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Your Weekly Fundamental View (July 3–7)

July 03, 2017 10:51

Need to Know

USD, FOMC, and NFP are the focal point of this week. The Federal Reserve will present a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting with deep insights into the financial conditions. In addition to the important data on the USD, this week will also provide the RBA statement that should move the AUD. More highlights will follow below.

Coming Up

CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI out on Monday, 3 July

The data represents the level of the diffusion index based on the surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

Why should you care? It's a leading indicator of economic health. The data should move the Chinese equities and Forex Asia-Pacific crosses.

GBP Manufacturing PMI Due on Monday, 3 July

The result above 50 should indicate industry expansion, while a number below 20 indicates contraction.

Why should you care? Traders might want to trade the news based on a deviation above or below 50.

BOE Governor Carney Speaks at the Financial Stability Board in Frankfurt on Monday, 3 July

Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues and future steps in the monetary policy. In the position of Head of the BOE, Mr Carney has the most sufficient influence over the Pound Sterling's value.

Why should you care? Traders could benefit from short-term volatility in GBP crosses during Draghi's speeches.

AUD RBA Rate Statement out on Tuesday, 4 July

An important report that focuses on the conditions in the financial system and potential risks to financial stability. It contains the decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

Why should you care? Traders could benefit from short-term volatility in AUD crosses once the report has been released.

Services PMI Due on Wednesday, 5 July

The UK is mainly a services economy, and the PMI report measures the level of a diffusion index based on the surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

Why should you care? The report coming out above 50 indicates industry expansion; below 50, contraction.

FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, 5 July

The detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting can be neutral, hawkish, or dovish.

Why should you care? Traders usually decipher the statement based on the general sentiment (hawkish, neutral, dovish) as USD crosses tend to move after the statement disclosure.

USD Crude Oil Inventories Due on Thursday, 6 July

A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals a decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels, and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue.

Why should you care? This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects the CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector.

USD ADP Due on Thursday, 6 July

The data precedes the NFP as an early 'sneak peek' at the employment growth.

Why should you care? Job creation is an important gauge of consumer spending that translates to a majority of overall economic activity.

US Unemployment Claims Released on Thursday, 6 July

These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result comes weaker than the forecast, it could be deemed good for the currency.

Why should you care? The number of the unemployed is an important signal in terms of overall economic health and could hint at future monetary policy steps.

CAD Trade Balance Released on Thursday, 6 July

The trade balance represents the difference in value between the imported and exported goods during the reported month.

Why should you care? A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported.

USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Average Hourly Earnings Released on Friday, 7 July

Source: NFP Employment Change,

The NFP data represents the overall change in the number of the employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, while average hourly earnings represent the change in the price businesses pay for labour, excluding the farming industry.

Why should you care? The Federal Open Market Committee and traders usually pay more attention to the core data. If the actual report comes better than the forecast, it will be good for the currency. This is possibly the most traded news release. The key test for the Fed is to ensure that inflation is improving and full employment is maintained. However, if the NFP is bulging above 200k, it may give incentive to hike sooner rather than later.