UK Budget on 28 October: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP and FTSE 100 Scenarios
Chancellor John Healey delivers his first UK Budget on Wednesday 28 October 2026, usually around 12:30 UK time. The US Federal Reserve then publishes its FOMC statement at 18:00 UK time on the same day. GBP/USD traded near 1.3373 on 21 October and EUR/GBP was near 0.8394 at the same time. The FTSE 100 closed at 10,733 on 20 October.
The main question for markets is fiscal credibility. The 30-year gilt yield peaked at about 6.05% on 8 October, its highest since 1998, according to roic.ai. It has since eased to about 5.83% as some investors bet on a cautious Budget. This article sets out the key levels and the calendar. It also outlines four illustrative scenarios.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Key Takeaways
- UK Budget 2026 at a Glance
- Market Snapshot Before the Budget
- Why Gilt Yields Matter So Much This Time
- What Could Be in Healey's First Budget
- Bank of England: A November Hike Is Largely Priced
- FOMC on Budget Day: Why 18:00 UK Matters
- ECB on 29 October and the Euro Side
- Budget Week Calendar in UK Time
- GBP/USD Analysis Ahead of the Budget
- EUR/GBP Analysis Ahead of the Budget
- FTSE 100 Analysis Ahead of the Budget
- Five-Year Performance of the Pound Pairs and the FTSE 100
- UK Budget Scenarios: Illustrative Paths
- Analyst Forecasts and Views
- Pros and Cons of Trading Around Budget Day
- How Traders Often Approach Budget Day Volatility
- Key Risks to Watch
- How Admirals Clients Can Access These Markets
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
The figures below are dated and sourced. Market prices move quickly, so levels may differ by the time of reading.
Key Takeaways
- The OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook is due alongside the Autumn Budget 2026 on 28 October.
- The FOMC statement follows at 18:00 UK time, because UK clocks go back on 25 October and US clocks only on 1 November.
- The 30-year gilt yield hit 6.047% on 8 October and stood at about 5.83% on 21 October.
- A Reuters poll put Healey's fiscal headroom at about £10bn to £12bn, down from £23.6bn in March.
- GBP/USD rebounded from its 2026 low of 1.3137 on 14 October to about 1.3373 on 21 October.
- EUR/GBP fell to a 2026 low of 0.8385 on 20 October.
- The FTSE 100 closed at 10,733 on 20 October, about 1.6% below its record close of 10,910.55.
- A Bank of England hike to 4.00% on 5 November was about 95% priced on 19 October, according to a broker note from Vantage Markets.
UK Budget 2026 at a Glance
Healey announced the Budget date on 31 July, as reported by City AM. It is his first Budget in Prime Minister Andy Burnham's government. The exact start time has yet to be confirmed. By convention, the Chancellor speaks after Prime Minister's Questions, around 12:30 UK time, as BDO explains.
Source: City AM, BDO, Federal Reserve, ECB. Times converted to UK time (GMT from 25 October).
What time is the UK Budget announcement?
The Treasury has not published a start time yet. Past Budgets have usually begun around 12:30 UK time, straight after PMQs. The OBR normally releases its forecast shortly after the speech ends.
Market Snapshot Before the Budget
Every price below carries its date and time. FX trades over the counter, so a consolidated volume figure is unavailable for currencies.
Source: Pound Sterling Live GBP/USD, Pound Sterling Live EUR/GBP, ad-hoc-news, Trading Economics 30Y, Trading Economics 10Y, roic.ai. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why Gilt Yields Matter So Much This Time
Gilt yields set the cost of government borrowing. They also feed into mortgage pricing and the pound. This year the bond market has tightened conditions before the Chancellor has said a word.
The 30-year gilt above 6%
The 30-year yield rose to 6.029% intraday on 1 October, the first move above 6% since 1998, as roic.ai reported. It climbed further to 6.047% on 8 October. On the same day the 10-year reached 5.527%, its highest since 2007, according to roic.ai.
Source: roic.ai, 1 Oct, roic.ai, 8 Oct, Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, Trading Economics. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Since then, several fund managers have bought gilts. They are betting on a dull and disciplined Budget, as Bloomberg reported on 19 October. Readers new to the asset class can find the basics in the Admirals guide on how government bonds work.
Gilt yields and mortgage rates
Higher UK borrowing costs reach households quickly. Lenders pulled sub-5% mortgage deals in early October, and some five-year fixes reached 6%. Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane warned about the gilt link, as reported on 7 October. This is why gilt yields and mortgage rates sit at the centre of the Budget debate.
Fiscal headroom: how much room does Healey have?
