US and UK GDP Reports Draw Investors’ Attention
The US and UK GDP reports for the second quarter of the year are among the most important financial data releases for the remainder of the week. The debate between the Republicans and the Democrats regarding government funding continues with a potential shutdown looming.
According to a Reuters poll, the majority of City economists believe the Bank of England (BoE) has raised interest rates for the last time in this cycle. 47 out of 62 analysts surveyed predicted that the BoE will leave interest rates on hold again at 5.25% at its next meeting in November. The Reuters survey also said that the BoE’s rates are expected to remain unchanged until at least next July, before dropping to 4.75% by the end of 2024.
A report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.2% in the year to August 2023, compared with the annual increase of 4.9% seen in July. Market analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could be forced to discuss another rate hike as it tries to combat inflation.
US GDP Q2 2023 Report
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is expected to release the country’s GDP data for the second quarter of 2023. Economists forecast the US economy to have expanded by 2.1% on a quarterly basis, following suit the first quarter’s growth rate. The Federal Open Market Committee policymakers have raised the GDP projection to 2.1% for 2023, a notable upgrade from the 1.0% growth projected in June and expanding by 1.5% in 2024.
The Federal Reserve also lowered the anticipated unemployment rate for 2023 which, combined with the upgraded GDP forecast, suggests that higher rates may be the case for longer than originally expected.
Global rating agency Moody’s revised up the US GDP predictions in its latest report. Moody’s analysts noted that "we have raised our growth forecast for the United States' economy to 1.9% in 2023 from 1.1% in our May outlook, acknowledging the strong underlying economic momentum," and kept the 1.0% US growth forecasts for 2024.
UK GDP Q2 2023 Report
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish its GDP data for the second quarter of the year early on Friday morning. Market analysts suggest that the GDP growth rate could come in at 0.2% and 0.4% on a quarterly and annualised basis, respectively. The report is important as the recent data showed the UK’s economy struggling to avoid recession.
KPMG’s latest UK Economic Outlook, published on September 25th, said that high interest rates, continued uncertainty and low productivity could see the UK struggle to keep its head above water in the second half of the year, with GDP growth forecast at 0.4% in 2023 and 0.3% in 2024.
Tokyo CPI September 2023 Data
The Japanese Statistics Bureau will release data regarding the Tokyo CPI inflation on Friday. Economists anticipate Tokyo CPI Core inflation to come in at 2.6%, on an annualised basis, in September. It should be noted that Tokyo CPI Core inflation had come in at 2.8% in August.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes showed that the board discussed if wage raises could continue while profits remain weak for many firms.
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