Fed Rate Decision October 2026: Will the Fed Hike Again on 28 October?
The Federal Reserve will announce its next decision on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:00 ET, which is 18:00 UK time and 19:00 CET (Federal Reserve). On 9 October, markets priced only about a 16%-18% chance of a second straight hike. Most traders expect the Fed to hold the federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00% (DeFi Rate, Trading Economics).
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September, its first hike since July 2023 (FOMC statement). The minutes released on 7 October said "most participants" saw another increase as likely appropriate "by year end" (FOMC minutes). Weak September payrolls have since shifted that expected hike from October towards the 9 December meeting (BabyPips).
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Fed Rate Decision: The Short Answer
- When Is the Fed Meeting in October 2026?
- Why Did the Fed Raise Rates in September 2026?
- The FOMC Dot Plot September 2026
- What the FOMC Minutes Said on 7 October
- Will the Fed Hike in October? What Markets Price
- What Economists Expect
- Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Decision
- Jobs: Why Is the Fed Raising Rates When Jobs Are Weak?
- Treasury Yields: Is the Bond Market Tightening for the Fed?
- Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
- Fed Hawks vs Doves 2026
- The Case for a Hike and the Case for a Hold
- Fed Decision Scenarios for 28 October
- Fed Statement October vs September: Words to Watch
- Fed Rate Hike Impact on Markets
- Five-Year History of Rates and the Dollar
- Key Dates Before and After the Meeting
- FOMC Trading Strategy: What Traders Often Watch
- Key Risks to the Outlook
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Conclusion
Fed Rate Decision: The Short Answer
The base case among economists and in market pricing is a hawkish hold. That means the Fed keeps rates where they are and leaves the door open for a hike in December. The table below sums up the key facts as of 9 October 2026.
^ Sources: Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve calendar, DeFi Rate, Governor Waller speech, Capital.com. Market odds change quickly and are not a reliable indicator of future decisions.
Currency markets often react quickly to a Fed surprise. EUR/USD is shown below as a dollar proxy.
When Is the Fed Meeting in October 2026?
The FOMC meeting takes place on Tuesday 27 October and Wednesday 28 October 2026. The statement comes at the end of the second day. Chair Kevin Warsh then holds a press conference 30 minutes later (Federal Reserve October calendar).
What Time Is the Fed Announcement?
Europe and the UK move their clocks back on Sunday 25 October. The US only does so on Sunday 1 November. For that one week, the gap between New York and Europe is one hour shorter than usual.
^ Source: Federal Reserve FOMC calendar. Times converted with the IANA time zone database.
Traders who rely on a fixed mental conversion may wish to check the clock twice that week. It is one of the rare weeks when 14:00 in New York is 19:00 in Paris.
FOMC Blackout Period
Fed officials stop speaking about policy from Saturday 17 October until Thursday 29 October (Atlanta Fed). Any last signals from the Fed must therefore come before 17 October.
Why Did the Fed Raise Rates in September 2026?
The September hike ended nine months on hold. It followed a 25 basis point cut in December 2025. The vote was 12-0 (FOMC statement, 16 September 2026).
The statement said that "Inflation remains elevated". It also said the move supports "a timelier return" to the 2% goal. At his press conference, Warsh said that "The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long" (press conference transcript).
Fed Decisions in 2026 So Far
^ Sources: Federal Reserve target range history, FOMC statement, 29 July 2026, FOMC statement, 16 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Beth Hammack and Neel Kashkari dissented in favour of a hike in July. Lorie Logan joined them (FOMC statement, 29 July 2026). All three vote again in October.
Who Votes on the FOMC in 2026?
The 12 voters in 2026 are listed in the September minutes (FOMC minutes). Kevin Warsh is Chair and John Williams is Vice Chair of the FOMC. Jerome Powell remains a voting member of the Board of Governors.
- Kevin Warsh, Chair.
- John Williams, Vice Chair, who also heads the New York Fed.
- Governors Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman.
- Governor Lisa Cook and Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
- Governors Jerome Powell and Christopher Waller.
- Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed.
- Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed.
- Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed.
- Anna Paulson of the Philadelphia Fed.
The FOMC Dot Plot September 2026
The September projections lifted the median rate for end-2026 to 4.1% (Federal Reserve projections). That implies one more 25 basis point hike this year. In June, the median for end-2026 was 3.8%.
^ Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. The 2026 and 2027 rate medians are both 4.1% in the source. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
How Many Rate Hikes in 2026?
The dots show where each official sees the rate at the end of 2026. Sixteen of the 18 participants expect at least one more hike this year.
^ Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What the FOMC Minutes Said on 7 October
The minutes of the September meeting were released on 7 October at 14:00 ET, which was 19:00 UK time and 20:00 CEST (FOMC minutes). They confirmed a hawkish tilt. They also left the timing open.
- Most participants judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end.
- Many saw a higher path as prudent on risk management grounds.
- Several judged policy as only mildly restrictive or as neutral.
- Participants saw inflation risks as skewed to the upside.
- They described the labour market as close to maximum employment.
- Participants said they approach each meeting with an open mind.
The words "by year end" cover both October and December. Markets have read them as a December signal. For more detail, see the Admirals FOMC minutes preview.
Will the Fed Hike in October? What Markets Price
Market pricing for October has fallen sharply in less than two weeks. An October hike was the favourite at the end of September. Soft inflation data and cautious comments from John Williams cut those odds. A weak jobs report then made October the outside bet.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Timeline
^ Sources: Hellenic Shipping News (Reuters), BabyPips, Federal Reserve, DeFi Rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Penn Mutual Asset Management put October odds even lower after payrolls, at about 14% (Penn Mutual Asset Management). Readings differ between sources and change during the day. The direction is the same in all of them.
Is a December Hike Priced In?
A December move is likely in market pricing, yet it is short of fully priced. Estimates on 9 October ranged from about 75% to 85% (DeFi Rate, Federal Reserve). That leaves room for repricing either way after the October statement.
What Economists Expect
A survey of 14 major brokerages on 1 October found that 13 expect the Fed to hold in October (Capital.com). Only BofA expects a hike this month. Goldman Sachs moved its call from October to December on 30 September (InvestingLive).
^ Sources: Capital.com, 1 October 2026, Federal Reserve. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Inflation and the Fed Interest Rate Decision
Inflation is the main reason the Fed hiked. Energy prices have pushed the headline rate up. Core inflation has been steadier.
^ Sources: BLS Consumer Price Index, BEA PCE price index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
August PCE came in softer than expected (Trading Economics). Board Vice Chair Jefferson said that "The predominant factor driving the recent pickup in headline inflation is energy prices" (Federal Reserve).
US CPI 14 October: The Swing Data
The September CPI report is due on Wednesday 14 October at 08:30 ET (BLS release schedule). That is 13:30 UK time and 14:30 CEST. It is the last major inflation print before the meeting.
^ Sources: Continuum Economics, BLS. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
A hot headline driven by energy may matter less to the Fed than core inflation. A core reading of 0.3% or more could revive October bets. A core reading near 0.2% could fit the hold scenario.
PCE and GDP Come After the Decision
September PCE and the first estimate of third-quarter GDP are both due on 29 October at 08:30 ET (BEA release schedule). That is 12:30 UK time and 13:30 CET. It comes the day after the decision. The Fed will vote without them.
Jobs: Why Is the Fed Raising Rates When Jobs Are Weak?
The September jobs report was the main reason October odds fell. Payrolls rose by just 29,000 against forecasts of 90,000 (BLS Employment Situation, BabyPips). Revisions cut a further 60,000 jobs from July and August.
^ Sources: BLS, weekly claims report. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Weekly claims remain very low. Layoffs are rare, even as hiring slows. Governor Waller said on 8 October that the labour market "continued to be solid and stable in September" (Federal Reserve). Hawks can point to this when they argue that the payrolls miss does not signal a downturn.
The October jobs report is due on 6 November, after the meeting (BLS release schedule). The Committee will decide with the weak September print and the weekly claims data in hand.
Treasury Yields: Is the Bond Market Tightening for the Fed?
Long-term yields have climbed fast since the September hike. The 10-year Treasury yield touched about 5.35% intraday in early October, its highest level since 2002 (Trading Economics). The 30-year yield closed at 5.67% on 7 October.