Headroom is the buffer between the government's plans and its fiscal rules. A Reuters poll of 19 economists put it at about £10bn to £12bn on 15 October. That compares with £23.6bn at the March fiscal update.
Source: Global Banking and Finance Review / Reuters, 15 October 2026. Estimates are views of third parties and may change.
The wide range matters. The OBR's scoring of each measure could move the final figure by billions.
Public borrowing and the £3trn milestone
September public sector net borrowing came in at £24.52bn, above the consensus of £23.85bn. Net debt passed £3trn for the first time, as Reuters reported on 21 October. Borrowing from April to September reached £97.8bn, against the OBR's earlier forecast of £91.8bn.
What Could Be in Healey's First Budget
The government has pledged to keep the headline rates of income tax and VAT unchanged. The same pledge covers National Insurance, according to BDO. That leaves smaller taxes and spending choices to do the work.
Source: Which?, CMC Markets, City AM. Measures are reported or rumoured and are subject to the final Budget.
The bank surcharge question
Analysts widely see banks as one of the most Budget-sensitive sectors. The current 3% surcharge raises just over £1bn a year. Global Banking and Finance Review reported on 16 October that analysts expect either a return to 8% or a rise of 2 to 3 percentage points. The big four UK lenders were down 3% to 5% in October by that date.
What the gilt market wants
Fund managers have said credibility is the key test. Amundi warned that "the market will be disappointed if this buffer is below £10bn", as Trustnet reported on 14 October. Global Banking and Finance Review also cited Nomura on the risk of borrowing through public financial institutions.
Bank of England: A November Hike Is Largely Priced
The Bank of England announced on 17 September that it had held Bank Rate at 3.75%. The vote was 6 to 3, with three members voting for 4%. The MPC projected CPI at about 3.75% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027, as the Bank of England minutes show.
Source: FXStreet, MoneyWeek, Vantage Markets. Figures in the Expected column are consensus forecasts or market pricing. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What the September vote showed
Source: Bank of England, September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes.
Markets price about four 25bp hikes by July 2027, according to FXStreet on 20 October. A tighter Budget could ease some of that pressure. That link matters for the Bank of England rate decision on 5 November.
FOMC on Budget Day: Why 18:00 UK Matters
The FOMC meets on 27 and 28 October. The statement is due at 2:00 pm ET and the press conference at 2:30 pm ET, per the Federal Reserve calendar. Because of the clock changes, that is 18:00 and 18:30 in the UK.
Source: Federal Reserve, ECB. The time gap is four hours from 25 October until US clocks change on 1 November.
The Fed backdrop
The Fed raised its target range by 25bp to 3.75% to 4.00% on 16 September, as the FOMC statement shows. Admirals covered that decision in its blog on the Fed rate rise. A hold is expected in October. CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at 82.8% on 20 October, according to FXStreet.
On rough calculations by Vantage, the dollar's fall between 14 and 16 October matched about 70% of sterling's rebound. The DXY fell from 102.94 to 101.84 over those days, as Vantage Markets notes. For this reason, the Fed's tone at 18:00 could outweigh the Budget's effect on GBP/USD. The Admirals preview of the FOMC minutes gives more background.
ECB on 29 October and the Euro Side
The ECB deposit rate stands at 2.50% after September's hike. Danske expects a pause on 29 October and a final hike to 2.75% in December, as FXStreet reported. Eurozone inflation was 3.7% in September.
France is the other euro driver. The French 10-year spread over German Bunds reached 141bp on 12 October, the widest since 2012, according to FXStreet. That stress has helped push EUR/GBP to 16-month lows.
Budget Week Calendar in UK Time
UK clocks move from BST to GMT on Sunday 25 October. US clocks change a week later. Readers can track every release on the Admirals economic calendar.
Source: Federal Reserve, ECB, BDO, Currency News. PMI and GDP times follow usual schedules and may change.
GBP/USD Analysis Ahead of the Budget
GBP/USD fell from 1.3550 at the start of September to a 2026 low of 1.3137 on 14 October. That low came after a hot US CPI report. The pair then closed the day back at 1.3194, as Pound Sterling Live data show. It has since recovered to about 1.3373.
What happened to the $1.318 break?
CMC Markets' Michael Kramer said on 14 October that a break of $1.318 could open a move toward $1.30, as CMC Markets wrote. The break did happen intraday that same day. However, the pair closed above it, and the move toward $1.30 has yet to follow. The 14 October close of 1.3194 therefore remains the 2026 low on a closing basis, according to Pound Sterling Live data.
