Fed Williams Speech Today: What to Know After the September Rate Hike
The Fed Williams speech today comes eight days after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%. New York Fed President John Williams is among several Fed officials due to speak on Thursday, 24 September 2026.
The short version is simple. The Fed hiked on 16 September, and most officials expect one more move this year. On 23 September, markets priced about a 73% probability of another hike at the October 2026 FOMC meeting. Williams has not said publicly whether he backs that move.
This article sets out what Williams has said recently and the data points markets may monitor next. The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Williams Speech at a Glance
Who Is John Williams?
John Williams has led the New York Fed since June 2018. Before that, he ran the San Francisco Fed for seven years. His full title is long enough to need its own spread.
He is also vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and he votes at every meeting. Markets often see him as close to the centre of the committee. His speeches still reflect his own views.
That is why traders tend to read any John Williams Fed rate hike comment as a useful clue. A single speech still represents one voice out of 12 voters.
Fed Rate Decision September 2026: The Starting Point
On 16 September, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 0.25 percentage points. It was the first hike since July 2023.
The statement said "inflation remains elevated". It added that the move would support a timelier return to the 2% goal.
The vote also marked a change of mood. In July, the committee held rates by 9-3, with three officials voting for a hike.
For the full breakdown, read our analysis of how the Fed raised interest rates to 3.75%-4.00%.
Fed Dot Plot September 2026: What Officials Pencilled In
Eighteen officials submitted projections. Chair Kevin Warsh again chose to skip his own dot.
The median projection points to one more hike in 2026. The St. Louis Fed notes that these projections are neither a committee plan nor a binding decision.
The dot plot is basically a group chat for interest rates. Each member posts a guess and edits it three months later.
Source: Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026. Projections are not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 2026 PCE inflation projection now stands at 3.7%, up from 2.7% in March. A full-point jump in six months explains much of the shift in tone.
New York Fed Williams Inflation Outlook: How His View Shifted
Williams moved from calm to cautious over the summer. His comments make most sense when read in order.
On 2 September, he said it was unclear whether current policy would bring inflation back to target within a year or two. He added that further action might be needed.
That leaves one open question for today. Will he echo colleagues who want more hikes, or keep his data-dependent line?
Williams at the Treasury Market Conference: Ample Reserves
On Tuesday, 22 September, Williams spoke at the 2026 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. He said "we must ensure that policy tools are fit for purpose" as markets evolve.
The Fed runs what is called an ample reserves system. Banks hold enough reserves for the Fed to steer rates mainly through the interest it pays on them.
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The September statement confirms that the Fed is continuing its ample reserves policy.
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Interest on reserve balances now stands at 3.90%.
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Williams linked the design of policy tools to changes in market structure.
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The New York Fed summary of the speech does not cover the rate outlook.
Fedspeak Today: Who Else Is Speaking
Several Fed officials speak on Thursday. That is a busy diary, even for people who read central-bank speeches for fun.
The tone from colleagues has been firm. On 23 September, Governor Michael Barr said "further policy adjustments are likely to be needed".
Fed Williams, Hammack Speech Line-Up
Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed votes on the FOMC this year. She dissented in July in favour of a hike. In August, she said "now is the time to act".
Comparing the two speeches may show how wide the range of views is among this year's voters.
FOMC October 2026 Rate Hike Odds
CME FedWatch turns 30-day fed funds futures prices into probabilities for each meeting. The CME FedWatch reading moved sharply in September.
These are market-implied probabilities. They can change quickly with new data and are not forecasts.
The jump on 23 September followed Barr's remarks and a strong S&P Global PMI report. The 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 13 basis points to 4.9% that day.
The Fed rate hike 2026 debate now centres on timing. The October meeting ends on 28 October, six days before the US midterm elections. The December meeting on 8-9 December brings fresh projections.
Markets Ahead of the Speech
Bond markets were on edge early on Thursday. The US 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level since 2007 overnight. Japan's 10-year yield rose to 3.075%, a level last seen in August 1996.
