Gold Price Today: XAUUSD Outlook for the Week of November 9, 2026
Spot gold traded at about $4,111.53 per ounce at 12:20 GMT on Monday 9 November 2026, up 1.01% on the day, according to Trading Economics. The move extends last week's gain of roughly 5%, which Kitco and Reuters described as gold's best week in more than two months. That rebound followed a slide to a one-year low near $3,870 on 30 October, and gold remains roughly 27% below its January 2026 record.
The big test this week is Tuesday's US inflation report for October. It may confirm or challenge market bets on a Fed rate hike in December.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
Gold price today: where XAUUSD is trading
Gold opened the week firmer as oil prices eased. Expectations of a more hawkish Fed kept gains in check, as Trading Economics noted on Monday morning.
Source: Trading Economics, Kitco, Kitco and Reuters (one-year low). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Gold is still roughly 27% below its record of about $5,600 per ounce, set in late January 2026, based on Trading Economics data. The 5-year picture is in the longer-term outlook section below.
What moved gold last week
Three forces drove the rally from the 30 October low. A strong jobs report then took some of the shine off on Friday.
1. The midterm results weakened the dollar
Democrats won control of Congress in the 3 November midterm elections. Markets read the result as a limit on large tax and spending plans, so Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened. Gold jumped more than 3% on 4 November, its biggest daily gain since August, reported Energy Connects, citing Bloomberg. Our midterms night market review covers the first reaction across assets.
2. Lower oil prices eased inflation fears
Brent crude dropped below $100 a barrel on 4 November for the first time since early October. Concerns about supply disruption eased after President Trump played down the chance of strikes on Iran, reported Energy Connects. Cheaper oil lowers the inflation outlook, which reduces the pressure on the Fed to raise rates.
3. Short covering after the October sell-off
Ole Hansen of Saxo linked the rebound to short covering after the break below $3,970 had drawn in momentum sellers, in his weekly commodities note.
Friday's jobs report capped the rally
US payrolls rose by 165,000 in October against 65,000 expected, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, according to investingLive. Yields rose after the data, and gold slipped back towards $4,070.
Source: Kitco, Energy Connects. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Technical picture: support and resistance, trend
The trend since August is still down. Gold trades below its 50-week exponential moving average at $4,247, according to FXEmpire. For now, price is holding inside a $4,000 to $4,200 range.
Source: FXEmpire, Saxo, Kitco, levels as of 6 Nov 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Many chart readers build such maps with pivot points, which mark levels from the prior session's range.
Several analysts quoted here are watching for a weekly close outside the $4,000 to $4,200 range, which has contained the rebound so far.
The week ahead: data and Fed events
The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October. Two officials voted for a hike, as the FOMC statement shows. As of 9 November, markets priced about an 81% chance of a quarter-point hike before year-end, up from 71% before the jobs data, according to Trading Economics. Our review of the October Fed decision explains the background.
Source: Saxo week ahead, ThriveInMarkets calendar. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The CPI report has a quirk this month. October 2025 data were never collected because of last year's shutdown, so annual rates for some indices may be missing. That puts more weight on the monthly readings, as Saxo points out. Continuum Economics expects a more moderate month, with both headline and core at +0.2%.
The next Fed decision is due on 9 December, as listed in the FOMC meeting schedule. The Admirals economic calendar tracks release times in your own time zone.
Gold price scenarios this week
The scenarios below are illustrative. They summarise possible reactions described by the analysts cited in the table, and they do not predict where gold goes next.
Source: Kitco, FXEmpire. Illustrative scenarios only. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Opinion is split. Marc Chandler of Bannockburn said he was "not convinced the yellow metal has bottomed", in the weekly Kitco survey. Retail voters in the same survey were far more upbeat.
Source: Kitco, 6 Nov 2026. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Longer-term outlook
Banks have been cutting targets. Goldman Sachs lowered its end-2026 forecast to $4,150 from $4,650, and its end-2027 forecast to $4,800 from $5,400, reported Finimize. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Official demand has stayed strong. Central banks bought 321 tonnes in Q3 2026, up 42% on a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. Global gold ETF holdings reached a record 4,256 tonnes in September, the WGC ETF report shows. Our guide to gold ETFs explains how these funds work.
Source: ChartRow, calendar years 2021 to 2025 and 2026 year to date, based on GLD closing prices, before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
For the basics of the metal, see a brief introduction to gold. Admirals offers CFDs on commodities, including the Gold (100 oz) vs US Dollar CFD. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the spot gold price today?
Spot gold traded at about $4,111.53 per ounce at 12:20 GMT on 9 November 2026, up 1.01%.
What moved gold last week?
A weaker dollar after the midterms helped gold. Lower oil prices and short covering added to the rebound.
Why does CPI move gold?
Inflation data shape Fed rate expectations. Higher rates can raise the cost of holding gold, which pays out nothing.
Is gold bullish or bearish this week?
Views are split. In the Kitco survey, Wall Street leaned bearish while retail voters leaned clearly bullish.
Which price levels are analysts watching?
Analysts watch support at $4,000 and $3,970, with resistance around $4,200 and $4,225 this week.
How will the Fed affect gold?
Markets price a likely rate hike by year-end. Comments from Fed speakers this week could shift those odds.
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Sources
- Gold, Trading Economics, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold drops but stays on track for best week in over two months, Kitco, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Wall Street split on gold following Dems' midterm rout, Kitco, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold price holds critical $4,000 support, Kitco, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold extends rebound above $4,100 as dollar and yields decline, Energy Connects, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Commodities weekly, Saxo, accessed 9 November 2026.
- US October non-farm payrolls +165K vs +65K expected, investingLive, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold weekly forecast, FXEmpire, accessed 9 November 2026.
- FOMC statement, 28 October 2026, Federal Reserve, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Week ahead, 9 to 13 November, Saxo, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Economic calendar, 9 to 13 November 2026, ThriveInMarkets, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Preview of US October CPI, Continuum Economics, accessed 9 November 2026.
- FOMC meeting December 2026, FedRateCalc, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Goldman Sachs turns down its gold targets, Finimize, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold Demand Trends Q3 2026, central banks, World Gold Council, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold ETF flows, September 2026, World Gold Council, accessed 9 November 2026.
- Gold returns by year, ChartRow, accessed 9 November 2026.