^ Sources: US Treasury, September 2026, US Treasury, October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The minutes noted that yields rose on geopolitics and heavy corporate debt issuance linked to AI (FOMC minutes). Higher borrowing costs can do part of the Fed's work. An InvestingLive analysis of Goldman Sachs' change of call argued that higher yields tighten financial conditions (InvestingLive). The Admirals weekly digest on Treasury yields covers the bond move in more depth.
In that analysis, the tightening delivered by the bond market could give the Fed an argument for pausing in October. The Committee may weigh the data differently.
The chart above shows a US 10-year T-Note CFD. Its price moves in the opposite direction to the yield.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz
Energy is the main driver of headline inflation. Brent traded above $100 on 10 September, after Iran attacked ships near the Strait of Hormuz (Free Press Journal). The current oil risk stems from the US-Iran conflict around that strait.
On the morning of 9 October (European time), Brent traded near $103.4 and WTI near $91.0 (Trading Economics). Prices eased after President Trump spoke of "productive discussions" with Iran. A hurricane also shut in part of the Gulf of Mexico output.
Warsh said in September that the Fed "cannot affect any individual price" such as oil (press conference transcript). The concern is second-round effects. One-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey rose to 4.6% in September from 4.0% (Trading Economics). The FOMC minutes flagged the risk that high inflation could affect expectations.
Fed Hawks vs Doves 2026
Most Fed speakers since the hike have backed more tightening this year. Few have pressed for October. The table sums up the latest comments before the blackout.
^ Sources: Federal Reserve transcript, Hellenic Shipping News (Reuters), Jefferson speech, Waller speech, FOMC statement, 29 July 2026.
Christopher Waller Speech 8 October
Waller expects more hikes. He also said that "The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings" (Federal Reserve). Markets read this as room for a pause in October. He added that inflation has been above target for "nearly five and a half years".
Kevin Warsh Is Due to Meet Georgieva in Bangkok
Warsh is due to hold a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok on 15 October (Federal Reserve October calendar). It is the Chair's last scheduled appearance before the blackout. Any hint on timing there could move October pricing.
The Case for a Hike and the Case for a Hold
^ Sources: FOMC minutes, BLS, Continuum Economics, InvestingLive, Trading Economics, FOMC statement, 29 July 2026, weekly claims report. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Fed Decision Scenarios for 28 October
The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe possible outcomes based on current pricing and the FOMC minutes. Actual reactions may differ.
^ Sources: DeFi Rate, FOMC minutes. Scenarios are illustrative only. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What Is a Hawkish Hold?
A hawkish hold means the Fed keeps rates unchanged. At the same time it signals that further hikes remain likely. Markets watch the statement wording and the press conference tone for that signal.
What Happens if the Fed Raises Rates Again?
A hike on 28 October would surprise most of the market. Short-dated yields have often jumped after such surprises. The dollar has often firmed. Equities and gold have tended to come under pressure. Past reactions have varied and are not a reliable indicator of future moves. Much would then depend on whether Warsh frames the move as the end of the cycle or as one step of several.
Fed Statement October vs September: Words to Watch
Small changes in the statement can move markets. The table lists September phrases that analysts will compare with the new text.
^ Source: FOMC statement, 16 September 2026.
Warsh has said he does not offer forward guidance (press conference transcript). The press conference may give fewer signals than markets are used to. That could raise volatility once the press conference starts at 14:30 ET, 18:30 UK time and 19:30 CET.
Fed Rate Hike Impact on Markets
The table shows levels before the meeting. Market data change during the day and should be rechecked at the time of reading.
^ Sources: US Treasury, Trading Economics DXY, Trading Economics EUR/USD, Trading Economics Brent, Trading Economics gold, CoinMarketCap. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
How the Dollar Reacted to Weak Payrolls
The payrolls day on 2 October gave a recent test of how markets respond to softer Fed pricing (BabyPips).
^ Source: BabyPips, 2 October 2026. These were intraday moves, and the 10-year yield later closed at 5.28%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
EUR/USD and the ECB
EUR/USD traded near 1.12 on 8 October, close to a 17-month low of 1.116 earlier that week (Trading Economics). The European Central Bank decides on 29 October at 14:15 CET, which is 09:15 ET and 13:15 UK time, the day after the Fed. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% in September. The Admirals ECB meeting preview covers that decision.
The guide to trading the US Dollar Index explains how the dollar index is built.
