Central Banks Week: The Fed Decides Today Ahead of the ECB and BoJ

The Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision today, Wednesday 28 October, at 14:00 ET (18:00 UK time). Markets expect the Fed to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.75%-4.00%. CME FedWatch put the chance of a hold at about 93% at the 27 October close. A December hike was priced at roughly 80% (Daily Wrap, 27 October 2026).

This is one of the busiest weeks of the year for monetary policy. The ECB decides on Thursday and is expected to keep its deposit rate at 2.50%. The Bank of Japan follows on Friday, with a hold at 1.25% expected. The Bank of Canada also decides today, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already surprised markets with a hold.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

The backdrop is unusual. In Asian trade on 28 October, Brent crude traded above $110 a barrel, and the US 10-year Treasury yield stood near 5%. This guide sets out the times and the numbers for each decision. It also lays out possible scenarios and shows how markets have often reacted to similar events in the past.

Central bank week at a glance: the short answers

Here are the main facts for the central bank meetings this week. All UK times are GMT, since the UK clocks changed on 25 October. The US stays on daylight time until 1 November, so ET is UK time minus four hours this week.

Sources: Daily Wrap, Kitco/Reuters, investingLive, ABC News, Bank of England. Market pricing as of 27-28 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

For a longer preview written before this week began, see the Admirals guide to the central bank super week. EUR/USD is a common focus this week, since it can react to the Fed on Wednesday and to the ECB on Thursday.

Fed decision October 2026: what to expect today

This meeting is the first since the hot September inflation report. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September, the first hike since 2023. The vote was 12-0, and the statement said that "inflation remains elevated" (Federal Reserve, 16 September 2026).

Admirals covered the build-up in its earlier Fed rate decision October 2026 preview. The picture has moved since then. Hike odds for today have faded, while a December hike remains largely priced.

What time is the Fed decision today?

The statement comes at 14:00 ET. Chair Kevin Warsh holds his press conference at 14:30 ET (Investopedia via Yahoo Finance). The table converts these times for readers in Europe.

Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar. The US moves to standard time on 1 November, so the gap with the UK is five hours in December.

This meeting has a statement and a press conference only. The next set of projections arrives with the December meeting on 8-9 December.

Will the Fed hold rates?

Market pricing points to a hold. FedWatch showed the chance of a hike today near 7% at the 27 October close. That was down from 12.7% a day earlier (Daily Wrap).

Most economists share that view. In a Reuters poll taken on 16-20 October, 94 of 100 economists expected a hold this week. All 100 expected a quarter-point hike in December. About 60% saw the peak between 4.00% and 4.25% (Jolt Journal, citing Reuters).

Sources: Daily Wrap, Jolt Journal. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Why many analysts expect a hawkish hold

Most analysts expect what is often called a hawkish hold. In plain terms, the Fed keeps rates where they are and signals that more tightening is possible. KPMG expects a hold with a clear tightening bias and sees the next hike in December (KPMG, 22 October 2026).

KPMG also notes that elevated long-term yields already tighten financial conditions. Quarter-point hikes with pauses in between let officials test for hidden strains. Natixis expects a hold at an upper bound of 4.0%, with one more hike in December. It adds that the December call depends on the inflation data (Kitco, 27 October 2026).

Fed dissenters to watch

Three officials dissented in July in favour of a hike. They were Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed and Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed, along with Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed (Investopedia via Yahoo Finance). Natixis expects these three to dissent again today (Kitco, 27 October 2026).

KPMG has a different base case. It sees a unanimous hold, with Logan the main risk of a single hawkish dissent (KPMG). The vote count matters. More dissents could suggest stronger support for a December move.

Sources: KPMG, Kitco, Investopedia via Yahoo Finance.

What Warsh may say at the press conference

Warsh set a firm tone in September. According to investingLive, he said that the summer's inflation readings did not show a meaningful improvement in underlying trends (investingLive, 16 September 2026). On the day of that decision, the 10-year yield pushed back above 5%.

Today, traders often listen for how Warsh describes the September CPI report and whether he links December to the coming data. His view of higher long-term yields may also draw attention.

Views among analysts differ widely. TD Securities says a December hike is "all but locked in". Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks market pricing looks overdone (Investopedia via Yahoo Finance).

The September projections in numbers

The Fed dot plot from September pointed to one more hike this year. The median path for the funds rate midpoint was 4.1% for the end of 2026.

Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The funds rate median is the same for 2026 and 2027. That is what the Fed published. The unemployment median is also flat at 4.1% from 2026 to 2028. The median path implies one more hike this year and a plateau through 2027.

Fed funds rate over the past five years

The table puts the current cycle in context. It shows the upper bound of the target range at the end of each year.

Source: Federal Reserve, Open Market Operations. Period: end-2021 to 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The macro backdrop: inflation and oil

US inflation: CPI at 3.7%

The US CPI for September came in at 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast. The prior reading was 3.4%. Core CPI rose 2.6% year on year and 0.33% on the month (investingLive, 14 October 2026).

