US Existing Home Sales September 2026: Forecast and Mortgage Rate Risks
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes US existing home sales for September on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 10:00 ET (15:00 UK time). The existing home sales consensus is 3.96 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). August came in at 3.98 million, so markets expect a small dip of about 0.5%. Source: Trading Economics.
Why only a small dip? September closings mostly reflect contracts signed in July and August. Back then the 30-year mortgage rate held near 6.65% to 6.70%. The bigger risk sits in October and November data. The Freddie Mac 30-year rate climbed to 7.40% on 8 October, the highest since 2023, according to Trading Economics.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Existing Home Sales September 2026: The Key Numbers at a Glance
- What the August Report Showed
- Existing Home Sales History: The Recent Trend
- Existing Home Sales vs Mortgage Rates
- Forward Indicators: Pending Home Sales and Other Signals
- Existing Home Sales vs New Home Sales
- The Macro Backdrop for the US Housing Market
- Existing Home Sales Forecast: Scenarios for 13 October
- How Markets Have Often Reacted to Existing Home Sales
- Housing Market Forecast 2026: What Institutions Expect
- Tailwinds and Headwinds for the US Housing Market
- Economic Calendar This Week and Beyond
- How to Trade Existing Home Sales: What Traders Often Watch
- Key Takeaways
- Frequently Asked Questions
This preview covers the key numbers and the release time. It explains the mortgage rate lag and the forward indicators. It then sets out illustrative scenarios and how markets have often reacted in the past.
Existing Home Sales September 2026: The Key Numbers at a Glance
The table below sums up what traders know before the release. All figures come from NAR and the main data providers.
Source: Trading Economics, NAR, Mortgage News Daily. Data as of 12 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The consensus points to a flat or slightly weaker print. It does not point to a collapse. Even so, August was the first reading below 4 million since June 2025, according to NAR.
The chart below shows the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB). It is a widely followed market gauge of homebuilder stocks.
Existing Home Sales Release Time in Major Time Zones
NAR releases all its statistics at 10:00 Eastern Time, according to its 2026 release schedule. The release falls on Tuesday, the day after the US Columbus Day holiday on Monday 12 October.
Source: NAR release schedule. Time zone conversions by Admirals.
What the August Report Showed
August set the tone for this release. Sales fell for a third month in a row and inventory rose. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun linked the dip to high borrowing costs in the NAR August release. "Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions," he said.
Source: NAR, 10 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Inventory topped 1.6 million for the first time since November 2019. Months' supply reached its highest level in over ten years. The median price posted its 38th straight annual gain. Prices are still rising, though the pace has slowed to below 2%.
Existing Home Sales by Region
Sales fell in three of the four regions in August. Only the West held steady.
Source: NAR, August 2026 report. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The West is the only region where the median price fell from a year earlier. The South is the largest market by volume. A weak South would weigh most on the national figure.
Who Was Buying in August
NAR's monthly survey adds detail on the buyer mix. These shares come from the August Realtors Confidence Index.
- First-time buyers made up 30% of sales, up from 28% a year earlier.
- Cash sales accounted for 27% of transactions.
- Investors and second-home buyers took a 15% share, down from 21% a year earlier.
- Distressed sales stayed at a low 2%.
- The median home spent 31 days on the market.
The cash share matters. About a quarter of buyers do not need a mortgage at all. This partly cushions sales from higher rates.
Existing Home Sales History: The Recent Trend
Sales have drifted lower since late 2025. December 2025 hit 4.35 million, the fastest pace in nearly three years, according to Scripps News (AP). That jump came after mortgage rates eased to near 6% at the end of 2025.
Source: Trading Economics, Scripps News, Mortgage News Daily. Figures may be revised. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
NAR says sales were still up 1.6% year to date through August. So 2026 started stronger than it is ending. Recent months have eroded that early gain.
Existing Home Sales vs Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are one of the main drivers of this series. NAR counts a sale at closing. Closing usually comes 30 to 60 days after a buyer signs the contract. This lag is the key to reading the September number.
Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates This Week and Since August
The Freddie Mac survey shows a calm summer followed by a sharp climb in September. The 30-year rate rose for seven weeks in a row.
Source: MortgageDaily, Freddie Mac PMMS history. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
A year ago the 30-year rate stood at 6.30%. The current 7.40% is 1.10 points higher. The 30 year mortgage rate is now at its highest level since 2023, according to Trading Economics.
The Lag Between Contracts and Closings
Most September closings come from deals agreed in July and August. Rates then sat in a tight band near 6.7%. That is why forecasters expect only a mild dip this month.
The September rate jump hits contracts signed in September and October. Those deals close in October and November. NAR will publish October sales on 12 November, according to its release schedule. That report may be the first to show the full effect of rates above 7%.
