Industrial PMIs give the euro a break

April 01, 2021 14:30

The euro is the second most traded currency in the world, after the US dollar, and the announcement of economic data from leading nations tend to have a significant impact on their price.

This morning, the results of industrial PMIs across the eurozone were released, being positive and slightly higher than expected across the board. 

In all cases, the index exceeds 50, which indicates that the industrial sector is expanding. In addition, their final results are higher than those achieved in the previous reading and equal to or slightly higher than market forecasts. Published data includes:

  • Spain industrial PMI 56.9 versus 56 forecast
  • Italy industrial PMI 59.8 versus 59.8 forecast
  • France industrial PMI 59.3 versus 58.8 forecast
  • Germany industrial PMI 66.6 compared to the forecast of 66.6
  • Eurozone industrial PMI 62.5 compared to the forecast of 66.4

This data has given a breather to the euro, whose index has been losing positions since mid-January 2021. In the graph below, it can be clearly seen that the euro has moved within a bearish wedge since then. 

Recently, the price has touched the support of this wedge, which also coincides with the lows recorded in July 2020. The increase in signals in the same direction causes the momentum of the movement to be even greater, as can be seen in the rebound that has occurred this morning when these timid positive data were known.

The next reference level is at the resistance of this wedge and coincides with the 23.6 Fibonacci retracement level, where selling pressure could foreseeably increase.

Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5. EURX daily chart. Data range: from August 19, 2019, to April 1, 2021. Prepared April 1, 2021, at 10:00 am CET. Keep in mind that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Price evolution over the last 5 years:

  • 2020: 9.56%
  • 2019: -1.15%
  • 2018 -5.35%
  • 2017 14.01%
  • 2016: -4.20%

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