US Retail Sales September 2026 Preview: Forecast and Market Impact

The U.S. Census Bureau releases the advance retail sales report for September 2026 on Thursday 15 October at 8:30 ET. That is 12:30 UTC and 13:30 UK time. The consensus calls for a 0.3% rise month on month, after August's strong jump. Sales excluding autos are expected to rise 0.5%, according to the investingLive week-ahead calendar.

August was first reported at +1.2%. The annual benchmark update in late September appears to have trimmed it to about +1.1%, based on FRED data. September's figure lands one day after the CPI report. That timing matters. If prices rise by the 0.6% CPI consensus, a 0.3% nominal gain would point to a small fall in real spending.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

US Retail Sales September 2026: The Key Answers

Here is what traders need before Thursday's release. Every figure below is explained in detail later in the article.

Source: investingLive, TheRightTrader and FRED. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The short version is simple. Markets expect spending to cool after a very strong August. Petrol prices could lift the headline. The retail sales control group may tell a softer story.

EUR/USD is a widely followed currency pair. It can react quickly to a US data surprise, so the chart gives a view of how the dollar has traded into the release.

What Is Retail Sales MoM?

Retail sales MoM is the percentage change in the value of retail and food services sales from one month to the next. The figure is seasonally adjusted. It is also nominal, which means it is measured in dollars and is unadjusted for inflation.

The Census Bureau calls the first estimate the advance retail sales report. It is based on a sample of firms. The bureau revises it in each of the next two monthly reports.

Why the Report Matters

Retail sales is one of the earliest monthly readings on consumer spending. It arrives weeks before the personal consumption data and the GDP report.

• The figure shows whether households are still spending after the Fed's September hike.
• It feeds directly into growth trackers such as the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model.
• It shapes expectations for the next Fed decision on 28 October.
• It can move the dollar and Treasury yields within seconds.

Headline Figure and Core Measures

Each report contains several measures. Traders tend to look past the headline to the core measures.

Source: AP via Local10 and Trading Economics.

The calendar's "core" figure usually refers to sales excluding autos. The control group is a separate line. investingLive flagged that difference in its week-ahead note.

When Is the US Retail Sales Report?

The September report is out on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Some summaries list the time as 13:30 UTC. That is the UK clock time, because the UK is still on British Summer Time. In UTC the release is at 12:30.

Release Time in Major Time Zones

Times converted from 8:30 ET. Source for the release slot: TheRightTrader.

Next Retail Sales Release Dates

Source: TheRightTrader. Dates can change. The UK moves to GMT on 25 October and the US moves to standard time on 1 November, so 8:30 ET is again 13:30 UK time on both later dates.

The Admirals economic calendar lists the release together with the forecast and the previous value.

US Retail Sales Forecast for September 2026

The consensus points to a slowdown. The forecasts checked for this preview show modest growth in the headline.

Source: investingLive, FXStreet and Bank of America Institute. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Card data describes past spending, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

A consensus for the control group was not available in the calendars checked for this preview. The control group could slow more than the headline in September. Petrol stations added a lot to August, and record September petrol prices could support the headline more than the core measures.

What Bank of America Card Data Shows

Bank of America card spending per household rose 6.2% year on year in September. Excluding petrol, the rise was 5.1%. The Bank of America Institute Consumer Checkpoint described month-on-month growth as more muted, especially without petrol.

Card data is an early signal. It covers one bank's customers, and it can differ from the official Census figures.

August Recap: Why Did Retail Sales Jump?

August's first print showed sales up 1.2% to $773.9 billion. That was the largest gain in five months, according to Trading Economics. It followed a revised 0.5% fall in July, according to Voz, citing the Census Bureau.

The figure beat expectations by a wide margin. FactSet had pencilled in +0.7%, according to the Associated Press. The Bloomberg survey median was +0.8%, as Advisor Perspectives reported.

August 2026 Headline Figures

Source: Sharecast, Voz and Trading Economics. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

August Sales by Category

Most major categories rose in August. Building materials and garden equipment fell 0.2%, and department store sales fell 0.8%, according to Sharecast.

