Market Analysis: DAX30 CFD with a break below 11,300 into the weekly close?
Since the economic calendar is relatively thin on Friday, we want to have a deeper look on the technical side within the DAX30 CFD, and also look at the "small expiration" at the EUREX. At the EUREX, not only the Future-DAX (FDAX) is traded, but also options on the FDAX (ODAX). These are expiring each month on every third Friday. Over the last few days it became more and more clear that the bigger market participants were quite keen on holding the FDAX above 11,300 points. One reason could be found, when looking at the 'Open Interest in Puts' where at 11,300 points the highest open interest could be found.
Source: Economic Events 16 November 2018 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
To put it differently: it should be expected that due to this motivation, over the last few days there was a natural demand coming into the market trying to avoid a break below 11,300 points in the FDAX, at least until the expiration at 1pm (CET) today. Yesterday, a first attempt to break below 11,300 points occurred in the afternoon, but put options were able to push the FDAX back significantly above 11,300 into the daily close.
Nevertheless, it seems likely that another attempt to break below 11,300 points, especially after 1pm (CET), after the demand of those market participants diminishing is a serious option. If such a break lower occurs, further losses into the weekly close seem likely, with a first target to be found around 11,150/200 points. If such a break does not occur, it will remain on the table as long as the bulls can't push the DAX30 CFD back above 11,570 points.
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on, Accessed: 15 November 2018, 11:00 PM CET
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