TKMS Stock Forecast 2026: Frigate Orders Meet a Muted Share Price
The German warship builder TKMS has won what it calls the largest surface vessel contract in its history (Asia Pacific Defence Reporter). TKMS stock traded at €83.70 on Xetra at 13:54 CEST on 16 October 2026, up about 4.0% on the day (StockAnalysis). Even so, the share sits about 23% below its August peak of €108.80. The next hard test is the full-year report on 7 December 2026.
This article explains what TKMS does and why the frigate order matters. It then looks at the latest results and analyst targets. Key price levels and illustrative scenarios follow. The final sections cover the main risks and a calendar of dates that markets often watch.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- TKMS stock today: the short answer
- What is TKMS AG & Co. KGaA?
- Why the frigate order matters for TKMS stock
- Results and guidance
- TKMS backlog and order pipeline
- TKMS stock performance since listing
- TKMS valuation
- TKMS price target and analyst views
- TKMS technical analysis
- Illustrative scenarios for TKMS stock
- TKMS stock risks
- Key dates for TKMS stock
- How traders often approach TKMS stock
- Frequently Asked Questions
TKMS stock today: the short answer
The stock has rebounded this week after a weak start to October. It closed at €74.70 on 7 October, its lowest close of the autumn. By the 16 October snapshot it had gained about 12% from that level (StockAnalysis price history). Measured from its first close of €81.10 in October 2025, the share is up only about 3%.
Order news has been frequent in recent months. Germany approved four more MEKO A-200 DEU frigates on 8 October. That brings the planned class to eight ships. The two tranches of €6.3bn and €5.3bn add up to about €11.6bn, by our calculation from figures in Defense News. The share price reaction on the day was small. Börse Express described the record order as leaving the price "cold" (Börse Express).
| Item | Value | Time / note |
|---|---|---|
| Last price (Xetra, delayed) | €83.70 | 16 Oct 2026, 13:54 CEST (12:54 UK, 07:54 ET) |
| Change on the day | +€3.20 (+4.0%) | vs €80.50 close on 15 Oct |
| Day's range | €80.30 to €84.70 | same snapshot |
| Open | €80.70 | 16 Oct 2026 |
| 52-week range | €57.00 to €108.80 | StockAnalysis |
| Market capitalisation | about €5.32bn | 63.52m shares × €83.70 |
| Trailing P/E | 63.4x | StockAnalysis, based on the 15 Oct close of €80.50 |
| Forward P/E | 30.9x | StockAnalysis, based on the 15 Oct close of €80.50 |
| Index | MDAX component | Wikipedia |
Source: StockAnalysis, TKMS overview, StockAnalysis, price history and Wikipedia. Prices are delayed and change during the session. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
What is TKMS AG & Co. KGaA?
The listed company is TKMS AG & Co. KGaA, ISIN DE000TKMS001, WKN TKMS00. Many readers still call it ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems. It builds conventional submarines and surface warships. Its Atlas Elektronik unit makes sonar and naval electronics (Wikipedia).
The headquarters is in Kiel. The group employs more than 9,700 people after recent hiring, according to Hansa. Its main shipyards are in Kiel and Wismar.
From thyssenkrupp division to listed company
TKMS was spun off from thyssenkrupp. The TKMS first trading day on Xetra was 20 October 2025. Shareholders of thyssenkrupp received one TKMS share for every 20 thyssenkrupp shares (Der Aktionär / dpa-AFX).
The shares opened at €60 (Bloomberg). They closed the first day at €81.10 (Der Aktionär / dpa-AFX). Several outlets call €60 the "IPO price". It was the first traded price of a spin-off, so it was never an issue price.
Who owns TKMS?
| Shareholder | Stake | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| thyssenkrupp AG | 51% | Former parent, kept a majority |
| Alfried Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation | about 10% | Long-standing thyssenkrupp anchor holder |
| Free float | about 39% | Institutional and retail investors |
Source: Wikipedia, TKMS. Free float is our calculation from the two stakes shown.
The thyssenkrupp stake in TKMS matters for the share. A future sale of part of that 51% could add supply to the market. That is one of the risks covered further down.