Source: Reuters, Asian trading on 24 September 2026. Levels change constantly. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Ray Attrill of National Australia Bank said equities were showing signs of strain under rising bond yields. He added that the dollar still tended to attract safe-haven demand in that kind of risk-off setting.
Trade headlines matter too. Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Washington, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the two sides had agreed to extend their trade truce.
The Data Backdrop
Thursday's US releases include weekly jobless claims, forecast at 201,000, and August new home sales, forecast at 615,000.
How Williams' Tone Could Feed Into Markets
The main channel runs through rate expectations. A change in October hike odds tends to show up first in the 2-year Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to Fed policy.
Is Williams Hawkish or Dovish? Four Illustrative Scenarios
The table below is illustrative. It describes how markets have often interpreted similar signals in the past, and actual reactions can differ.
These relationships are unstable. Oil prices and geopolitical news can push the same assets in the opposite direction.
Price reactions around past Fed events vary widely, and a handful of sessions says little about the next one.
What Traders Often Monitor Around Fed Speeches
Central-bank speeches can move prices within seconds. Spreads may widen and liquidity may thin, especially in leveraged products such as CFDs.
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Some traders review position size and margin levels before scheduled speeches.
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Stop-loss orders can help manage risk, although they may be filled at a worse price during gaps or fast moves.
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Some traders wait for the full text and the Q&A before forming a view, since early headlines can lack context.
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Many market participants compare the tone of a speech with the reaction in the 2-year Treasury yield.
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Our Forex Calendar lists scheduled speeches and data releases with their times.
Some traders use offsetting positions to manage exposure during Fed weeks. These positions carry their own costs and risks.
The risk management section of our education hub covers these ideas in more depth. Our guide on how to trade the Fed rate decision explains how the statement and press conference are often approached.
Illustrative Example: How a 50-Pip Move Can Cut Both Ways
The example uses a 0.1-lot EUR/USD position, where one pip is worth about $1. It is for illustrative purposes only.
Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. You can estimate pip value and margin with our trading calculator, and our fees and charges page lists the costs that apply.
Trading Around Fed Speeches: Pros and Cons
Watching the Reaction on a Demo Account
A demo account uses virtual funds, so you can see how prices behave around a speech. Demo results may differ from live trading, where execution and emotions play a bigger part.
On MetaTrader 5, you can follow CFDs on forex and commodities in real time.
Key Dates to Watch
Our Forex Calendar shows each release in your local time zone. For more market news, visit our Trading News blog.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time is the Fed Williams speech today?
The New York Fed events calendar lists the confirmed time. Our Forex Calendar shows it in your local time.
Who is John Williams?
He is President of the New York Fed and vice chair of the FOMC, with a permanent vote on rates.
What happened at the September 2026 Fed meeting?
The FOMC raised rates by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%-4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since July 2023.
What does the September 2026 dot plot show?
Sixteen of 18 officials expect at least one more hike this year. Four of them pencil in two.
What are the FOMC October 2026 rate hike odds?
CME FedWatch implied about a 73% chance on 23 September. These probabilities can change quickly with new data.
Will Williams support another rate hike?
He has not said so publicly. He voted for the September hike after taking a wait-and-see stance.
What did Williams say at the Treasury Market Conference?
He discussed how the Fed controls short-term rates under its ample reserves system and left the rate outlook aside.
How can Fed speeches affect EUR/USD?
Shifts in US rate expectations can move the dollar. The size and direction of any reaction are uncertain.
Is trading around Fed speeches risky?
Yes. Prices can gap past stop levels, and leveraged CFD positions can lose money rapidly.
Sources
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Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 September 2026.
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New York Fed Teller Window, Williams at the 2026 Treasury Market Conference.
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Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Barr says further hikes likely needed.
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Reuters via Business Standard, markets on 24 September 2026.
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Reuters via Yahoo Finance, Williams on inflation, 25 June 2026.
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Trading Economics, Michigan consumer sentiment, September 2026.
All sources were accessed on 24 September 2026.
