Italy Industrial Production September 2026: 1.2% Rebound Beats Forecasts as Q3 Still Falls
Italian industrial output rose 1.2% in September 2026 from August, ISTAT said on 11 November. That beat the 0.7% consensus by 0.5 percentage points. Output was still 0.1% lower than a year earlier, and the third quarter ended 0.4% below the second. Source: ISTAT.
The rebound followed a sharp August fall, now revised to -1.2% from -1.3%. Capital goods and intermediate goods led the recovery. Energy output fell back after its summer surge. This article covers the numbers and the sector detail. It also looks at the market reaction and the dates that come next.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Italy Industrial Production Today: The Key Numbers at a Glance
- Italy Industrial Production by Sector
- Which Sectors Gained and Which Lost Over the Year?
- The Italy Industrial Production August Revision
- Italy Industrial Production Q3 2026 and GDP
- Market Reaction to the September Data
- The Energy Shock Behind the Numbers
- The ECB and Italian Industry
- What the Surveys Say About Italian Manufacturing
- Italy Industrial Production vs Euro Area
- Five-Year History of Italian Industrial Production
- FTSE MIB and EUR/USD: Five-Year Context
- Technical Levels Traders Are Watching
- Italy Industrial Production Forecast for October and Q4
- Illustrative Scenarios for the Coming Weeks
- Key Dates: Italy Economic Calendar November 2026
- How Traders Often Approach Industrial Production Data
- Conclusion
- Frequently Asked Questions
- What was Italy's industrial production in September 2026?
- Did Italy industrial production beat expectations?
- Why did Italian output rise in September?
- How did Italian industry do in Q3 2026?
- Which sectors fell the most over the year?
- When is the next Italy industrial production release?
- How did the FTSE MIB react to the data?
Risk warning: The value of shares can fall as well as rise, and you may get back less than you invest. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. This article is general information and should not be treated as investment advice.
Italy Industrial Production Today: The Key Numbers at a Glance
ISTAT published the September figures at 10:00 Rome time (09:00 UTC and 09:00 UK time). The timing came from the ISTAT 2026 release calendar. The headline beat was clear. The quarterly picture stayed weak.
Source: ISTAT, Industrial production September 2026 (PDF); consensus from Cicli e Asc Trading. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
How Big Was the Beat Against the Forecast?
The consensus of +0.7% came from the Teleborsa survey, as quoted by Cicli e Asc Trading. Trading Economics had its own lower model forecast of +0.3% m/m. The actual +1.2% sat well above both.
Sources: Cicli e Asc Trading, FinTech Global, ISTAT. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Why Did Italy Industrial Production Rise in September?
The simplest answer is a bounce. August output dropped sharply, so part of September's gain is a return to a more normal level. Prometeia had called a September rise "largely statistical" in its October outlook. Capital goods and intermediate goods made up most of the lost ground.
Italy Industrial Production by Sector
The detail matters more than the headline this month. Two main groupings grew strongly on the month. Two fell. The agency reports from Il Diario del Lavoro and Italpress carry the full breakdown.
Sources: Il Diario del Lavoro, Italpress, based on ISTAT data for September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Capital Goods Lead the Recovery
Capital goods rose 1.3% on the month and 2.1% on the year. This group covers machinery and equipment that firms buy to expand. A rise here can point to steady investment demand. One month is a thin basis for that view, though.
Italy Industrial Production Intermediate Goods
Intermediate goods gained 1.2% in September. They are still 1.4% below September 2025. These goods feed other factories, so they often track the wider manufacturing cycle. The August drop in this group was 1.8%, so the September gain only made up part of it.
Italy Industrial Production Energy Falls Back
Energy output fell 1.4% on the month. It is still 4.7% higher than a year ago. August had seen energy jump 2.8% on the month and 11.5% on the year, according to the ISTAT August release. September looks like a partial reversal of that spike.
Consumer Goods Stay Weak
Consumer goods slipped 0.2% on the month and are 3.0% lower on the year. Durable goods were the weakest part. They fell 3.6% m/m and 5.1% y/y. Households facing high energy bills may be holding back on big purchases. The data alone cannot prove that link.
Which Sectors Gained and Which Lost Over the Year?
