, the Fed October rate hike odds stood near 70%. Softer inflation and a weak jobs report pulled them down. These probabilities change daily with new data.

Will the Fed Raise Rates in October?

Futures imply roughly a one-in-five chance of an October hike. Officials have not committed to a path. Warsh said in September, "I'm not in the forward guidance business."

Will the Fed Raise Rates in December?

Pricing leans towards a December move. The Fed December rate hike odds stood at about 81% on 5 October. The 8-9 December meeting also brings a new dot plot. Key data before then includes September CPI on 14 October.

Why the Minutes May Already Look Dated

The minutes describe a debate held before the latest data. Since then, several reports have come in softer than forecast.

Data Result Consensus Released
Core PCE inflation, August (y/y) 3.0% About 3.3% 30 September
Headline PCE inflation, August (y/y) 3.4% About 3.7% 30 September
Nonfarm payrolls, September +29,000 About +90,000 2 October
Unemployment rate, September 4.2% Little changed 2 October
Payroll revisions, July and August -60,000 combined n/a 2 October
Average hourly earnings (y/y) +3.0% n/a 2 October

Sources: BEA core PCE data and BLS Employment Situation, September 2026.

In the Fed minutes vs expectations debate, the focus is on how strongly officials leaned towards more hikes before the soft data arrived.

Reading three-week-old minutes after a 29,000 jobs print feels a bit like checking yesterday's weather during today's storm. It still tells you how the clouds formed.

Fed Minutes Hawkish or Dovish? Words to Watch

The minutes use a fixed set of words to describe how many officials hold a view. Knowing how to read FOMC minutes starts with these quantifiers.

Word in the minutes How analysts often read it
"Most" or "a majority" More than half of the participants.
"Many" A large group, usually under half.
"Several" A smaller group.
"Some" A handful of participants.
"A few" or "a couple" Two or three participants.

In the July FOMC minutes, "many participants" said tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. You can read that wording in the July 2026 minutes.

A shift from "many" to "most" would likely be read as a more hawkish signal. A shift to "several" would likely be read as softer.

Themes to Look For in the Text

  • The number of officials who backed further tightening.
  • Whether anyone argued for a 50 bp move in September.
  • How officials judge the neutral rate, also known as r-star.
  • Whether officials plan to look through the energy shock.
  • How worried officials are about inflation expectations drifting higher.
  • What officials said about AI and asset valuations.
  • How officials view Treasury yields above 5%.
  • Any detail on Warsh's plans for meetings and the dot plot.

Energy Prices and the Inflation Debate

The US-Iran conflict has kept energy prices high. Brent traded near $101 a barrel on 2 October, according to Kitco.

Officials disagree on how to treat a supply shock. Some prefer to look through it. Others worry about second-round effects on wages and prices.

One-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey rose to 4.6% from 4.0%. Hawkish officials watch this kind of signal closely.

AI and Asset Valuations

The July minutes flagged a risk of "a broad-based repricing of assets" if expectations around AI were revised down sharply. Any repeat of that language may draw attention from equity markets.

Warsh's Reform Agenda

Kevin Warsh has shortened the policy statement and dropped forward guidance. He has also set up five working groups, including one on communication and the dot plot.

He has floated a plan to cut the number of meetings from eight to six a year. Any detail on this in the minutes may interest rate markets.

Market Snapshot Before the Minutes

The table shows approximate levels between 1 and 5 October 2026. Figures are a point-in-time snapshot and will change.

Asset Approximate level Context
US Dollar Index (DXY) 102.35 Highest level in around 18 months.
EUR/USD 1.117-1.119 Near a 17-month low.
USD/JPY 157.7 The 160 area is watched for USD/JPY intervention risk.
GBP/USD 1.3215 The Bank of England decides on 5 November.
Gold (XAU/USD) $4,142 Spot price on 2 October.
Silver $60.23 Spot price on 2 October.
Brent / WTI $101 / $91 Supported by the conflict with Iran.
US 2-year yield 4.78% Fed H.15 data for 1 October.
US 10-year yield 5.24% An intraday high near 5.34% was the highest since 2002.
US 30-year yield 5.61% Fed H.15 data for 1 October.
S&P 500 7,720-7,740 The S&P 500 record of 7,816.7 was set in August.
Nasdaq 100 30,808 A Nasdaq 100 record close on 2 October.
VIX 15-16 A moderate reading for implied volatility.

