Cheesecake Factory Earnings: Q3 2026 Beat, FY2026 Outlook Near $4.1bn

The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) reported record third-quarter revenue of $1,033.4m on 27 October 2026, up 13.9% from $907.2m a year earlier. Adjusted diluted EPS came in at $1.02 and GAAP diluted EPS at $1.19. Comparable sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants rose 15.2%, according to the company's results release filed with the SEC.

The company now assumes FY2026 sales of about $4.09bn, or about $4.1bn, as Investing.com reported from the investor presentation. At the Q2 results in July the figure was about $4.0bn, according to Quartr. Even so, CAKE shares fell about 2.6% in after-hours trading on 27 October, according to Investing.com.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

This article sets out the numbers behind the report. It covers the outlook and the analyst reaction. It also maps the key price levels and the dates that traders often watch next. All market data are as of the morning of 28 October 2026, UK time, before the US cash open at 13:30 UK.

Cheesecake Factory Q3 2026 Earnings at a Glance

The quarter covered the 13 weeks to 29 September 2026. Results came out after the US close on Tuesday 27 October, with the conference call at 2:00 pm Pacific Time. Revenue and adjusted EPS beat both consensus figures shown below.

Source: SEC, Investing.com, StockStory via TradingView, Investing.com (Mizuho). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Consensus figures differ by provider. The beat holds whichever figure is used. Against the Investing.com consensus, adjusted EPS came in about 12% above forecasts. Against the StockStory figure, the gap was about 6.3%.

Why Are Cheesecake Factory Shares Trading Lower After the Beat?

The stock fell even though the company beat estimates. CAKE closed at $108.47 on 27 October, down 1.51% on the day. After the release it traded at $105.63, a further 2.62% lower, according to the Investing.com slides summary.

The company gave its reasons for the quarter. It did not explain the share move. Analysts and reporters have pointed to several possible factors.

• The shares had gained about 115% in 2026 after a mixed five-year record shown below, so a large beat may have been expected.
• The Q4 outlook models the final three weeks of the year with about 3% pricing and flat traffic, per the call transcript.
• North Italia comparable sales fell 3% in the quarter.
• Management gave Q4 and FY2027 assumptions without specific comparable sales or earnings figures, as the transcript shows.
• Dilution from the in-the-money 2030 convertible notes is built into the share count.
• UBS put the valuation at about 15 times next-twelve-months EBITDA, against a five-year average of 9 times, per Investing.com.

Source: Investing.com, StockStory via TradingView, StockAnalysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

A pre-market price for 28 October could not be verified independently at the time of writing. The first regular-hours reaction comes at the US open, 09:30 ET or 13:30 UK.

Q3 2026 Results in Detail

The press release shows broad gains in profit. Income from operations roughly doubled from a weak base a year earlier. Margins improved on every main cost line.

Cheesecake Factory Q3 Revenue and Earnings

Source: SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, GuruFocus via Investing.com. Prior-year adjusted EBITDA is derived from the reported 38% growth. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

GAAP EPS sits above adjusted EPS this quarter. The reason is a $12.9m pre-tax gain linked to Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) acquisition items. Adjusted net income was $52.3m, against GAAP net income of $61.3m.

Cost Lines and Margins

Lower cost ratios did much of the work. Food costs and labour fell as a share of sales. Other operating costs fell too. The Cheesecake Factory restaurant-level margin reached 18.7%, up 240 basis points.

Source: GuruFocus via Investing.com, Investing.com call transcript. Prior-year margin is derived from the reported 240 bp gain. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

About $4m of Q3 other operating costs were discretionary bonuses for frontline managers, as CFO Matt Clark noted in the investor update. The company described this as reinvestment in its operating teams.

Cheesecake Factory Comparable Sales: Traffic Leads the 15.2% Gain

Traffic drove most of the growth. Guest counts rose 9.5%, which outpaced the Black Box Casual Dining Index by 940 basis points, according to the Investing.com call summary. President David Gordon said on the call that sales growth was "driven predominantly by outstanding traffic growth of 9.5%".

Source: GuruFocus via Investing.com. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Management linked the gains to menu changes and the Cheesecake Rewards app. Social media engagement played a part too. "We are especially encouraged by the traction we are seeing with our younger guests," Chairman and CEO David Overton said on the earnings call.

The annualised average unit volume reached about $13.9m, or roughly $267,700 a week. The company called it a record for its seasonally slowest quarter, per the slides summary.

Brand-by-Brand Performance

The flagship brand led the way. The smaller concepts gave a mixed picture.