The annual sector ranking shows where the energy shock bites hardest. Chemicals are the weakest branch by some distance.
Sources: Il Diario del Lavoro, Italpress. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Italy Industrial Production Transport Equipment
Transport equipment posted the biggest annual gain at 7.3%. This branch includes vehicles and other transport goods. It was one of the few bright spots in a mixed report.
Italy Industrial Production Textiles and Chemicals
Textiles were 4.5% lower than a year before. That is a smaller fall than August's 14.0% drop. Chemicals were down 8.3%, after an 11.4% fall in August. Both branches use a lot of energy, so they are exposed to high gas and power costs.
The Italy Industrial Production August Revision
ISTAT revised August to -1.2% from -1.3%. The revision table in the September PDF shows a +0.1 point change for the general index. July was +0.6%, revised earlier from +0.7%.
Source: ISTAT (PDF), ISTAT August release. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The three months together show a stop-start pattern. Each of the three monthly moves was larger than 0.5%. Over the quarter as a whole, the level still fell 0.4%.
Italy Industrial Production Q3 2026 and GDP
The quarterly drop matches the weak GDP picture. ISTAT's preliminary Q3 estimate showed GDP flat on the quarter and up 0.8% on the year. Industry value added fell in the quarter. The carry-over growth for 2026 is 0.8%.
Sources: ISTAT GDP flash (PDF), ISTAT. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The detailed Q3 national accounts are due on 1 December. Traders often watch them to see whether the industry drag gets bigger or smaller.
Market Reaction to the September Data
Italian stocks were already higher before the release. The FTSE MIB opened 0.79% up at 52,161 at 09:04 CET, according to ANSA. It was 0.9% higher, above 52,200, at 09:12 CET. Technoprobe and Mediobanca led after their nine-month results, as ANSA reported.
Sources: Cicli e Asc Trading, ANSA, ANSA, ANSA, Milano Finanza, Teleborsa. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
FTSE MIB Reaction to Industrial Production
By 10:46 CET the index was 0.17% lower at 51,667, according to the market ticker on Teleborsa. It had given back all of its early gain. We found nothing that ties this move to the data. ECB speeches and a Treasury bill auction were also on the morning agenda. So were several company results.
Italy Industrial Production Impact on BTP Spreads
The 10-year BTP-Bund spread opened at 103.4 basis points, down from 105.7 at the prior close. The 10-year BTP yielded 4.33% and the Bund 3.30%, according to ANSA. Our sources did not include a spread quote from after the release. A single industry print rarely moves sovereign spreads much on its own.
Italy Industrial Production Impact on Euro
EUR/USD traded at 1.1152, down 0.07%, in early trading, as reported by Milano Finanza in a live blog last updated at 08:02 CET. The pair had fallen on Tuesday evening after a hotter US inflation report, as Cicli e Asc Trading noted. Italian data usually carries less weight for the euro than German data or ECB signals. Our sources did not show a clear move in the pair around the 10:00 CET release.
The Energy Shock Behind the Numbers
The 2026 conflict involving Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent rose to near $119 by late March, from about $70 before the conflict, as Euronews reported. Brent futures traded at $92.57, up 1.18%, in early trading on 11 November, according to Milano Finanza.
Italy Producer Prices September 2026
Italian producer prices rose 2.9% on the month and 13.8% on the year in September, according to ISTAT. Domestic electricity and gas supply prices were up 35.9% y/y. Refined products were up 91.1%. Excluding energy, domestic prices rose a milder 3.5%.
Sources: ISTAT, GMK Center, Stock Analysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why Energy Costs Matter for Italian Factories
Italy relies heavily on gas for power and for heat in industry. When gas costs rise, energy-heavy branches cut output first. That pattern fits the weak chemicals figures. It also fits the textiles slump seen over the summer.
The ECB and Italian Industry
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October 2026. The main refinancing rate stayed at 2.65% and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%. The ECB statement called rising energy prices an upside risk to inflation. It called the energy shock a downside risk to growth.
Sources: ECB, Finance Calendar.
The deposit rate reached 2.50% after a 25 basis point hike on 10 September, as Continuum Economics noted. Higher rates raise borrowing costs for firms. They also lift the cost of Italian state debt. Continuum Economics said the decision left the door open to further moves, though without great urgency. Our earlier ECB meeting preview sets out the October debate in more detail.