Business segments
TKMS reports three segments. The figures below come from the nine-month report for October 2025 to June 2026.
| Segment | Sales 9M 2025/26 | Adjusted EBIT 9M 2025/26 | What it does |
|---|---|---|---|
| Submarines | €1,001m | €46m (prior year €11m) | Type 212CD, Type 214 and Type 218 boats |
| Surface Vessels | €408m | €30m | MEKO frigates and corvettes |
| Atlas Elektronik | €612m (+28%) | €59m | Sonar, torpedoes, mine countermeasures |
Source: TKMS nine-month release, 12 August 2026 and Hansa. Segment sales do not add up to group sales because of consolidation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why the frigate order matters for TKMS stock
Germany cancels F126
The German Navy had ordered six F126 frigates from a Damen-led team. On 24 June 2026 the Bundeswehr ended that programme (Janes). It compared the MEKO costs with an F126 bill "in the order of" €18bn. The failed programme had cost Germany more than €2bn without a delivered ship, according to ARD as cited by Defense News.
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | TKMS starts preliminary work on the MEKO A-200 DEU |
| 24 Jun 2026 | Bundeswehr cancels F126 and favours up to eight MEKO A-200 DEU |
| 8 Jul 2026 | Budget committee approves the first four ships with an option for four more |
| 14 Jul 2026 | Contract for the first four ships signed (about €6.3bn) |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Budget committee approves the four-ship option |
| 2029 | Planned delivery of the first frigate |
Source: Janes, Grosswald frigate tracker, Hansa (February 2026 start) and Defense News.
The MEKO A-200 DEU contract in numbers
The ships are sometimes called the F128 class. The TKMS MEKO A-200 order is the main driver of the recent growth in the order book.
| Tranche | Ships | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| First batch | 4 | about €6.3bn | Signed 14 July 2026 |
| Option (second batch) | 4 | about €5.3bn build value, about €5.6bn with support and reserves | Approved 8 October 2026 |
| Total programme | 8 | about €11.6bn | First delivery planned for 2029 |
| Operating costs of the second batch to 2045 | 4 | about €1.55bn | Reuters, as cited by Defense News |
Source: Defense News and Grosswald frigate tracker. The programme total is our calculation from the two tranches.
TKMS called the eight-ship run its largest surface vessel contract ever (Asia Pacific Defence Reporter). Damen, the former F126 prime contractor, is seeking €4.7bn in damages from the German state (Defense News). That dispute does not involve TKMS directly. It may still colour the politics of naval procurement.
Why the share reaction was muted
Share prices can reflect expected orders before they are signed. The option for the second batch had been known since June. Part of it may already have been reflected in analyst models.
Börse Express noted the flat reaction on 8 and 9 October (Börse Express). The stock closed at €74.80 on the approval day, up only 0.1% (StockAnalysis). Wider sector moves may also have played a part. Our guide to European defence stocks covers other names in the sector.
Results and guidance
Nine-month results 2025/26
TKMS has a financial year that ends on 30 September. The TKMS nine month results were published on 12 August 2026.
| Metric | 9M 2025/26 | Change / comment |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | €1,890m | +19% year on year |
| Adjusted EBIT | €110m | +13%, consensus was about €101m |
| Adjusted EBIT margin | 5.8% | Prior year 6.1% |
| Order intake | €3.6bn | Before the MEKO booking |
| Order backlog | €20.1bn | Record at 30 June 2026 |
| Free cash flow | minus €204m | Project timing |
Source: TKMS nine-month release and Hansa. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
TKMS CEO Oliver Burkhard said in the nine-month release that "we deliver on our promises, and this is clearly reflected in our current business results" (TKMS release). CFO Paul Glaser said in the same release that executing the backlog "remains a top priority".
The margin fell slightly from a year earlier. Cash flow was also negative. Both points matter for the valuation debate below.
TKMS guidance raised twice
The company has lifted its sales outlook twice in the 2025/26 financial year. The table shows the path for 2025/26.
| Date | Sales growth outlook | Adjusted EBIT margin outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 (initial) | minus 1% to plus 2% | above 6% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | plus 2% to plus 5% | above 6% (unchanged) |
| 12 Aug 2026 | plus 10% to plus 12% | up to 6.5% |
| Medium term | about 10% a year on average | above 7% |
Source: Il Sole 24 Ore, Baird Maritime and TKMS nine-month release. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Sales were €2.17bn in 2024/25 (StockAnalysis). Growth of 10% to 12% would put 2025/26 sales at roughly €2.39bn to €2.43bn. That is our own calculation from the company range.
The market has not always rewarded higher guidance. On 11 February the share fell 1.4% to €93.45 despite the first raise (Der Aktionär / dpa-AFX). After the August raise it closed 8.5% higher at €94.20 (Hansa).