Source: GuruFocus via Investing.com, Investing.com. Flower Child comps come from the call. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

North Italia is the weak spot. The company plans a menu refresh and more media spend for the brand. Flower Child posted two-year comps growth of 18%.

FY2026 Revenue Outlook: How the Guidance Changed

The press release itself contains the Q3 numbers and the opening plan. It does not state a full-year revenue figure. On the call, CFO Matt Clark said the company "will not be providing specific comparable sales and earnings guidance". He gave Q4 and FY2027 assumptions.

The FY2026 figure comes from the investor presentation. The company is targeting consolidated sales of about $4.09bn, with a net income margin of about 5.75%, as summarised by Investing.com. Many reports round this to about $4.1bn.

The arithmetic checks out. YTD revenue of $3,041.9m plus the Q4 range of $1.04bn to $1.05bn gives $4.08bn to $4.09bn.

Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Cheesecake Factory Q4 Guidance

The fourth quarter holds the busiest dining weeks of the year, so the dessert counters face their hardest test in December. Management modelled those last three weeks with flat traffic because restaurants run close to capacity.

Source: Investing.com call transcript. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Cheesecake Factory 2027 Revenue Target

"We are targeting total revenue of approximately $4.425 billion for fiscal 2027," Matt Clark said on the earnings call. That would be about 8% above the FY2026 sales assumption.

Source: Investing.com call transcript, Gloom transcript. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The beat was large, yet the outlook assumes traffic flattens at peak weeks. That gap between a record quarter and a cautious holiday model may explain much of the after-hours selling.

Cheesecake Factory New Restaurants 2026 and Unit Growth

The company opened six restaurants in Q3. It added three more after quarter-end. These were two Flower Child units and one FRC unit. It owned 383 restaurants at the time of the release, plus 35 licensed sites abroad, according to the 8-K exhibit.

Source: SEC, GuruFocus via Investing.com. The 2027 brand ranges are approximate and need not add up to the total. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

By 27 October the company had opened 16 restaurants in 2026, per the slides summary.

Long-Term Runway

The presentation sets out a long runway. The company sees room for many more units in each brand.

Source: Investing.com slides summary. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Long-term targets call for comparable sales growth of 1% to 2% a year. Total revenue growth of 7% to 8% a year is the stated goal. These are company targets and may change.

Balance Sheet and Dividend

The company reported available liquidity of $585.3m at quarter-end. The revolving credit facility was undrawn at quarter-end.

Source: SEC Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1.

The notes carry an initial conversion price of about $70.73, as set out when they were priced in February 2025. With the stock above that level, the dilution sits in the company's share count guidance.

The $0.30 quarterly dividend equals $1.20 a year. At the 27 October close, that is a yield of about 1.1% before taxes and costs, which may vary. Dividends are set by the board and can change.

Cheesecake Factory Stock Valuation and Market Data

Source: StockAnalysis statistics, Investing.com, Investing.com slides summary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

High short interest can make moves larger in both directions. Mizuho noted that the stock trades at 13.5 times its 2027 estimated EBITDA, per Investing.com.

Cheesecake Factory Price Target After Earnings: Analyst Views

Mizuho kept its Neutral rating and $110 price target after the print. It raised its EPS estimates to $4.67 for 2026 and $5.20 for 2027, according to Investing.com. Other targets below were set before the results.

Source: Investing.com, Investing.com (UBS), MarketBeat. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The pre-print consensus was Hold. Nineteen analysts had a mean target of $105.93, below the share price at the time, per Investing.com and StockAnalysis. More target changes may follow in the days after the report.

Cheesecake Factory 5 Year Stock Performance

The 2026 rally stands out against a mixed five-year record. The stock fell 19% in 2022 and gained modestly in 2021 and 2025. The 2026 move began from a year-end 2025 close of $50.48 and lifted the shares about 115% to $108.47 by 27 October.

Source: ChartRow, StatMuse Money. Calendar years, nominal closes. Total returns include dividends and are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Insider selling has drawn attention during the rally. Insiders sold about $22.3m of stock in the 90 days to 23 October, according to MarketBeat.

Cheesecake Factory Technical Analysis

The long-term uptrend remains in place, with price well above the 200-day average. In the short term the stock has pulled back from its mid-October high. It now trades near its 50-day average.

Source: StockAnalysis price history, StockAnalysis statistics, MarketBeat. Some providers show the 52-week high as $118.64. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

A gap lower at the open could test the $104 to $105 band. A move back above $110 could bring the October highs into view. These levels are illustrative and markets can move through them quickly.