Source: Trading Economics, based on Census Bureau data. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The Drivers Behind August

Several one-off factors lifted August. Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics called the swing in online sales "seasonal noise", linked to the timing of Amazon's Prime Day, as reported by AP.

• Online sales bounced back after a sharp fall in July.
• Higher pump prices lifted receipts at petrol stations.
• Discretionary categories such as food services and electronics also posted solid gains.
• Some retailers used tariff refunds to cut prices on big-ticket goods.

Petrol station sales were 21% higher than a year earlier, Voz noted. Pearce also warned of a "deeper bifurcation of the consumer returning in the coming months", in comments quoted by AP.

The Retail Sales Revision: Is the Prior 1.2% or 1.1%?

The Census Bureau published its annual revision in late September. The revised series on FRED shows July at $729,538 million and August at $737,763 million. That works out to about +1.1% for August and about −0.5% for July.

Source: FRED, Advance Retail Sales (RSAFS), Voz and investingLive. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The revised dollar levels on FRED are lower than those in the original press release. The annual update rebased the series. For this reason, levels from the two vintages should be kept apart.

Revisions to August can matter as much as the September number itself. A large upward revision with a soft September could still read as solid. A downward revision with a weak September would point to a faster slowdown.

The Backdrop: Fed Hikes and a Cooling Economy

The September report arrives in an unusual macro mix. Inflation is rising again. The Fed has started to hike. The labour market is cooling.

Key Macro Data at a Glance

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The Fed raised the fed funds rate to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, its first hike since July 2023, according to investingLive. The minutes of the September meeting showed most officials expect another hike by the end of the year, as BabyPips summarised.

Record Petrol Prices in September

AAA said the national average for regular petrol averaged $4.33 a gallon in September. That was 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83, set in 2023, according to AAA.

Higher fuel prices work in two directions. They lift nominal sales at petrol stations. They also squeeze the budget that households have left for other goods.

A Cooling Labour Market

Payrolls rose just 29,000 in September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months was 45,000. Average hourly earnings edged up 0.1% in the month.

Forecasters had expected about +90,000, according to investingLive. Slower hiring and weak wage growth can weigh on spending power over time.

Consumer Sentiment Near Record Lows

The University of Michigan's preliminary October index fell to 46.3, below the 47.8 expected, as investingLive reported. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Five-year expectations rose to 3.5%. Only May's reading was lower in the survey's history, according to FXStreet.

Sentiment and spending often diverge. Households can say they feel worse while still spending. Advisor Perspectives called the October reading a five-month low.

The K-Shaped Consumer

Spending has split by income. Higher-income households benefit from rising share prices. Lower-income households face weaker income gains and steep prices. Mark Mathews of the NRF has noted a softening of these K-shaped spending trends in recent months, AP reported in its August coverage.

Retail Sales and CPI: Why Real Spending Matters

The CPI report for September comes out on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30 ET. The consensus is +0.6% m/m for the headline and 3.6% y/y. Core CPI is seen at +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, according to investingLive.

Retail sales are nominal. If prices rise 0.6% and sales rise 0.3%, the volume of goods bought falls by about 0.3%. That is a rough guide. Retail prices and the CPI basket differ.

Nominal Versus Real Retail Sales: Illustrative Maths

Illustrative calculation using the CPI consensus from investingLive. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The Admirals US CPI preview for September 2026 covers the inflation side of the week in more depth.

A 0.3% rise in nominal retail sales in a month when prices rise 0.6% would mean households bought fewer goods in volume terms. The CPI print may therefore change how the market reads Thursday's number.

The Rest of the Week: Economic Calendar This Week

Thursday's 8:30 ET slot is crowded, with four US reports landing in the same minute. That can make the first price move noisy.

Source: investingLive and FXStreet. FXStreet lists the Warsh remarks at 15:30 GMT, while investingLive shows 23:30 ET. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

On 28 October the UK is on GMT while the US is still on daylight time. That is why the FOMC time in the UK is 18:00.