TKMS dividend plans
TKMS plans its first dividend in 2027 for the 2025/26 year. Hansa reported a policy of paying 20% to 30% of adjusted consolidated profit (Hansa). Earlier company communication gave a different range, so the final proposal may differ from both. Any dividend depends on profits and board decisions, so it may not be paid. Hansa also pointed out that free cash flow was negative at the nine-month stage.
TKMS backlog and order pipeline
The TKMS backlog stood at a record €20.1bn at 30 June 2026. Including the first MEKO batch, booked after that date, it is above €25bn (Hansa). That is more than 11 times sales of €2.17bn in 2024/25.
Submarine pipeline beyond Germany
| Programme | Customer | Scope | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Type 212CD submarine | Norway | Six boats (raised from four) | Contract extended in early 2026 |
| Type 212CD | Canada | Up to 12 boats, reported above €15bn plus 40 years of support | TKMS named preferred supplier on 6 July 2026 |
| P-75I | India (with Mazagon Dock) | Six boats plus an option for three | Awaiting Cabinet Committee on Security approval |
Source: Naval News, USNI News and Hansa.
Canada is the largest open item. Burkhard expects a signing by the end of 2026, while Ottawa's own timeline points to 2027. Hanwha of South Korea remains the reserve supplier (Hansa). In India, the finance ministry and the National Security Council Secretariat have approved the India P-75I project, according to Hansa. The final cabinet step is still open.
Other pipeline items
- The F127 air-defence frigate has a US export clearance worth up to $11.9bn for eight shipsets.
- A reported F127 estimate above €40bn is disputed and has not reached the budget committee.
- TKMS withdrew its bid for German Naval Yards Kiel on 21 July 2026.
- The company is investing more than €200m in its Wismar yard.
- Demand for mine countermeasures from the Middle East has risen as a result of the war in Iran, according to the CEO.
The F127 points come from the Grosswald frigate tracker. The Kiel bid is covered by Börse Express. The Wismar and Middle East points come from Hansa.
TKMS stock performance since listing
TKMS has been listed only since 20 October 2025. There is therefore less than one full 12-month period of price history. The first anniversary falls on 20 October 2026. Five years of data do not exist for this share.
Calendar-year record
| Year | TKMS share status | Start | End | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Not listed (thyssenkrupp division) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2022 | Not listed (thyssenkrupp division) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2023 | Not listed (thyssenkrupp division) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2024 | Not listed (thyssenkrupp division) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| 2025 (from 20 Oct) | Listed on Xetra | €60.00 open / €81.10 first close | €66.15 (30 Dec) | +10.3% vs open, minus 18.4% vs first close |
| 2026 (to 16 Oct, intraday) | Listed on Xetra | €66.15 | €83.70 | about +26.5% |
| Since first close (20 Oct 2025 to 16 Oct 2026) | Listed on Xetra | €81.10 | €83.70 | about +3.2% |
Source: StockAnalysis price history, Börse Global (2025 year-end close) and Der Aktionär (first day). Changes are our calculation, before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The figures show a volatile year. The share has gained about 3% from its first close, despite a peak 34% above that level in August.
Key price milestones in 2026
| Date | Close (Xetra) | What happened |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb 2026 | €93.45 | Share slipped despite the first guidance raise |
| 12 Aug 2026 | €94.20 | Nine-month results, +8.5% on the day |
| 14 Aug 2026 | €104.00 | Highest close, intraday record of €108.80 |
| 1 Sep 2026 | €83.10 | Fell 5.5% in one session |
| 7 Oct 2026 | €74.70 | Lowest close of the autumn |
| 8 Oct 2026 | €74.80 | Second frigate batch approved |
| 15 Oct 2026 | €80.50 | Rebound continues |
Source: StockAnalysis price history and Der Aktionär (11 February). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The order book is now above €25bn, more than 11 times annual sales. Yet the share trades about 23% below its August high. Orders take years to turn into cash, and the share price has not always tracked the order book.
TKMS valuation
Valuation metrics
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Market capitalisation | about €5.32bn | At €83.70 |
| Trailing P/E | 63.4x | Based on trailing EPS of €1.27 and the 15 Oct close of €80.50 |
| Forward P/E | 30.9x | Based on analyst estimates and the 15 Oct close |
| Revenue (trailing 12 months) | €2.47bn | +14.6% |
| Backlog to 2024/25 sales | more than 11x | Our calculation |
| Analyst consensus target | €108.13 | 8 analysts, Buy |
Source: StockAnalysis, TKMS overview, 16 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The TKMS P/E ratio looks high against many industrial stocks. Supporters point to the long visibility of the backlog. Critics point to thin margins and lumpy cash flow. Kepler Cheuvreux said in June that it considered the valuation far too high in the current market (Trading-Treff). The price-to-earnings figure is one tool among several, as our explainer on the price-to-book ratio shows for another common metric.
