Trading the February seasonal pattern in silver
February 05, 2020 12:15
Seasonal Pattern in Silver
The key parameter of this seasonal bullish pattern is as follows: between February 5 - 21, Silver saw an average gain of 1.17 USD for 12 of the past 16 years. In the remaining four years, it dropped on average only 0.53 USD, while the maximum loss and the maximum drawdown were 0.96 USD.Trade the Seasonal Pattern: Silver
And now the key question: how could we trade this? Here's the plan:- After identifying the profitable seasonal window, we buy Silver on the closing price of the starting date on February 05 (22:59 CET).
- We identify the maximum loss within the seasonal period. Then, have a look at the daily chart and the ATR(14) indicator.
- If the maximum loss is above the ATR(14) reading, round it up to the next round number and use it as worst-case-stop.
- If the maximum loss is below the ATR(14) reading, use the ATR(14) as your stop-width (rounded up to the next round number).
- We Look at the average gain of the seasonal pattern, and place the take profit at this distance from your entry point.
- If the trade is not stopped out or it does not reach its take profit within the seasonal period, end the trade market on the closing price on February 21.
Looking at current market data, since the ATR(14) in Silver on a daily time frame is currently trading around 0.31 USD, while the maximum loss of the window was 0.96 USD, our worst-case stop will be placed based on a maximum loss 0.90 USD away from our entry price.
Meanwhile, the average gain of the seasonal pattern is 1.16 USD within this period. So, after entering the trade on the closing price of February 5, we would add 1.20 USD to get our take profit level.
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