Trading Ulta Beauty Post Q4 Earnings

March 13, 2023 15:41

American beauty retail chain Ulta Beauty recorded 2022-year end earnings that exceeded $10 billion revenue for the first time in its history. While there have been concerns about a slowing economy and a more cost-conscious consumer, analysts have taken an interest in the stock.  

Learn more about Ulta Beauty’s recent earnings report, what the analysts are forecasting for the stock and how to trade it below.

Stock: Ulta Beauty Inc
Symbol for Invest.MT5 Account: ULTA
Date of Idea: 13 Mar 2023
Time Line: 1 - 6 months
Entry Level: $539.00
Target Level: $650.00
Position Size for Invest.MT5 Account: Max 5%
Risk: High
  • The Invest.MT5 account allows you to buy real stocks and shares from 15 of the largest stock exchanges in the world.

All trading is high risk and you can lose more than you risk on a trade. Never invest more than you can afford to lose as some trades will lose and some trades will win. Start small to understand your own risk tolerance levels or practice on a demo account first to build your knowledge before investing. 

Ulta Beauty Q4 Earnings Report

Here are some of the key highlights from the latest fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report from Ulta Beauty: 

  • Earnings per share of $6.68 vs $5.68 expected 
  • Revenue of $3.23 billion vs $3.30 billion expected 
  • Net income up 17.8% year over year to $340.8 million 
  • Same store sales up 15.6% slower than the 21.4% jump last year 
  • 2023 full-year revenue forecast between $10.95 billion and $11.05 billion, higher than analyst estimates 
  • Plans to open 100 new stores over the next few years 

Ulta Beauty’s last quarterly earnings reflected the holiday season where more people buy beauty products for gifts and parties. Fears of a recession, job cuts, higher inflation and a slowing economy helped affordable luxury brands like Ulta Beauty to benefit from the season.  

CEO Dave Kimbell stated that skincare, makeup and fragrance lines saw double digit sales growth in the fourth-quarter. However, while same store sales grew 15.6% in the last quarter this was much lower than the 21.4% jump during the same quarter last year.  

The beauty chain is looking to add more stores over the next few years which could cause lower growth in the short term but potentially help growth in the long term. However, Kimbell provided a bullish 2023 forecast for revenue and earnings.  

But, most of the growth is anticipated during the first half of the year with growth levelling off in the second half. One consideration is the fallout from regulators taking control of Silicon Valley Bank last week due to mass money withdrawals. 

Banking stocks provide loans for companies to grow. If the contagion causes this to dry up and the Fed continue to increase interest rates, it could have a huge impact on corporate growth. It may be prudent to keep up to date with macroeconomic events.   

Ulta Beauty Stock Forecast - What do the Analysts Say?

According to analysts polled by TipRanks for a Ulta Beauty stock forecast in the past 3 months, there are currently 13 buy, 6 holds and 1 sell rating on the stock. The highest price level for a Ulta Beauty stock forecast is $650.00 with the lowest price target at $400.00. 

The average price target for a Ulta Beauty stock forecast is $565.65.

Source: TipRanks, 13 Mar 2023


An Example Trading Idea for the Ulta Beauty Stock Price

An example trading idea for the Ulta Beauty share price could be as follows:  

  • Buy the stock on a break above the post earnings high at $539.00. 
  • Target just below the highest analyst price target of $650.00. 
  • Keep your risk small at a maximum of 5% of your total account.   
  • Time Line = 1 – 6 months  
  • If you buy 10 Ulta Beauty shares:  
    • If target is reached = $1,110.00 potential profit ($650.00 - $539.00 *10 shares).

Remember that markets go up and down and it is unlikely the share price will move up in a straight line. In fact, it may even go much further down before it rises, especially considering how high the stock has already gone and the current fears of contagion from regulators taking control of Silicon Valley Bank in the US.

Be sure to exercise good risk management and always know how much you could potentially lose on a trade and the risks involved, as well as the costs.

With the Admirals Invest.MT5 account you can buy and sell US stocks with a commission from $0.02 per share. This means buying 10 shares in Ulta Beauty stock would result in a commission of $0.20 ($0.02 * 10 shares) for executing a per-side transaction.

There is a low minimum transaction fee of $1. So, the example trading idea above would result in a commission of just $1 overall! 

How to Buy Ulta Beauty Stock in 4 Steps  

With Admirals, you can buy shares in companies like Ulta Beauty with a low commission of just $0.02 per share and a low minimum commission of just $1 on US stocks. 

  1. Open an account with Admirals to access the Trader’s Room.   
  2. Click on Trade on one of your live or demo accounts to open the web platform.   
  3. Search for your stock at the bottom of the Market Watch window and drag the symbol onto the chart.   
  4. Use the one-click trading feature, or right-click and open a trading ticket to input your trade size, stop loss and take profit level. 
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5 Web. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. 


Click on the banner below to trade Ulta Beauty stock today! ▼▼▼ 

Do You See the Ulta Beauty Stock Price Moving Differently?   

Remember that all analytics and trading ideas are based on the personal view and experience of the author.  

If you believe there is a higher chance Ulta Beauty's share price will move lower, then you can also trade short from a CFD (Contracts for Difference) trading account which Admirals also provide.  

The Trade.MT5 and Trade.MT4 account allows you to speculate on the price direction of stocks and shares using CFDs.  

This means you can trade long and short to potentially profit from rising and falling stock prices. Learn more about CFDs in this How to Trade CFDs article. 


The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals’ investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:   

  • This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.    
  • Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content. 
  • With a view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for the prevention and management of conflicts of interest. 
  • The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Jitanchandra Solanki (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.    
  • Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.    
  • Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed. 
  • Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. 
Jitanchandra Solanki
Jitanchandra Solanki Financial Markets Author, Admirals London

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.