How Will the Fed Decision Affect Gold?
Gold traded near $4,195 on the morning of 9 October (Trading Economics). Higher real yields have often weighed on gold, since gold does not pay interest. A hawkish surprise could add pressure. A dovish hold could offer support.
Bitcoin and Interest Rates
Bitcoin traded near $82,000 on 9 October (CoinMarketCap). Crypto assets have often moved with risk sentiment around Fed meetings. They are highly volatile, and moves of several per cent in a day are common.
How Stocks May React to a Fed Rate Hike
Equity indices are sensitive to the 2-year yield and to long-term rates. Technology-heavy indices have often reacted most to rate surprises. A hold with a dovish tone has tended to support stocks, while a surprise hike has tended to weigh on them.
Five-Year History of Rates and the Dollar
Rates and the dollar have swung widely over the past five years. The table gives the full calendar years 2021 to 2025, plus 2026 to date. EUR/USD is shown as an annual average rate.
^ Sources: Federal Reserve target range history, US Treasury par yields for 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, DXY from Traders Union, measured from the first to the last price of each year, and EUR/USD from Traders Union. Period: calendar years 2021-2025 and 1 January to 9 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Key Dates Before and After the Meeting
^ Sources: BLS CPI schedule, Federal Reserve October calendar, BEA schedule, BLS jobs schedule, FOMC calendar. All times converted with the IANA time zone database.
The Admirals economic calendar lists these releases with live results.
FOMC Trading Strategy: What Traders Often Watch
Fed decision days have often brought sharp moves in currencies and bonds. Many traders prepare a plan before the release. The points below describe common practice. They are shared as general information only.
- Traders often compare the new statement with the September text line by line.
- Many watch the 2-year Treasury yield as the fastest gauge of rate expectations.
- Spreads can widen sharply around 14:00 ET, 18:00 UK time and 19:00 CET on 28 October.
- The first move after the statement has sometimes reversed during the press conference.
- Some traders reduce position size or use stop-loss orders to manage risk around the release.
- A stop-loss order may be filled at a worse price in fast markets.
The Admirals guide on how to trade a Fed rate decision explains these ideas in more detail.
Trading the Fed With CFDs
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex pairs such as EUR/USD through its Forex CFD page. It also offers CFDs on indices and CFDs on commodities such as gold and oil. Trades can be placed on MetaTrader 5.
^ Source: Admirals product information.
A demo account uses virtual funds. Results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Key Risks to the Outlook
- A hot September CPI could revive October hike pricing within hours.
- An escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent sharply higher.
- A de-escalation before the midterms could pull oil and inflation expectations lower.
- A disorderly move in Treasury yields above 5.35% could tighten conditions further.
- A weak October jobs report on 6 November could reduce December hike odds.
- The ECB decision on 29 October may add to currency volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
When Is the Next Fed Rate Decision?
The next Fed decision is due on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:00 ET, 18:00 UK and 19:00 CET.
What Time Is the Fed Decision in CET?
The statement is due at 19:00 CET, which is 14:00 ET and 18:00 UK time, on 28 October.
Will the Fed Hike in October 2026?
Markets saw a hike as unlikely on 9 October, with odds near 16%-18%, though CPI could shift them.
Will the Fed Hike in December?
Markets priced a December hike at roughly 75%-85% on 9 October, a high probability short of certainty.
What Is the Current Fed Rate?
The federal funds target range is 3.75%-4.00% after the Fed raised it by 25 basis points in September.
Who Is the Fed Chair in 2026?
Kevin Warsh is Chair of the Federal Reserve in 2026, and Jerome Powell remains a voting Board governor.
What Is a Dot Plot?
A dot plot shows where each Fed official expects the policy rate at the end of each year.
When Are FOMC Minutes Released?
Minutes usually come out three weeks after a meeting, so October minutes are expected around 18 November 2026.
Conclusion
Current market pricing points to a hold at 3.75%-4.00% at the October meeting. The tone may matter as much as the decision itself. A firm statement would keep December in play. A softer one could pull December odds lower.
The September CPI report on 14 October and Warsh's appearance on 15 October are the last big tests before the blackout. The decision arrives at 14:00 ET, 18:00 UK time and 19:00 CET on 28 October, one hour earlier than usual for European traders.
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