GBP/USD support and resistance
Source: K2FX, Pound Sterling Live, FXStreet, CMC Markets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The daily RSI sat near 51 on 19 October, a neutral reading, according to K2FX. Its house view was cautiously neutral while 1.3250 holds. More on how the pair behaves is in the Admirals guide to the major currency pairs.
EUR/GBP Analysis Ahead of the Budget
EUR/GBP has fallen from 0.8600 on 25 September to a 2026 low of 0.8385 on 20 October. It traded at 0.8394 on the morning of 21 October, down about 3.8% from its 2026 opening level of 0.8724, as Pound Sterling Live shows. Analysts link the move mainly to French fiscal stress and a hawkish Bank of England, as FXStreet noted.
EUR/GBP levels to watch
Source: K2FX, FXMAG, Pound Sterling Live. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The daily RSI fell to about 22 on 19 October, a deeply oversold reading, according to K2FX. Oversold readings can precede a rebound. They can also persist during strong trends.
Why lower gilt yields may cut both ways
Rabobank expected EUR/GBP to hold its recent range, as FXStreet reported on 30 September. It also noted that more than 100bp of UK tightening is already priced. Lower gilt yields after a calm Budget could therefore reduce sterling's yield appeal.
FTSE 100 Analysis Ahead of the Budget
The FTSE 100 closed at 10,733 on 20 October, down 0.3% on the day as banks weighed. It was up 8.1% year to date and 1.6% below its record close, as ad-hoc-news reported. The record close of 10,910.55 dates from 27 February 2026, according to Wikipedia.
FTSE 100 support and resistance
Source: Hilsden Trading, Wikipedia. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
On 15 October the index closed at 10,840.35 after Healey backed fiscal discipline, as Reuters via Investing.com reported. Daily momentum has since cooled, with RSI near 54, according to Hilsden Trading.
Sector sensitivity to the Budget
Source: Global Banking and Finance Review, ad-hoc-news, CMC Markets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Many FTSE 100 companies are internationally focused, so the index is significantly affected by the pound's exchange rate, as Wikipedia notes. A weaker pound can therefore support the index in pound terms, although this link does not always hold. A stronger pound can act as a mild drag.
Five-Year Performance of the Pound Pairs and the FTSE 100
The table shows the previous five full calendar years and 2026 so far. FX figures use year-end closes. FTSE 100 figures use official index closes.
Source: Pound Sterling Live GBP/USD history (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026), EUR/GBP history (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026) and Wikipedia for FTSE 100 closes. Period 1 January 2021 to 21 October 2026. Each change compares a year-end close with the previous one; the 2020 closes were 1.3661 for GBP/USD and 0.8849 for EUR/GBP. In the source data the EUR/GBP close for 2020 equals the 2022 close. All changes are price moves, before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 2022 row includes the mini-budget episode. Gilt yields and the pound both moved sharply then. The strong 2025 FTSE 100 gain followed a flat 2022 and smaller rises in 2023 and 2024. The currency pairs rose in some years and fell in others.
UK Budget Scenarios: Illustrative Paths
The scenarios below are illustrative. They summarise views published by third parties. They describe how markets could react and carry real uncertainty. Actual outcomes may differ.
Source: compiled from Bloomberg via Yahoo Finance, CMC Markets, K2FX, Vantage Markets, Currency News. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Scenario A: dull and disciplined
Here Healey rebuilds headroom to about £15bn or more. Revenue comes from smaller taxes, possibly including a modest bank surcharge rise. UBS and HSBC have said a smooth Budget could lower the 10-year gilt yield by up to 20bp, as FXMAG reported.
- GBP/USD could test resistance around 1.3409 to 1.3430 if the FOMC is not hawkish.
- EUR/GBP could stay under pressure near its 2026 low.
- Banks could see relief if the surcharge rise sits at the low end.
- The downside is that lower yields may reduce sterling's appeal to yield-seeking investors.
Scenario B: credibility gap
Here headroom falls below £10bn. Spending may also look back-loaded or uncosted. CMC Markets said on 14 October that the 10-year gilt could head toward 5.6%, and toward 5.9% if tax rises fall short, according to CMC Markets. This could resemble the pattern of rising yields and a falling pound seen in 2022.
- GBP/USD could revisit 1.3194 and the 1.318 area.
- A close below those levels could expose 1.3100 and 1.3000, based on K2FX levels.
- EUR/GBP could rebound toward 0.8450 to 0.8500.
- The FTSE 100 could lose the 10,660 support level if banks and housebuilders fall.
