How to Trade Affirm After Fiscal Q4 Earnings
Affirm Holdings is a US financial technology company operating a buy now, pay later platform, which lets shoppers split purchases into smaller instalments.
On 27 August, Affirm reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter and the financial year ended 30 June 2026. Quarterly revenue and gross merchandise volume both topped analyst expectations, whilst profitability improved significantly.
However, whilst inflationary pressure in the US may increase demand for Affirm’s products, it could also increase the rate of defaults. Keep reading to find out more and learn what analysts are predicting for the stock.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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Affirm Fiscal Q4 Performance Summary
- Total quarterly revenue rose 33% to $1.17 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.11 billion.
- Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), the total dollar value of all transactions net of refunds, increased 36% to $14.1 billion, topping analyst expectations of $13.39 billion.
- According to the shareholder letter, this represented the 11th consecutive quarter of 30% or faster GMV growth.
- Operating income soared 154% to $147.3 million, up from $58.1 million a year before. Operating margin subsequently rose to 12.6% compared to 6.6% the previous year.
- On an adjusted basis, operating income increased 49% to $353.4 million, lifting adjusted operating margin to 30.3%, up from 27.0% a year before.
- Net income surged to $1.62 billion, up from $69.2 million a year before, a number which CEO Max Levchin referred to as “ludicrous” in his shareholder letter.
- The increase was largely driven by a one-off, non-cash income tax benefit of $1,447.5 million, primarily related to the release of a valuation allowance on domestic deferred tax assets.
- However, even without the valuation allowance release, CEO Levchin said on the earnings call that fiscal Q4 was the company’s most profitable quarter ever.
- Active consumers grew 21% to 27.8 million, whilst transactions per active consumer increased 20% to 7.0 over the twelve-month period ended 30 June 2026.
- Over the full fiscal year, GMV climbed 37% to $50.2 billion and total revenue increased 32% to $4.26 billion. Adjusted operating income grew 59% to $1.24 billion, lifting adjusted operating margin to 29.0%, up from 24.1% the previous year.
- Affirm provided its financial outlook for fiscal year 2027, guiding for:
- GMV of more than $64.0 billion.
- Operating margin of more than 14.5% and adjusted operating margin of more than 30.5%.
- First quarter revenue between $1.19 billion and $1.22 billion.
Affirm 12-Month Analyst Stock Price Forecast
According to 27 Wall Street analysts, polled by TipRanks, offering a 12-month stock price forecast for Affirm Holdings over the past 3 months:
- Buy Ratings: 21
- Hold Ratings: 6
- Sell Ratings: 0
- Average Price Target: $100.46
- High Price Target: $124.00
- Low Price Target: $82.00
Source: TipRanks – Affirm Holdings. Date captured: 13 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Trading Strategy Example: Affirm Holdings
The following trading examples are for educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct independent research before making trading decisions. An example trading idea for Affirm could be as follows:
Two key considerations to keep in mind here are inflation and interest rates.
After Affirm’s fiscal Q4 earnings, CEO Max Levchin noted that, “in times of inflation, we see more demand because folks are budgeting”. However, if elevated prices continue to pressure household budgets, borrowers may struggle to repay their loans, which could increase the rate of defaults.
The prospect of higher interest rates also presents a risk. Affirm’s loans generally charge fixed rates of interest, whilst some of the funding which the company uses to support those loans carries variable rates. If borrowing costs rise, the difference between what it earns from loans and what it pays to fund them could narrow, pressuring profitability.
How to Buy Affirm Stock in 4 Steps
- Open an account with Admirals and complete the onboarding process to access the dashboard.
- Click on Trade or Invest on one of your live or demo accounts to open the Admirals Platform.
- Search for your stock in the search window at the top.
- Input your entry, stop-loss and take profit levels in the trading ticket.
Do You See the Affirm Stock Price Moving Differently?
If you believe there is a higher chance that the share price of Affirm Holdings will move lower, then you can also trade short using CFDs (Contracts for Difference). However, these have higher associated risks and are not suitable for all investors. Learn more about CFDs in this How to Trade CFDs article.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