TKMS vs Rheinmetall and thyssenkrupp
| Company | Ticker | Link to TKMS | Recent naval news |
|---|---|---|---|
| TKMS | XETR:TKMS | The listed naval group | Prime contractor for eight MEKO A-200 DEU frigates |
| Rheinmetall | XETR:RHM | Rival in German naval shipbuilding | Lost the F126 role, kept F123 sustainment work |
| thyssenkrupp | XETR:TKA | Holds 51% of TKMS | Exposure to TKMS through its stake |
Source: Grosswald frigate tracker and Wikipedia.
The TKMS vs Rheinmetall comparison comes up often among German defence stocks. Rheinmetall is a much larger group with land systems and ammunition at its core. TKMS is a pure naval play. KNDS, another European defence group, suspended its planned listing in July 2026, as described in our KNDS IPO article.
TKMS price target and analyst views
Broker ratings
| Broker | Rating | TKMS price target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| mwb research | Buy | €140 | Aug 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform (from Market-Perform) | €125 (from €76) | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Metzler | Buy | €115 (from €105) | Aug 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | €112 | 13 Aug 2026 |
| Stifel (Thomas Mordelle) | Buy (initiation) | €105 | Sep 2026 |
| Kepler Cheuvreux | Reduce | €66 | 10 Jun 2026 |
Source: stock3 (Bernstein, Deutsche Bank, mwb), Börse Global (Metzler), Trading-Treff (Stifel) and Trading-Treff (Kepler Cheuvreux). Ratings may have changed since these dates. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The range is wide. The highest target is more than twice the lowest, with €140 against €66. Bernstein's upgrade in August came with a jump of almost 12% intraday (stock3).
Consensus snapshots
| Provider | Ratings | Average target | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| StockAnalysis | Buy, 8 analysts | €108.13 | 16 Oct 2026 |
| aktien.guide | 11 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell | €107.10 | Oct 2026 |
| Börse Express | 5 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell | €115 (range €105 to €140) | Oct 2026 |
Source: StockAnalysis, aktien.guide and Börse Express. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Consensus targets sit around €107 to €115. These are opinions of third parties. They may be revised quickly after the 7 December results.
TKMS technical analysis
Moving averages
| Indicator | Level | Price vs indicator |
|---|---|---|
| 10-day simple moving average | about €78.0 | Above |
| 20-day simple moving average | about €80.2 | Above |
| TKMS 50 day moving average | about €85.4 | Below |
| 200-day simple moving average | about €85.5 | Below |
Source: our calculation from StockAnalysis daily closes to 16 Oct 2026 (13:54 CEST); 200-day figure from Börse Express. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The price has moved back above its short-term averages. It still sits below a cluster of the 50-day and 200-day averages at about €85.4 to €85.5. Traders often treat such a cluster as a test zone.
TKMS support and resistance
| Level | Type | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| €108.80 | Major resistance | 52-week and all-time intraday high, 14 Aug 2026 |
| €104.00 | Resistance | Highest close, 14 Aug 2026 |
| €94 to €96.70 | Resistance | 12 Aug gap close and 18 to 19 Aug closes |
| €85.40 to €87.90 | Key resistance | 50 and 200-day averages, 31 Aug close |
| €80 to €81 | Pivot | Late-September range, first-day close of €81.10 |
| €72.40 to €74.70 | Key support | 7 Oct low close, 8 Oct intraday low |
| €66.15 | Support | 2025 year-end close |
| €57 to €60 | Major support | 52-week low and first traded price |
Source: StockAnalysis price history. Levels are illustrative and based on past prices. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Illustrative scenarios for TKMS stock
The scenarios below are illustrative only. They describe how markets could react to different outcomes. They are not predictions.
| Scenario | Possible triggers | Levels traders often watch |
|---|---|---|
| Positive | Strong full-year results plus progress in Canada or India | Some chartists would watch €94 to €96.70 after a close above the €85.40 to €87.90 zone |
| Base | Orders convert slowly, margin stays near 6% | A range between about €74 and €90 |
| Negative | A margin or cash miss, or a sector de-rating | Some chartists would watch €66.15 after a close below €72.40 |
Source: our analysis based on StockAnalysis price history and Hansa. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Positive case
The positive case may need several things to go well at once. Full-year results could land at the top of the guided range. A confident outlook for 2026/27 could follow. A signed Canadian contract would add a very large order.