Markets Before the Release

US shares sit near records while the 10-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2002, according to FXStreet. That mix makes the market sensitive to any sign of a hotter or weaker economy.

Market Snapshot

Source: AP via La Nación, Reuters via The Senior, FXStreet and OilPrice.com. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Treasury Yields

The 10-year yield closed at 5.297% on 30 September, above its 2007 peak, according to 24/7 Wall St. The same report put the MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 7.3%, the highest since November 2023.

The chart shows the 10-year T-note CFD. Note that bond prices move in the opposite direction to yields. A strong retail sales figure has often pushed yields higher, which shows up as a lower T-note price.

Fed Rate Hike Odds

Futures priced about 20% odds of an October hike and about 70% odds of a hike by 9 December, as of 9 October, according to FXStreet.

Source: FXStreet. Market pricing changes daily. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Fed Governor Waller said more hikes are needed. He added that they do not have to come at back-to-back meetings. St. Louis Fed President Musalem said rates should rise over the next six to nine months. Both remarks were reported by FXStreet.

The Admirals guide on how to trade a Fed rate decision explains how these meetings tend to move markets.

Possible Scenarios for 15 October

The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe how markets have often reacted to similar surprises. Actual reactions may differ, and several reports are released at the same moment.

Scenario Overview

Illustrative scenarios built on the consensus from investingLive and market levels from FXStreet. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Scenario 1: In Line With Consensus

A headline close to +0.3% would confirm a slowdown after August. Petrol stations could account for much of the gain. The market impact could be modest, with focus moving to the PPI figures released at the same time.

Scenario 2: A Hot Print

A headline at +0.6% or more, with a firm control group, could revive talk of an October hike. The 2-year yield could move back towards its 5 October level of 4.84%. The dollar index could test 102.50. Equity indices near records could come under pressure from higher yields.

Scenario 3: A Weak Print

A flat or negative headline, or a falling control group, would fit the weak jobs report. Yields could ease and the dollar could slip towards 101.75. The effect on shares may be mixed. Lower yields can support valuations, while weaker spending can weigh on retailers.

Scenario 4: Strong Headline, Weak Core

A headline lifted only by petrol stations, with a soft control group, has often been read as a weaker report. In that case, the market may focus on the squeeze on real incomes.

How the Dollar and EUR/USD Could React

The dollar index stalled below the 102.50 area in the week before the release. FXStreet listed 102.00 and 101.75 as nearby support levels, with 103.00 as the next round level above 102.50.

Dollar Index and EUR/USD Levels

Source: FXStreet, 9 October 2026, 19:10 GMT. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The euro makes up 57.6% of the dollar index, according to FXStreet. That is why EUR/USD and the dollar index tend to move in opposite directions. The Admirals guide to trading the US dollar index explains the basket in more detail.

Admirals offers CFDs on Forex, including major pairs such as EUR/USD.

How S&P 500 CFDs Could React

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.95 on 6 October, according to Reuters via The Senior. It closed at 7,811.54 on 9 October, up 14.1% for the year, per AP via La Nación. The five-year table below shows how uneven the yearly price changes have been.

S&P 500 Reference Levels

Source: AP via La Nación and Reuters via The Senior. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Retail sales can affect shares in two ways. Strong spending supports earnings expectations. It can also push yields higher, which weighs on valuations. Admirals offers CFDs on indices, including CFDs on major US indices.

Five-Year Picture: Retail Sales and the S&P 500

The table below puts this year's data into a longer context. It shows full-year growth in retail and food services sales and the S&P 500 price change for the last five full calendar years.

Source: Scripps News (2021), SCMR (2022), Calculated Risk (2023), FXStreet (2024), Retail Insight Network (2025), ChartRow (SPY) and AP via La Nación (2026 index change). Price changes exclude dividends and are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The S&P 500 fell 19.5% in 2022 while retail sales still grew 9.2%. Strong spending and strong share prices do not always move together. Interest rates often matter as much as demand.

