Bitcoin Ahead of Fed Decision: BTC Returns to About $81,000
Bitcoin rose almost 2% on Wednesday 28 October 2026. It traded close to $81,000 before the US Federal Reserve's rate decision. Investing.com put it at $81,560.5 at 06:21 ET, up from a low near $79,500 earlier in the week. The same report put Bitcoin on course for a 3.2% loss in October. The FOMC statement is due at 14:00 ET, which is 18:00 in the UK and 20:00 in Kyiv.
Markets widely expect the Fed to keep its range at 3.75% to 4.00%. The focus is on any hint of a December hike. CoinDesk noted that a daily close above $82,500 could signal that the recovery is gaining momentum. This article was written before the decision and does not assume its outcome.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Bitcoin Fed Decision Today: The Short Answers
- Why Is Bitcoin Up Today?
- Bitcoin Price Today: Market Snapshot on 28 October
- What Time Is the Fed Decision?
- Fed Meeting Today: What to Expect
- How Do Interest Rates Affect Bitcoin?
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
- Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Levels Before the Fed
- Galaxy Research Bitcoin Call: Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Over?
- BTC Price Forecast: What Analysts Say
- Scenarios After the Fed Decision
- Key Events After the Fed
- Bitcoin Over the Past Five Years
- Supportive Factors and Risks
- Bitcoin and the Fed: Risk Practices Around the Meeting
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Bitcoin Before the Fed: The Bottom Line
Cryptoassets such as Bitcoin are highly volatile, and you could lose all the money you invest. Investor protection schemes may not apply to them.
Bitcoin Fed Decision Today: The Short Answers
The table below sums up the main points before the announcement. Every figure is a snapshot from 28 October unless another date is given.
Sources: Investing.com, CoinDesk, Coinspeaker, Cointelegraph, 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The chart below shows the BTC/USD daily price.
Why Is Bitcoin Up Today?
Market reports link the bounce to several factors. Risk appetite improved in equity markets. ETF demand returned after two heavy days of outflows. Coins also left exchanges ahead of the event.
A tech rally lifts risk appetite
Strong earnings from memory chip maker SK Hynix sparked a rally in technology and chip stocks. Investing.com said this helped crypto, as the sector often moves in step with tech. The same report noted that the AI trade has also drawn money away from crypto in recent months.
The link with equities can cut both ways. Microsoft and Alphabet report after Wednesday's close, and Amazon reports on Thursday, per Tradingpedia. A weak reaction to those results could weigh on risk assets in general.
ETF demand returns after two days of outflows
US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on Monday, 26 October. Crypto Briefing reported that BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) took the entire amount. Every other fund in the group recorded zero net flows that day.
A larger inflow followed on Tuesday, 27 October. Funds added about $176 million, with IBIT at $151.5 million, according to SoSoValue data reported by Coin-Turk. The two-day total reached $286 million.
Coins leave exchanges
Santiment data showed net outflows of about 14,942 BTC from exchanges. Coin-Turk described it as the largest single-day withdrawal in five weeks. Santiment said this could point to lower sell pressure. It also noted that such moves may simply reflect custody transfers.
Bitcoin Price Today: Market Snapshot on 28 October
Prices differ by exchange and by the minute. The table lists timestamped quotes from several sources.
Sources: CoinDesk, Blockchain.News, Cryptoticker, Investing.com, The Cryptonomist, Coinspeaker, 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The recent low depends on the venue. Investing.com shows $79,496.8, while other trackers show $79,416 or a dip to nearly $79,000. This article therefore refers to a low "near $79,500" when it quotes Investing.com.
Market breadth and sentiment
Sources: The Cryptonomist, Cointelegraph, Coin-Turk, Cryptoticker, Investing.com, data as reported on 27 and 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Other large coins on the day
Several large coins also rose in Asian hours. ZEC led with a jump of about 8% to around $1,320, per CoinDesk. Ether gained about 2% to just above $2,350. SOL climbed about 2% to $102. These moves are market news only. A mention here does not mean that a CFD on the coin is offered, and crypto CFDs are not available to retail clients in the UK.
What Time Is the Fed Decision?
The Fed's two-day meeting runs from 27 to 28 October. The Federal Reserve calendar lists the statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, October 2026 calendar. The UK is on GMT after 25 October. The US stays on daylight time until 1 November.
What traders often watch at 18:00 UK
- The first item is the rate decision itself, though a hold is widely priced in.
- The second item is the vote count and the number of dissents.
- Traders also read the statement for any change in wording on inflation.
- During the press conference, they listen for Kevin Warsh's comments on December.
- The first minutes after the statement can bring sharp moves in either direction.
Fed Meeting Today: What to Expect
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September. That move took the range to 3.75% to 4.00%. It was the first hike since July 2023, according to Admirals' review of the September decision.
Since then, inflation data have stayed firm. September consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Payrolls grew by just 29,000 in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. These figures come from the Coinspeaker preview.
Rate odds for today and December
Sources: Coinspeaker, Reuters via Investing.com, CME FedWatch, 28 October 2026. Odds change during the day. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The Reuters hold figure is derived from its 9.4% hike chance. The Fed December hike odds differ by venue and by the hour they were taken.