Sources: Federal Reserve H.15 and Kitco. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

FOMC Minutes Market Reaction: What History Shows

Minutes usually move markets less than a rate decision. Their impact tends to come from surprises in tone.

The July release is a good example. Much of the move that day came from a Treasury buyback announcement.

Three Possible Readings of the Text

Scenario What the text might show How markets have often read a similar tone
Hawkish Most officials see more hikes, and some discussed a 50 bp move. Yields and the dollar have often firmed in similar cases. Gold and equities have tended to come under pressure.
In line A majority sees more tightening at a measured pace. Initial moves have often faded within the session.
Dovish Several officials see the September hike as possibly sufficient. Yields and the dollar have often eased in similar cases. Gold and equities have tended to find support.

These scenarios are illustrative. They do not predict the outcome, and markets can react in unexpected ways.

One more catch is the clock. The 10-year Treasury auction of $39 billion closes at 13:00 ET, an hour before the minutes. Weak demand at that auction could move bonds more than the minutes themselves.

Currencies Ahead of the Minutes: EUR/USD and USD/JPY

EUR/USD

EUR/USD trades near 1.117, close to a 17-month low. French fiscal worries have weighed on the euro, with the French-German bond spread around 140 bp.

The ECB deposit rate stands at 2.50%. Our ECB meeting October 2026 preview looks at the odds of another move on 29 October.

Source: TradingView - Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Interactive chart for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

USD/JPY

USD/JPY trades in a 155-160 range. The Bank of Japan holds its rate at 1.25%, and the 160 level is watched as a possible intervention zone.

Source: TradingView - Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Interactive chart for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Currency pairs are available to trade as CFDs through our Forex CFD offering. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.

Gold Ahead of the FOMC Minutes

Gold traded near $4,142 on 2 October. Higher real yields and a firm dollar have weighed on the metal in recent weeks.

Speculative positioning in gold futures sits near the 91st percentile of its range, based on CFTC data for 29 September. Some analysts note that one-sided positioning can amplify price moves in either direction.

Source: TradingView - Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Interactive chart for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Gold and silver are part of our commodity CFD range. Product availability depends on your country of residence.

Treasury Yields and the Bond Selloff

Treasury yields have just posted their biggest quarterly rise since 1994. The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.34% intraday, and the 30-year yield is near a 24-year high.

Several factors sit behind the move. The budget deficit reached about $2.0 trillion over the first 11 months of the fiscal year. Oil-driven inflation has added pressure. Heavy AI investment is also competing for capital.

Long-dated yields have risen faster than short-dated ones. This yield curve steepening has pushed the 2s10s spread to about +45 bp.

Logan said recent moves reflect both higher risk-free rates and a higher term premium. She also noted that "these decompositions depend on models and subjective judgments".

Stocks Ahead of the Minutes

The Nasdaq 100 closed at a record on 2 October. Gains have been narrow, with only about 25% of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average.

Analysts expect Q3 earnings per share growth of about 29.5%, according to FactSet. US bank results start on 13 October.

Source: TradingView - Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Interactive chart for illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future returns.

Key Technical Levels Analysts Watch

The table summarises widely followed chart levels as at 5 October 2026.

Asset Technical picture Resistance Support
DXY Above all its main moving averages. RSI near 76. 102.60, then 103.50 101.70, then 100.50
EUR/USD Below its main moving averages. RSI between 20 and 26. 1.1250, then 1.1325 1.1106-1.1123, then 1.1000
USD/JPY Range of 155-160. RSI near 50. 158.30-158.50, then 160.00 157.26, then 155.00
XAU/USD Below all its main moving averages. RSI near 38. $4,203-4,223, then $4,325 $4,101-4,110, then $4,000
US 10-year yield Rising yields with a steeper curve. 5.34%, then 5.50% 5.17%, then 5.00%
S&P 500 Range-bound since August with weak breadth. 7,815, then 7,920-8,010 7,610-7,635, then 7,507

These levels come from technical analysis and are for illustration only. They can break at any time, and indicators such as RSI can stay at extreme readings for long periods.

Positioning Data from the CFTC

  • Speculators held a net short of about 63,000 euro futures contracts.
  • Net long gold positions stood near 219,000 contracts.
  • Net long yen positions were about 55,000 contracts.
  • Short positions in 10-year Treasury futures had grown.

Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders report, data as of 29 September 2026.

FOMC Minutes Trading: Risks and Practical Points

Event-driven trading carries specific risks. The table sets out both sides.

Possible advantages Possible disadvantages
The release time is known well in advance. Spreads can widen and slippage can occur.
Price moves can be larger than usual. Prices can gap or reverse within minutes.
Clear themes help structure analysis. Other news, such as oil or auctions, can drown out the minutes.

The first minutes after a release can be volatile, and early moves sometimes reverse. Many traders also keep an eye on the economic calendar this week for clashing events.

Common risk-management practices include the points below.

  • Some traders adjust position size around high-impact releases to manage their exposure.
  • Stop-loss orders can help manage risk, although they may not protect against price gaps.
  • Leverage magnifies both gains and losses.
  • Practising on a demo account with virtual funds lets traders test an approach before using real money.

For a step-by-step look at event trading, read our guide on how to trade the Fed rate decision. Platforms such as MetaTrader 5 include price alerts and an economic calendar.

Our range includes CFDs on stocks, Forex, indices and commodities. It also includes ETFs and stocks. Product availability depends on your country of residence.

FOMC Calendar 2026 and Key Dates Ahead

Times below are in UK time. UK clocks move to GMT on 25 October.

Date UK time Event
6 October Various US trade balance and 3-year Treasury auction.
6 October Various Speeches by Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook.
7 October 18:00 $39 billion 10-year Treasury auction.
7 October 19:00 FOMC minutes from the September meeting.
8 October Various US jobless claims and the ECB minutes (account).
8 October Various Christopher Waller speech and 30-year Treasury auction.
9 October 15:00 University of Michigan sentiment, preliminary.
13-14 October Various Quarterly results from major US banks.
14 October 13:30 US CPI for September.
15 October 13:30 US retail sales and PPI.
28 October 18:00 FOMC rate decision.
29 October Various US Q3 GDP and September PCE.
29 October Various ECB rate decision.
3 November All day US midterm elections 2026.
5 November 12:00 Bank of England rate decision.
9 December 19:00 FOMC decision with new projections.

Source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar and our economic calendar.

What Banks Expect

Major banks have updated their Fed calls after the soft data. Goldman Sachs moved its next hike forecast to December, as reported by Reuters via Kitco.

Institution Fed view Other published forecasts
Goldman Sachs Next hike in December, with a strong chance further hikes prove unnecessary. Gold at $4,650 by end-2026.
JPMorgan One hike in December, then a pause. n/a
Morgan Stanley Hikes in December and March 2027, to 4.25%-4.50%. 10-year yield at 5.0% by end-2026.
TD Securities Sees the minutes as largely stale and cuts as possible in 2027. n/a
BofA n/a S&P 500 at 7,400 and 10-year yield at 5.0% by end-2026.
Citi n/a Gold at $4,800 by end-2026.

These are third-party views published in late September and early October 2026. They can change quickly and are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Risks to the Outlook

Factors that could lift yields and the dollar Factors that could weigh on them
A hot CPI print on 14 October. Further weak labour market data.
Higher oil prices. A ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Weak demand at Treasury auctions. Political pressure on Fed independence.
Stronger growth data, with GDPNow near 3.7%. Japanese intervention near 160.

FAQ

What are FOMC meeting minutes?

They are the Fed's detailed written record of a policy meeting, published three weeks after each rate decision.

When are the Fed minutes today released?

The September meeting minutes are released on 7 October 2026 at 2:00 pm ET, or 19:00 BST.

What did the Fed decide in September 2026?

It raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote.

Will the Fed raise rates in October 2026?

Futures priced about a 20% chance on 5 October. Officials say each decision depends on incoming data.

Why do three-week-old minutes still matter?

They show how widely officials backed further hikes, which can shape expectations for December and for 2027.

How can the minutes affect the dollar and gold?

A hawkish tone has often supported the dollar and yields, while gold has tended to weaken in those cases.

Where can I read the official FOMC minutes?

The Fed publishes them on federalreserve.gov in HTML and PDF formats at 2:00 pm Eastern Time.

Who is the current Fed chair?

Kevin Warsh has chaired the Federal Reserve since May 2026, and Jerome Powell remains a Board governor.

Sources

All sources were accessed on 5 October 2026.

Some of the content on this page was created using automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

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