Budget day carries two major events. The Budget speech is due around 12:30 UK time, and the FOMC statement follows at 18:00 UK time, so a clear early reaction can reverse by the evening.
Scenario C: the Fed overrides the Budget
At 18:00 UK time, the FOMC could signal a December hike more firmly. That could lift the dollar back toward its 14 October level of 102.94 on the DXY. GBP/USD could then fall whatever the Budget says, as the Vantage Markets analysis implies. A dovish message could have the opposite effect.
Scenario D: Bank of England follow-through
A tighter Budget could reduce the need for further rate rises after November. Markets currently price about four hikes by July 2027. Crédit Agricole calls that pricing aggressive, as Currency News reported. A repricing could weigh on sterling even in scenario A.
Analyst Forecasts and Views
Analysts differ widely. The table gathers published views with their dates.
Source: CMC Markets, K2FX, Currency News, FXStreet (Rabobank), FXMAG, FXStreet (Danske), FXStreet (FedWatch). Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ING sees the EU-UK summit on 20 November as a possible support for sterling, according to Currency News. Société Générale takes the opposite view and favours a weaker pound by 2027.
Pros and Cons of Trading Around Budget Day
Event days can bring larger moves in both directions. The table sets out both sides.
Admirals editorial summary of common event-day features.
How Traders Often Approach Budget Day Volatility
Traders often prepare a plan before the event. Attention usually centres on the scheduled releases at about 12:30 and 18:00 UK time. The list below describes common habits. It is not a recommendation to trade.
- Traders often mark key levels such as 1.3194 on GBP/USD and 0.8385 on EUR/GBP in advance.
- Many traders also follow the OBR headroom figure closely.
- Some traders reduce position size before releases to manage risk.
- On days with two major releases, each event can trigger its own reaction.
- Many traders wait for daily closes before judging whether a level has broken.
- Some traders use a demo account to test a plan first.
Stop-loss orders can help manage risk. They may not fill at the chosen price when markets gap. The Admirals guide to forex risk management covers these points. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Key Risks to Watch
- Higher oil prices could keep UK inflation elevated.
- A global bond sell-off could lift gilt yields whatever the Budget contains.
- Pre-Budget leaks could move markets before 28 October.
- The OBR's scoring could shift headroom by several billion pounds.
- BofA's Sinha said FX options do not treat the Budget as a key risk event, which may leave markets exposed to a surprise.
- French politics could move EUR/GBP independently of the UK.
Sources for the points above include Global Banking and Finance Review. The OBR point draws on the Reuters poll. Brent crude matters because higher energy costs have lifted UK inflation, with motor fuel prices up 29.8% over the year to September, according to MoneyWeek.
How Admirals Clients Can Access These Markets
Admirals offers CFDs on Forex. These include GBP/USD and EUR/GBP. It also offers CFDs on indices, including the UK100, which is based on the FTSE 100. CFDs allow exposure to price moves in both directions. They also carry a high risk of loss because of leverage. Costs such as spreads and overnight swaps apply and may vary.
Conclusion
The UK Budget on 28 October tests fiscal credibility after a sharp rise in gilt yields. The Reuters poll estimate of about £10bn to £12bn would leave less room than in March. The FOMC at 18:00 UK time adds a second risk on the same day. The ECB follows on 29 October. The Bank of England decides on 5 November.
CMC Markets and Pound Sterling Live data point to 1.318 and 1.3194 on the GBP/USD downside. On the upside, the 1.3409 one-month high and the 1.3430 K2FX level stand out. For EUR/GBP, 0.8385 is the 2026 low. In Hilsden Trading's analysis, 10,660 and 10,770 frame the near-term picture for the FTSE 100. Every scenario carries both upside and downside risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Autumn Budget 2026?
The Budget is on Wednesday 28 October 2026, with the speech usually expected around 12:30 UK time after PMQs.
What time is the FOMC statement on 28 October?
The FOMC statement is due at 18:00 UK time, and the press conference starts at 18:30 UK time that evening.
Will the pound fall after the Budget?
The reaction depends on headroom and gilt yields. The Fed's tone that evening could also move the pound either way.
Is the UK Budget priced in?
Partly, since gilts rallied on hopes of discipline, yet a surprise in headroom or OBR scoring could still move markets.
How will the Budget affect mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates often track gilt yields, so a credible Budget could ease them and a weak one could raise them.
How does the Budget affect the stock market?
Banks and housebuilders are often most sensitive to tax and rate news, and exporters may gain when the pound weakens.
What is fiscal headroom?
Headroom is the margin between planned borrowing and the fiscal rules, put near £10bn to £12bn by a Reuters poll.
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