What 7.40% Means for a Monthly Payment
Higher rates raise the monthly cost of the same home. The table uses the August median price of $429,100 with a 20% deposit. The loan is therefore $343,280 over 30 years.
Illustrative calculation by Admirals, excluding taxes, insurance and fees. Inputs from NAR and MortgageDaily. For illustrative purposes only.
The jump from 6.67% to 7.40% adds about $169 a month, or roughly 7.7%. For many first-time buyers that gap can decide whether a purchase still fits the budget.
Forward Indicators: Pending Home Sales and Other Signals
Several earlier indicators help gauge the September print and the months after it. Most of them have softened.
Source: Trading Economics (NAR pending sales), MPA (Redfin), Realtor.com via Finviz, TrendForce (MBA), Trading Economics (NAHB). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The small rise in August pending home sales supports a stable September closing figure. The weaker September contract data point to more pressure later in the year.
Supply Is Rising and Buyers Have More Leverage
Listings keep growing while demand cools. Realtor.com counted 1,161,615 active listings in September, up 5.4% from a year earlier. The share of listings with a price cut rose to 20.8%, the highest September reading since 2018.
The median list price fell 1.4% y/y to $419,250. It was the 11th straight annual decline. Chief economist Danielle Hale said buyers are gaining leverage. She added that higher mortgage rates limit how far they can use it. Source: Realtor.com September 2026 report via Finviz.
Keep in mind that Realtor.com tracks asking prices. NAR tracks sold prices. The two series should be compared with care.
Existing Home Sales vs New Home Sales
Existing homes make up more than 90% of US home sales, according to NAR. On the August pace figures in the table below, the share works out at about 85%. New homes are a smaller market, yet they now compete hard on price.
Source: NAR, Trading Economics (Census data). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
New-home sales rose to their highest level of the year in August, according to Trading Economics. Many builders have cut prices, according to the NAHB survey. This may pull some buyers away from the resale market.
The Macro Backdrop for the US Housing Market
The housing data arrive in a tense macro setting. The table lists the main forces.
Source: Nation Thailand, Trading Economics, BabyPips, La Nacion (AP). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Fed Rate Hike and Mortgage Rates
The Fed raised rates on 16 September for the first time since 2023. The vote moved the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. Chair Kevin Warsh said "The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long." Source: Nation Thailand.
A Fed hike does not set mortgage rates directly. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields more closely. Still, the hike signalled that policy may stay tight for longer. You can read more in our preview of the October Fed decision.
Treasury Yields at a 24-Year High
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.28% on 2 October. It briefly touched 5.34%, the highest since 2002, as reported by 24/7 Wall St. The same report cites heavy debt supply and rising global yields as key drivers.
Mortgage rates usually move with the 10-year yield. This is why the bond sell-off pushed home loan costs above 7%. Our weekly digest on Treasury yields looks at the bond market in more depth.
Inflation and the Energy Shock
Headline CPI held at 3.4% y/y in August, according to Trading Economics. Petrol and fuel costs drove much of the increase. The US conflict with Iran has disrupted energy markets since early 2026. Brent crude traded above $100 per barrel on 9 September, as reported by the Ghana News Agency.
September CPI is due on 14 October. The consensus is 3.6% y/y for the headline and 2.5% for the core rate, according to investingLive. A hot reading could lift yields again. Our US CPI September 2026 preview sets out the scenarios.
September existing home sales mostly capture the calm summer rate environment. The real test of 7% mortgage rates is likely to come with the October and November data.
Existing Home Sales Forecast: Scenarios for 13 October
The scenarios below are illustrative. They show how the release could play out and how markets might react. They are not predictions.
Illustrative scenarios by Admirals based on the Trading Economics consensus. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
A print of 4.05M would be about 1.8% above August. A print of 3.88M would be about 2.5% below it. Either would count as a clear surprise against the 3.96M existing home sales forecast.
What to Watch Inside the Report
The headline is only part of the story. Traders often check these details too.
- Months' supply at 5.0 or above would be the highest in about a decade.
- A weak median price gain would suggest that price growth is stalling.
- The regional split shows whether the South and West are holding up.
- Revisions to August can change the monthly comparison.
- The cash share shows how far buyers rely on mortgages.
How Markets Have Often Reacted to Existing Home Sales
This is a second-tier release for most assets. Data from thetrading.tools cover 229 release days since 1999. They show that the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) moved only a little more than on a typical day.
Source: thetrading.tools, data since 1999. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The release tends to matter more for housing-related stocks than for the wider market. Builders and mortgage lenders can react more strongly.