Recent Price Action

The stock fell for three sessions from 21 to 23 October before the print. On 23 October it closed at $108.37, down 3.62%, on volume of about 1.8m shares, per StockAnalysis.

Macro Backdrop: The Fed and the Consumer

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. Admirals covered that decision in its analysis of the Fed rate rise. Higher rates can weigh on discretionary spending, including meals out.

The October FOMC meeting ends today, 28 October, with the statement due at 14:00 ET, or 18:00 UK, according to FedRateCalc. The decision could move rate-sensitive small caps. Consumer stocks such as CAKE can also react to rate news.

How Cheesecake Factory Compares With Casual Dining Peers

The company's own slides compare its unit volumes with other casual dining brands. According to the company's investor slides, the flagship brand leads on average unit volume and off-premise sales.

Source: Investing.com slides summary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Off-premise sales made up 21% of revenue in Q3. Average weekly off-premise sales were about $50,000 in FY2025, against $26,300 at Olive Garden, owned by Darden, per the slides summary. Traders often compare CAKE with Darden and Brinker charts after sector news.

Illustrative Scenarios for CAKE Stock

The table shows how the stock could react to different outcomes. These scenarios are illustrative. They are not predictions.

Source: StockAnalysis, Investing.com (UBS). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Pros and Cons of the Q3 Report

Source: SEC, Investing.com.

Key Risks to Watch

• Social media buzz may fade, and traffic could slow with it.
• Restaurants run near capacity at peak times, which limits growth in busy weeks.
• North Italia margins have fallen and may keep falling.
• Labour inflation and manager bonuses could squeeze margins.
• Convertible note dilution lowers earnings per share.
• Higher US rates could weigh on spending on meals out.
• An ambitious opening plan brings execution risk.
• Heavy short interest can add to volatility.

UBS, which rates the stock Sell, has said it worries that momentum may fade into 2027, per Investing.com.

Key Dates for Traders

Source: FedRateCalc (FOMC), FedRateCalc (November calendar), SEC. US clocks go back on 1 November, so the UK gap changes from four hours to five. Dates are subject to change.

The Admirals economic calendar lists the macro releases. The earnings calendar for this week covers other results due. The date of the Q4 FY2026 report has not yet been announced.

How to Trade Cheesecake Factory Earnings: What Traders Often Watch

Earnings moves can be sharp. Traders often follow a few points in the days after a report.

• Many traders watch the first regular-hours session for a hold or a break of support.
• Some compare volume on the open with recent daily averages.
• Others track new analyst notes and target changes.
• Short-term traders often use stop-loss orders to manage risk, although a stop may fill at a worse price when shares gap.
• Many size positions so that one trade does not dominate the account.

This week shows that a strong report can still meet selling when a stock has already rallied. Future reactions may differ.

Trading CFDs on CAKE With Admirals

Admirals offers CFDs on shares of US companies. The Cheesecake Factory share CFD (#CAKE) is listed on MetaTrader 5. A CFD lets traders speculate on price moves in both directions, and our guide to short selling explains the downside approach. Losses are possible on both long and short positions.

Our article on what CFD trading is covers the basics. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary

Cheesecake Factory delivered a record quarter, with revenue of $1,033.4m and comps of 15.2%. The FY2026 sales assumption moved to about $4.09bn from about $4.0bn. Shares still slipped after hours, and reports pointed to a cautious Q4 model and a high valuation. Analyst views remain split, from a $128 Buy target to an $80 Sell target.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did Cheesecake Factory report for Q3 2026?

Revenue reached a record $1,033.4m and adjusted EPS was $1.02. Comparable sales at the flagship brand rose 15.2%.

Did Cheesecake Factory raise its FY2026 revenue guidance?

The investor presentation assumes FY2026 sales of about $4.09bn, up from about $4.0bn in July, often rounded to $4.1bn.

Why did Cheesecake Factory stock fall after earnings?

Reports point to high expectations after a strong rally and a cautious Q4 traffic model. North Italia was also weak.

What is the Cheesecake Factory Q4 2026 revenue guidance?

The company expects Q4 revenue of $1.04bn to $1.05bn, with an adjusted net income margin of about 5.8%.

How many new restaurants will Cheesecake Factory open in 2026?

The company plans as many as 26 openings in 2026 and had opened 16 by 27 October 2026.

What is the Cheesecake Factory dividend?

The board declared $0.30 per share, payable on 24 November 2026 to holders of record on 10 November.

What is the analyst price target for CAKE stock?

Targets range from $80 at UBS to $128 at Citi, and the pre-results mean target was about $105.93.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

Sources

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