Energy drove much of the jump. Energy prices rose 5.2% in September alone. Petrol prices in the CPI basket rose 9.1% on the month.

Source: investingLive. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Thursday data: GDP and PCE

The Fed decides before two key releases. On Thursday at 08:30 ET (12:30 UK), the US publishes advance Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation. The consensus for the advance Q3 GDP estimate is 3.2% annualised, up from 2.2%. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.3% on the month (investingLive, week ahead).

A hot reading could lift December hike odds further. A soft one could do the opposite.

Brent above $110: why oil matters for central banks

Oil is the common thread this week. December Brent settled at $113.88 on 27 October, and December WTI settled at $99.90 (Daily Wrap). In Asian trade on 28 October, Brent stood at $115.55 at around 05:15 UK time (ABC News).

Diplomacy and supply risks pull in opposite directions. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran, and Saudi Arabia held talks with Iranian officials alongside Turkey and Pakistan. At the same time, Houthi forces said they had hit Saudi pumping stations, a claim Saudi Arabia did not immediately confirm (Business Recorder/Reuters).

Diesel is a key link between oil and central banks. KPMG expects diesel costs to pass into consumer prices, which could keep inflation readings hot into December (KPMG). Admirals explains how traders approach this market in Brent above $110: trading oil CFDs.

Treasury yields near 5%

Long-term yields are doing part of the Fed's work. The US 10-year yield stood at 5.02% in Asian trade on 28 October (ABC News). The 2-year yield closed at 4.737% on 27 October, and the 30-year traded near 5.3% (Daily Wrap).

PIMCO notes that the 5-year, 5-year forward real rate is near 3%, about 50 basis points higher than in June (Jolt Journal). Higher yields raise borrowing costs for households. They can also weigh on growth shares, which are sensitive to discount rates.

Market snapshot before the Fed

Prices move all day, so each figure carries its time.

Sources: FXEmpire, Business Recorder/Reuters, ABC News, Daily Wrap. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

ECB decision: Thursday 29 October

The ECB announces its decision at 13:15 UK time (14:15 CET). Christine Lagarde's press conference follows at 13:45 UK. A hold at 2.50% is almost fully priced (investingLive, 26 October 2026).

ECB interest rates now

The ECB has raised rates twice this year. The hikes took effect on 17 June and 16 September 2026.

Source: European Central Bank, key ECB interest rates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Euro-area inflation was 3.8% in September, and core inflation was 2.5% (investingLive). Both figures sit above the ECB's 2% target.

Will the ECB raise rates in December?

Most economists think so. In a Reuters poll of 73 economists, 70 expected a hold this week. Sixty-four expected a 25 basis point hike in December (investingLive).

Morgan Stanley sees December as the "natural moment" for the next move, since it sees little sign yet of second-round effects from the energy shock. Commerzbank expects one hike to 2.75% in December and then a plateau through 2027. ING notes that the French fiscal crisis and higher yields already tighten conditions (investingLive). The Admirals ECB meeting October 2026 guide covers the dates and the background.

EUR/USD levels traders watch

EUR/USD traded at 1.11265 at 08:30 UTC on 28 October. FXEmpire noted that the pair was hovering near oversold on the 4-hour chart (FXEmpire).

Source: FXEmpire, 28 October 2026. Third-party technical levels, for illustration only.

The pair faces two events in two days. A hawkish Fed tends to support the dollar. A hawkish ECB tends to support the euro. If both lean the same way, the effects may partly cancel out.

Bank of Japan decision: Friday 30 October

The Bank of Japan meets on 29-30 October and publishes an Outlook Report on Friday (Bank of Japan, meeting schedule). The BoJ does not publish a fixed time. The decision usually lands around midday in Tokyo, which is about 03:00 UK time.

Why the BoJ is expected to hold

The BoJ policy rate stands at 1.25% after its last 25 basis point hike. Markets expect it to hold this week while signalling readiness to keep hiking. Reuters reported slightly better-than-even odds of a December hike (Business Recorder/Reuters).

Bank forecasts differ on the timing. Wells Fargo sees the next hike in December. ING sees moves in January and April. Both expect the rate at 1.75% next year (investingLive).

Sources: investingLive, XTB, investingLive. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

USD/JPY and the 160 line

USD/JPY traded around 158 on 27 October. XTB describes 159-160 as a possible test zone, with 160 as a key reference level. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on 27 October that Tokyo is watching currency moves closely and stands ready to act if needed (XTB, 27 October 2026).

Intervention risk creates gap risk for open positions. Admirals discusses this in USD/JPY intervention and stop-loss gap risk.

Bank of Canada decision today

The Bank of Canada announces its decision at 09:45 ET (13:45 UK), with a Monetary Policy Report (Bank of Canada). The policy rate has been 2.25% since October 2025.

A Reuters poll found that 19 of 34 economists expected a hike to 2.50%. Markets priced the chance of a hike at about 75%, up from 30% earlier (Kitco/Reuters, 23 October 2026).

Sources: investingLive, Kitco/Reuters. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Headline inflation is above the 1%-3% target band largely due to energy, which rose 19.0% over the year. Core measures sit below 2%.