What major banks expect
A Reuters factbox shows that most large brokerages expect a hold today and one more hike in December. BofA Global Research is the main outlier.
Source: selected brokerages from the Reuters factbox via Investing.com, 28 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Why the number of dissents matters
Three regional Fed presidents voted for a hike in July when the rest of the committee held, per Coinspeaker. On Polymarket, two dissents were the most likely outcome at 33.5%. Three dissents stood at 28%. Zero dissents stood at 23%.
Matt Weller of FOREX.com calls two or more dissents a "true hawkish hold", per Coinspeaker. Zero dissents could cast doubt on a December move. SMBC's Joseph LaVorgna also pointed to the timing, six days before the 3 November midterm elections.
The September projections
Sources: investingLive, Admirals, 16 to 18 September 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Warsh took office as Fed Chair in late May 2026, per Admirals. He has largely avoided forward guidance and has said he does not "prejudge meetings", according to Coinspeaker. The broader central bank picture is covered in Admirals' central banks week preview.
How Do Interest Rates Affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin pays holders zero interest. When safer assets offer higher yields, the opportunity cost of holding it rises. Higher rates also tend to support the US dollar. Both effects have often weighed on crypto prices.
The US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 5.00% on 26 October, according to FRED. Galaxy Research noted it touched 5.31% earlier this month, its highest since 2007, per Decrypt. The two-year yield was 4.68% on Monday, 68 basis points above the top of the Fed's range, per Coinspeaker.
Sources: Decrypt, Coinspeaker. This table describes general relationships, which may not hold in every period.
How Bitcoin reacted to Fed decisions in 2026
Coinspeaker reviewed Binance data for every Fed decision this year. Bitcoin fell in the 24 hours after three of the five holds. The average move across all five holds was a drop of 2.6%.
Source: Coinspeaker, based on Binance data, 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The sample is small. A positive reaction to the September hike shows that the market response can differ from the textbook view.
Coinspeaker described the decision itself as mostly priced in. In its view, crypto traders will focus more on Warsh's press conference and any hint on December.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows
ETF flows have swung sharply in October. The table shows the latest daily totals for US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, and SoSoValue data via Coin-Turk and Cointelegraph. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Spot Ether ETFs moved the other way. They lost about $149 million over Monday and Tuesday. Their October outflows reached $1.32 billion, which puts the month on track for the largest outflows since November 2025, per Cointelegraph.
US spot crypto ETFs may be unavailable to retail investors in the UK and EU. Rules on product documents such as the KID can restrict access.
The ETF cost basis near $81,500
Glassnode estimates the average purchase price of US spot ETF holdings at about $81,500. Cryptoticker, citing Yahoo Finance, noted that BTC at $80,913 sat about 0.72% below that line. Some traders watch this level as a pivot. Above it, the average ETF holding is back in profit.
Retail selling pressure
Not all flow data look supportive. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost found that retail Bitcoin deposits to Binance nearly doubled to $10.8 billion over 30 days. Deposits from large holders fell to $3.8 billion over the same period. The data were reported by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Levels Before the Fed
On the daily chart, price sits just under a dense resistance cluster. The 20-day and 50-day averages converge just below $82,000. Longer-term averages sit well below the price.
BTC Key Levels
Sources: Blockchain.News, Coinspeaker, The Cryptonomist, Decrypt, 28 October 2026. Levels vary by data provider. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Momentum indicators
Sources: Blockchain.News, The Cryptonomist, Coin-Turk, 28 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Which moving average?
Sources quote different long-term averages, so the type matters. The 200-day simple average is $73,108.52, per Blockchain.News. The 200-day exponential average is $75,856.31 on Binance, per The Cryptonomist. Coinspeaker shows $76,442 for the same EMA. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno lists the 365-day average at $77,585, per Coin-Turk.
The Cryptonomist sees the daily structure as constructive. It also notes that BTC has yet to reclaim its daily EMA20 at $81,843.36. In its view, regaining that line and the Bollinger midline would strengthen the recovery case. Rekt Capital names $80,000 as the main support, per Coin-Turk.
Galaxy Research Bitcoin Call: Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Over?
Earlier this week, Galaxy's head of research Alex Thorn argued that the bear market ended in June. In his note, quoted by CoinDesk, he said Bitcoin is now "in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance".
Bitcoin traded near $58,000 at the June low. Decrypt reported that Galaxy and Thorn disclose holding Bitcoin. That disclosure is useful context for readers.
Sources: Decrypt, Cointelegraph, Coin-Turk, October 2026.
Thorn added that Bitcoin "has proven its ability to run to at least $125k", per Decrypt. This is one firm's view. Investor Jason Calacanis takes the opposite side and expects a fall to $57,000 within 12 months, as reported by Cryptoticker.
BTC Price Forecast: What Analysts Say
Forecasts vary widely. The table lists views published by named firms and analysts. None of them is a reliable guide to what may happen.
Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Scenarios After the Fed Decision
The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe possible reactions drawn from the sources cited. They are not predictions, and other outcomes are possible.
Sources: Coinspeaker, Blockchain.News. Illustrative only. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What Happens to Bitcoin if the Fed Holds?
A hold is the base case for most desks. In that case, the tone may matter more than the decision. Coinspeaker expects a firm December signal to lift yields and the dollar, which has tended to weigh on Bitcoin. A softer message could have the opposite effect.
What Happens to Bitcoin if the Fed Hikes?
A hike today would surprise the market, with odds of roughly 5% to 9%. Surprises can trigger sharp moves in leveraged positions. Around 66% of Binance accounts were net long on Wednesday morning, per Blockchain.News. That could add to volatility in a sell-off.
Key Events After the Fed
The Fed is only the first event in a busy stretch. Several data releases follow within days.
Sources: BEA release schedule, ECB meeting calendar, Admirals, BLS jobs schedule, BLS CPI schedule, Federal Reserve December calendar, Coinspeaker. US clocks change on 1 November.
Release dates can be tracked on the Admirals economic calendar.
Bitcoin Options Expiry October 30
A total of 149,686 BTC option contracts expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday. That was a notional value of about $12.2 billion when Cryptoticker counted them on 17 October.
Source: Cryptoticker, data as of 17 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Max pain is the price at which option buyers as a group would lose the most value at expiry. Some traders watch whether price drifts towards it before expiry. That pattern is far from reliable.
Midterm years and the fourth quarter
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Bitcoin fell in the fourth quarter of the last three US midterm years. The declines were 16.70% in 2014 and 42.16% in 2018. The fall in 2022 was 14.75%. These figures come from Coin-Turk. Three cycles make a very small sample. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Bitcoin Over the Past Five Years
Short-term moves look different against a longer history. The table shows calendar-year returns for BTC/USD.
Source: ChartRow, Bitcoin returns by year, based on daily closes to 27 October 2026. Figures vary by data provider. Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The record high of $126,080 came in October 2025, per Cryptoticker. The cycle low came in late June 2026, near $58,000, per CoinDesk. That path shows how deep and fast the swings can be.
Supportive Factors and Risks
The setup has arguments on both sides. The table sets them out.
Sources: Coin-Turk, Blockchain.News, Decrypt, Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin and the Fed: Risk Practices Around the Meeting
Central bank days can bring fast moves and wide spreads. Admirals' guide on how to trade the Fed rate decision explains the general mechanics. Traders often use a few common habits around such events.
- Many traders check the economic calendar before the event.
- Some reduce position size before a major release.
- Others wait for the press conference to end before acting.
- Stop-loss orders are a common tool to manage risk, though gaps can cause slippage.
- Traders often compare the reaction in BTC with the dollar and Treasury yields.
Risk management matters more on days like this. Volatility can rise quickly after the statement. Admirals' article on market volatility covers the basics.
Ways to get Bitcoin exposure
Crypto CFDs are not available to retail clients in the UK. Elsewhere, access depends on the client's country of residence and client category. Source: FCA, which confirmed in its crypto ETN update that the ban remains in place.
At Admirals, BTCUSD is offered as a contract for difference (CFD) on cryptocurrency for eligible clients. The cryptocurrency CFD page lists the conditions. A CFD is a contract, and the trader never owns any bitcoin. Crypto CFDs are not available to retail clients in the UK, and availability elsewhere depends on the client's country and client category.
Admirals also offers CFDs on Forex and indices. It offers CFDs on commodities as well. The guide to Bitcoin CFDs explains how these contracts work. The latest BTCUSD analysis for October 2026 adds more background.
Some traders first practise on a demo account. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading. Platforms such as MetaTrader 5 offer charting tools for the levels discussed above.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Fed decision today?
The FOMC statement is due at 14:00 ET, which is 18:00 UK time and 20:00 in Kyiv.
Why is Bitcoin up today?
A tech stock rally lifted risk appetite. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also took in $286 million over two days.
What does a hawkish hold mean for Bitcoin?
It means unchanged rates with signals of more hikes. That has often lifted yields and pressured Bitcoin.
What is the key level for Bitcoin after the Fed?
CoinDesk flagged a daily close above $82,500 as a sign of momentum. Rekt Capital names $80,000 as main support.
Did ETF flows turn positive this week?
Yes. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $110.3 million on 26 October and about $176 million on 27 October.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The next Fed meeting runs on 8 and 9 December 2026. It brings new projections and a press conference.
Are crypto CFDs available in the UK?
Crypto CFDs are not available to retail clients in the UK. Access elsewhere depends on country and client category.
Bitcoin Before the Fed: The Bottom Line
Bitcoin has recovered to around $81,000 after a dip near $79,500 earlier in the week. ETF inflows have returned, and sentiment sits in neutral territory. Price still trades below a resistance cluster near $82,000.
Markets price a hold at 90% or more, so the dissents and Warsh's tone on December are the bigger unknowns. Thursday's GDP and PCE data then follow. Friday's options expiry could add one more source of volatility. All prices and odds in this article were taken before the statement and may have changed since.
Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.
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