Homebuilder Stocks and the ITB ETF
The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) closed at $84.76 on 9 October 2026 at 16:00 EDT. It sat just above its 52-week low of $83.69. The fund is down about 26% from its 52-week high of $115.26.
Source: StockAnalysis and Frenzy Capital, as of the close on 9 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The price trades below all three main moving averages. That is a weak trend picture. Some short-term oscillators look stretched to the downside, according to Frenzy Capital. A less weak print could support a short relief bounce, while a miss could push the price below $83.69. These are possibilities, not forecasts.
According to StockAnalysis, D.R. Horton is the largest ITB holding at 17.9%. PulteGroup follows at 11.0%. NVR and Lennar each weigh close to 7.8%.
The 5-Year Picture for Home Sales and Homebuilders
Short-term moves look different against a longer history. The table shows five full calendar years of NAR data and ITB returns.
Sales were flat at 4.06M in both 2024 and 2025. Source: NAR via StreetInsider (2021), CNN via ABC17 (2021 price), CNN via WSVN (2022), FOX 29 (2023), Scripps News (2024 and 2025), BlackRock (ITB calendar-year total returns in USD). Period 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2025. The 2024 median is derived from the 2025 figure and its 1.7% rise. Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sales fell sharply in 2022 and 2023 as rates rose from pandemic lows. They then stayed near 4 million, the lowest level since 1995. ITB swung widely over the same years. It gained in three years and lost in two.
What It Means for the Dollar and Bonds
A single housing report rarely moves the dollar much. It can still add to the growth picture. A weak print together with soft CPI could support bonds and weigh on the dollar. A strong print together with hot CPI could do the opposite.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on 9 October, according to AP via La Nacion. ITB closed the same day just above its 52-week low, as shown in the table above.
Housing Market Forecast 2026: What Institutions Expect
Most forecasts were published before mortgage rates rose above 7%. They assumed rates of about 6.3% to 6.7%. They therefore carry downside risk.
Source: Trading Economics, RealEstateNews (NAR), RealEstateNews (Realtor.com), Scotsman Guide (Fannie Mae). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NAR has already cut its 2026 sales forecast from 14% growth to 4%, as reported by RealEstateNews. Further cuts by forecasters would not be unusual if rates stay above 7%.
Tailwinds and Headwinds for the US Housing Market
The outlook has both supports and risks. The table puts them side by side.
Source: NAR, MPA (Redfin), BabyPips, MortgageDaily.
Redfin agents say demand is pent up below 6%, according to MPA. A fast drop in yields could therefore revive sales. A further rise could deepen the slowdown.
Economic Calendar This Week and Beyond
The housing release opens a busy run of US data. CPI on 14 October is the bigger event for most markets. You can follow all times in the Admirals economic calendar.
Source: NAR, BabyPips, thetrading.tools, investingLive. UK clocks change on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November.
How to Trade Existing Home Sales: What Traders Often Watch
Market reactions have often depended more on the surprise against consensus than on the level itself. Traders often compare the print with 3.96M within seconds of the release.
- Many traders watch the gap between the actual figure and the consensus.
- Some focus on homebuilder shares, which have often reacted more than broad indices.
- Others watch the 10-year yield, since it links housing to mortgage rates.
- Market reactions have often faded quickly when CPI is due the next day.
- Spreads can widen and prices can gap around data releases.
Our guide to fundamental analysis explains how macro data feed into prices. The article on trading with government bonds covers the yield side.
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Key Takeaways
- NAR releases September existing home sales on 13 October 2026 at 10:00 ET.
- The consensus is 3.96M SAAR against 3.98M in August.
- September closings mostly reflect July and August contracts at rates near 6.7%.
- The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.40% on 8 October, the highest since 2023.
- Forward indicators suggest a risk of more weakness in October and November.
- Inventory and price cuts are rising, giving buyers more leverage.
- US CPI on 14 October may matter more for markets than the housing data.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the September 2026 existing home sales report released?
NAR releases the September report on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 10:00 ET, which is 15:00 in London.
What is the consensus for existing home sales?
Analysts expect 3.96 million homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly below the August pace of 3.98 million.
Why are mortgage rates going up?
Mortgage rates track long-term Treasury yields, which hit a 24-year high as inflation stayed high and borrowing grew.
Will home prices drop?
The median price rose 1.6% y/y in August. Rising listings and more price cuts may slow gains in coming months.
Will the Fed hike again?
On 2 October, CME FedWatch showed a 77% chance of an October hold, though September CPI could shift those odds.
How do existing home sales affect homebuilder stocks?
Homebuilder shares such as D.R. Horton can react to surprises, though the size of the move has varied widely.
What is months' supply?
It shows how long current inventory would last at the present sales pace, and August reached 4.9 months.
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Sources
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