RBNZ surprise and RBA hike odds

RBNZ holds at 2.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its cash rate at 2.75% on 28 October. The vote was 4-3, and the three dissenters wanted a 25 basis point hike. A hike had been nearly fully priced, so the decision surprised markets. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the announcement (ActionForex/Westpac).

Westpac still expects a hike on 9 December, though it says that move is uncertain. It sees the cash rate peaking at 4% in 2027. AUD/NZD traded at 1.2602 at 04:21 UK time (ABC News).

RBA November 3 meeting

The RBA meets on 3 November. Markets priced the chance of a hike at about 90% after this week's inflation data, up from about 60% before the release (ABC News). UBS expects a 25 basis point move to 4.85%.

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said last week that "the inflation outlook looks materially worse than we expected in the August" forecasts (Investing.com, 20 October 2026). The RBA has raised rates four times this year.

Source: Savings.com.au, citing ABS data. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Banks are split on the decision. ANZ and Westpac forecast a hike in November. CBA and NAB expected a hold (Savings.com.au).

UK: Autumn Budget and the Bank of England

The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is delivered today. A surprise in borrowing plans could move gilts and sterling (FXEmpire). The Bank of England then decides on 5 November, with Bank Rate at 3.75% (Bank of England).

Source: Office for National Statistics. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The next UK CPI release is due on 18 November. That falls after the BoE decision, so the MPC will work from September data.

Policy rates at global central banks compared

The table brings the main policy rates together. Most of these banks are tightening, though at different speeds.

Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, plus the sources cited above. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The key question this week is the December signal. A hold today is almost fully priced, so markets may react more to the vote count and to Warsh's words than to the decision itself.

This dispersion is what analysts call central bank policy divergence. When one bank tightens faster than another, its currency has often found support. The RBNZ surprise shows the reverse. A hold against firm hike pricing weighed on the New Zealand dollar.

Scenarios for the Fed decision (illustrative)

The scenarios below are illustrative. They show how markets could react, based on how they have often behaved in the past. They are not predictions, and real outcomes may differ.

Scenarios based on analyst commentary from Kitco/Natixis and KPMG. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Scenario 1: hawkish hold

Here the Fed holds rates. It also keeps its tightening bias. Warsh may frame September CPI as part of a trend. December pricing could stay near 80% or move higher. The dollar could firm, which may put EUR/USD support levels in focus ahead of the ECB.

The downside of this path is pressure on rate-sensitive assets. Growth shares and gold have often struggled when real yields rise.

Scenario 2: patient hold

Here, Warsh stresses the tightening already done by long-term yields. Votes are unanimous, and he avoids any December commitment. December pricing could fall, and the dollar could soften.

This path may support equities and gold. One risk is that Thursday's PCE data comes in hot and reverses the move quickly.

Scenario 3: surprise hike

FedWatch put this at about 7% before the meeting. A surprise hike could cause a sharp move in short-term yields and the dollar. It could also test equity markets, which have been sensitive to yields this month.

How traders approach central bank week

Central bank days often bring wide spreads and fast price moves. Many traders use the economic calendar to plan around release times. The Admirals guide on how to trade the Fed rate decision explains common approaches in more detail.

Gold and the Fed

The gold price has often moved with real yields and the dollar. Spot gold traded at $4,036 an ounce at 05:15 UK time on 28 October (ABC News). Analysts at investingLive noted that gold held above $4,000 support this week (investingLive).

Pros and cons of trading around central bank decisions

General market characteristics. For illustration only.

Risk management points traders often consider

• Many traders check spreads before placing orders near a release.
• Some reduce position size on event days to limit exposure.
• Stop-loss orders can help manage risk, though they may slip in fast markets.
• Traders often wait for the press conference before judging the reaction.
• Some practise event trading on a demo account first.

Admirals offers CFDs on Forex pairs such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY. It also offers CFDs on commodities such as Brent and gold. Index CFDs are available too. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Key events calendar

Sources: Federal Reserve, investingLive, Bank of Japan, ONS, ActionForex, Daily Wrap. Times are subject to change.

For anyone tracking all of this, it is a week where the calendar deserves a second screen.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is the Fed decision today?

The FOMC statement is due at 14:00 ET, which is 18:00 UK time. Warsh speaks at 14:30 ET.

Will the Fed raise rates in October?

Markets see this as unlikely. FedWatch priced a hold at about 93% at the close on 27 October.

Will the Fed raise rates in December?

FedWatch priced a December hike at about 80% on 27 October. Data before the 9 December meeting could change that.

When is the ECB decision?

The ECB announces its decision on Thursday 29 October at 13:15 UK time. Lagarde speaks at 13:45.

Will the BoJ raise rates this week?

A hold at 1.25% is expected on Friday. Reuters reported slightly better than even odds of a December hike.

Why does oil matter for central banks?

Higher oil and diesel prices can feed into inflation. That can push central banks to keep rates higher for longer.

What is a hawkish hold?

It means rates stay unchanged, while officials signal that further hikes remain possible if inflation stays high.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

Sources

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