Negative case
The negative case could start with execution problems. Eight frigates plus a full submarine order book could strain the yards in Kiel and Wismar. A weak cash figure on 7 December could also weigh on the share. Defence shares can also react sharply to news about ceasefire talks in Ukraine.
TKMS stock risks
Pros and cons
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| Record backlog above €25bn | Margin of 5.8% in 9M, below the prior year |
| Sales guidance raised twice in 2026 | Free cash flow of minus €204m in 9M |
| Eight-ship German frigate programme | Possible capacity strain on the Kiel and Wismar yards |
| Large export pipeline in Canada and India | Canada and India are still unsigned |
| First dividend planned for 2027 | Trailing P/E of 63.4x |
| Majority holder with long-term ties | Possible sale of shares by thyssenkrupp |
Source: Hansa, TKMS nine-month release and StockAnalysis.
Key risks in detail
- Execution risk rises when a record backlog meets limited yard capacity.
- Project cash flows are lumpy and depend on customer down payments.
- German procurement depends on budget votes and political support.
- Export deals in Canada and India could slip or fail.
- A share sale by thyssenkrupp could weigh on the price.
- Defence stocks can fall sharply on peace or ceasefire headlines.
Hansa linked the planned dividend directly to expected down payments from Canada and India (Hansa). The share has also been volatile. It fell 5.5% on 1 September alone (StockAnalysis).
Key dates for TKMS stock
| Date | Event | Time |
|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct 2026 | First anniversary of the listing | n/a |
| 12 Nov 2026 | Bundestag budget committee clean-up session for Budget 2027 | Not published |
| 24 to 27 Nov 2026 | Second and third reading of Budget 2027, final vote 27 Nov | Not published |
| 7 Dec 2026 | TKMS annual results for 2025/26 | Not yet published |
| By end-2026 | Navantia submarine cooperation framework targeted | n/a |
| End-2026 or 2027 | Possible Canada Type 212CD contract | n/a |
Source: Deutscher Bundestag, StockAnalysis (earnings date), TKMS release (Navantia) and Hansa (Canada).
The 7 December report is expected to include the fourth-quarter MEKO booking. It may also bring the first outlook for 2026/27 and the dividend proposal. The economic calendar helps traders follow wider German data around these dates.
How traders often approach TKMS stock
Common ways to gain exposure
Investors can hold the shares directly through a stockbroker. Others trade price moves with derivatives such as contracts for difference. Our guide on what CFD trading is explains how these products work.
Admirals offers CFDs on shares and indices. It also offers CFDs on Forex and commodities. Shares and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are offered as well. Details are on the share CFDs page. The range of available instruments varies by region, and readers can check the platform for current specifications.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
What traders often watch
- Traders often watch the 7 December results for cash flow and margin.
- Markets have often reacted to defence budget votes in Berlin.
- Some analysts focus on the timing of the Canadian contract.
- Many chartists watch the €85.40 to €87.90 resistance zone.
- Position sizing and stop-loss orders are common tools to manage risk.
- Stop-loss orders may not be filled at the set level when prices gap.
German market context
TKMS is an MDAX share, so moves in the wider German market can also affect it. Our guide to DAX trading covers the main German index. The chart below shows a CFD on the DAX.
Practising first
A demo account uses virtual funds. Results may differ from live trading. Some traders use one to test a plan on MetaTrader 5 before they commit real money.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is TKMS?
TKMS is a German naval shipbuilder based in Kiel that builds submarines and frigates and owns Atlas Elektronik.
Who owns TKMS?
Thyssenkrupp holds 51% of TKMS. The Krupp Foundation holds about 10%, and the rest is free float.
What is the TKMS ticker?
The shares trade on Xetra under the ticker TKMS. The ISIN is DE000TKMS001 and the WKN is TKMS00.
What is the TKMS price target?
As of October 2026, published targets ranged from €66 to €140, with consensus near €107 to €115. Targets can change.
When is the TKMS earnings date?
TKMS is due to publish its full-year 2025/26 results on 7 December 2026, according to StockAnalysis data.
Why did TKMS stock react so little to the frigate order?
The second batch had been expected since June, so much of it may already have been in the price.
Does TKMS pay a dividend?
TKMS has not paid one yet. It plans a first dividend for 2025/26 in 2027, though plans can change.
Is TKMS stock risky?
The share has been volatile since listing. Its price is sensitive to large contracts and German budget votes.
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Sources
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