Oil Prices and Gold

Fuel is the main swing factor for the September headline. Brent traded near $106.70 at about 13:15 UTC on 12 October, according to the OilPrice.com futures page. Energy costs have risen amid turmoil around the Strait of Hormuz, as Voz reported.

Higher oil prices can feed into petrol prices within weeks. That lifts nominal retail sales and can also raise inflation expectations.

Gold has been sensitive to the Fed outlook. The Admirals CPI preview also looks at gold ahead of the inflation data. A hot retail sales print that lifts yields has often weighed on gold. A weak print has tended to support it. Admirals offers CFDs on commodities such as gold and oil.

Longer-Term Outlook for US Consumer Spending

Forecasts for the rest of 2026 point to slower growth from a high base.

Source: Talk Business, Trading Economics and investingLive. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Tailwinds and Headwinds for Spending

Source: AP, BLS, 24/7 Wall St, Bank of America Institute, Trading Economics and investingLive.

How to Trade Retail Sales: What Traders Often Watch

This section describes common practices. It is educational and does not constitute a recommendation to trade.

Before the Release

• Traders often check the consensus and the previous value on an economic calendar.
• Many compare the headline forecast with the control group and ex-autos forecasts.
• Some note how the market reacted to CPI the day before.
• Others mark recent highs and lows on the instruments they follow.

At 8:30 ET

Spreads can widen sharply around the release. Prices can gap, and orders may be filled at a different level from the one requested.

• Many traders wait for the first minutes to pass before acting.
• Some check the control group and revisions before reading the headline.
• Others watch whether PPI and retail sales point in the same direction.

Pros and Cons of Trading the Release

Summary of common market behaviour around high-impact data releases.

Any retail sales news trading approach carries a high risk of loss. Leverage magnifies both gains and losses. The Admirals article on NFP trading covers similar ideas for a related US release.

Before trading with real money, some traders practise on an Admirals demo account. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading. The MetaTrader 5 platform offers charts and an economic calendar in one place.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Key Risks Around the Release

• Revisions to August could outweigh the September surprise.
• Fresh disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil and petrol prices higher.
• A hot CPI print with weak retail sales could sharpen fears of stagflation.
• Fed Chair Warsh's remarks on 15 October could shift rate expectations.
• The advance estimate carries a margin of error of a few tenths of a point.
• Thin liquidity around the release can amplify price swings.

Conclusion

The September retail sales report is expected to show a slowdown to +0.3% after August's strong first print of +1.2%. Petrol prices are likely to support the headline. The control group and the CPI print a day earlier may matter more for the market reading.

The backdrop is complex. The Fed has started to hike and the labour market is cooling. Share prices are near records while the 10-year yield recently reached its highest level since 2002. Both a hot and a weak figure could move the dollar and Treasury yields. Index CFDs may react as well. The direction of any move remains uncertain.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is retail sales released on 15 October 2026?

The US retail sales report is released at 8:30 ET, which is 12:30 UTC and 13:30 UK time.

What is the retail sales forecast for September 2026?

The consensus expects a 0.3% monthly rise in the headline and a 0.5% rise in sales excluding autos.

What was the previous retail sales figure?

August sales first rose 1.2%. The annual revision later trimmed that gain to about 1.1%, based on FRED data.

What is the retail sales control group?

It leaves out car dealers and petrol stations. Building materials and restaurants are also left out. It feeds GDP estimates.

Why does CPI matter for retail sales?

Retail sales are nominal. If prices rise faster than sales, the volume of goods bought is likely to fall.

How do retail sales affect the dollar?

A strong report has often lifted yields and the dollar. A weak report has often had the opposite effect.

When is the next retail sales report?

The October 2026 report is scheduled for Tuesday 17 November at 8:30 ET, according to TheRightTrader.

Is the retail sales figure adjusted for inflation?

The headline figure is seasonally adjusted. It is unadjusted for inflation, so higher prices can lift it.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

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