Long-Term Wave Analysis October 7, 2013 2013.10.10

October 10, 2013 11:16

 Long-Term Wave Analysis for 7th October 2013

A bearish contracting triangle has been forming on the EURUSD ever since 2008. There are 2 main scenarios for the EURUSD:

1) The triangle could already be completed, but in that case price may not go higher than this year’s high of 1.3710 (red horizontal). This is offered as an alternative (Alt) in the weekly chart (light blue ABC)

2) The triangle has not been completed. Any break of that high indicates that the triangle is still on its way and wave E of wave B still needs to be completed (is presented as the main scenario in the screenshots, dark blue ABC)

The top of wave C at 1.49 is the invalidation level for the bearish triangle.

Monthly chart EURUSD:


The weekly chart is showing a potential double combination. According to time analysis on the weekly and monthly chart, wave Y of Y of E could most likely end in January/February 2014.

According to Fibonacci analysis the 78.6% Fib of Wave C and the 100% of Wave Y (black letters) at 1.44 could be a likely ending spot for Wave E (green) of Wave B (blue).

Weekly chart EURUSD:

Wave C (red letters) is equal to wave A at 1.3750. Five waves are unfolding on a lower time frame which are either wave red C or part of a combination purple A of red C.

Daily chart EURUSD:

The GBPUSD is in a bearish contracting triangle and is making potential wave E (black letters) of wave B (green). The triangle is invalidated upon the break of the top of wave (black) at 1.6738.

Monthly chart GBPUSD:


The 78.6% Fib retracement of wave C (black letters) and previous top (red horizontal) is a major resistance level.

Weekly chart GBPUSD:


GBPUSD is most likely making an ABC within wave dark red C of weekly chart. Wave C purple is equal to wave A purple at 1.6332 on mid October.

The alternative count for the daily chart is a wave 1-2 (instead of blue a/b) and another wave 1-2 (instead of purple a/b), followed by a wave 3 purple.

Daily chart GBPUSD:

The impulsive move up to 104 this year is most likely a wave 3. Wave 4 of the lesser degree is the main target (1.24.40).

Monthly chart USDJPY:


Price is now in a wave 4 (green letters) and has respected the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio of wave 3. The wave 5 is 61.8% of wave 3 at 109.23 and 100% at 119.39.

Weekly chart USDJPY:


The USDJPY is making a triangle (black letters) which would complete wave 4 (green). The bottom of wave C is the invalidation level at 95.80. If price breaks through that level, then the alternative count is a an ABC formation down to perhaps the 500 Fib of wave 3 (90.4

Daily chart USDJPY:

Good Trading!