What the Surveys Say About Italian Manufacturing
Hard data and surveys are telling different stories. September output rose. The October PMI fell below 50.
Italy Manufacturing PMI 49.4
Italy's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4 in October from 50.4. The market had expected 50.2, as Newsquawk reported. New orders fell for a fourth month, according to Trading Economics. Output shrank at the fastest pace since the start of the year. Firms also cut jobs for the first time since July.
Italy Manufacturing Confidence October 2026
ISTAT's manufacturing confidence index held at 91.9 in October. That is its highest level since April 2023, as Trading Economics noted. Firms said they expect better orders and output. Confidence and the PMI are pointing in opposite directions for now.
Sources: Newsquawk, Trading Economics (euro area), Trading Economics (Germany), Newsquawk (France), Trading Economics (Italy confidence). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Italy Industrial Production vs Euro Area
Italy's quarterly fall matches Germany's. Germany also posted a strong September month and a weak quarter. France was weaker on both counts.
Sources: ISTAT, Destatis, INSEE, SteelOrbis, MetaTrader economic calendar. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Italy vs Germany Industrial Production
German output rose 0.7% in September, with August revised down to +1.0% from +2.0%, according to Destatis. Its Q3 level fell 0.4%, the same as Italy's. Energy-intensive German output was 3.5% lower on the quarter. Our German August production analysis covers the earlier data.
Italy Industrial Production vs France
French industry fell 0.5% in September, while manufacturing alone rose 0.5%, as INSEE reported. French industry dropped 1.1% over Q3. France also faces fiscal stress. Our piece on the OAT-Bund spread explains how that weighs on the euro.
A strong month inside a falling quarter is a common pattern in European industry this autumn. Italy and Germany both show it, so one good print may say little about the trend.
Five-Year History of Italian Industrial Production
A longer view helps put one month in context. The table below shows annual average output changes for each full year from 2021 to 2025.
Sources: ING THINK, L'Adige, LaPresse, ItaliaOggi, ISTAT December 2025 (PDF), ISTAT September 2026 (PDF). Bases differ slightly between years. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 2021 jump followed the 2020 collapse. Three years of decline came next. The small 2026 gain so far keeps output near the lows of recent years.
FTSE MIB and EUR/USD: Five-Year Context
The FTSE MIB stood at 51,667 at 10:46 CET on 11 November, according to Teleborsa. That is about 4.4% below its August 2026 record of 54,041.8, according to Trading Economics. It is roughly 15% above the 2025 close. Within that period, a late-October correction took the index to about 49,000, as Traderlink noted.
Source: Wikipedia, FTSE MIB annual returns table. Index price changes exclude dividends and are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Source: FRED, U.S. Dollars to Euro Spot Exchange Rate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The euro's 12-month change to 10 November was about -3.2%, based on Trading Economics. Traders who follow index trading often compare these moves with the macro data before forming a view.
Technical Levels Traders Are Watching
Technical levels come from third-party analysts and change quickly. They are shown here for context only.
Sources: Teleborsa technical analysis, Traderlink, Continuum Economics, Trading Economics. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FTSE MIB Support and Resistance
Teleborsa's analysis of the 9 November close put resistance at 51,886 and named 53,344 as its next target, as shown in its daily report. Support was at 50,428. At 10:46 CET the index stood at 51,667, below that resistance.
EUR/USD Key Levels
EUR/USD traded at 1.1152 early on Wednesday, just above the 1.1150 support. Continuum Economics described daily momentum as mixed to negative. On its levels, a break below 1.1130 could bring the year's low of 1.1100 to 1.1105 into view, while a move above 1.1200 could bring 1.1270 into view.
Italy Industrial Production Forecast for October and Q4
Prometeia expects output to dip 0.2% in October and rise 0.5% in November. It sees Q4 growth near 0.3%, which it called "near stagnation" in its mid-October outlook. It said export orders linked to AI were offsetting some of the drag from the wars.
Sources: FinTech Global, MetaTrader economic calendar. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ISTAT also planned to publish its economic outlook for Italy for 2026 and 2027 at 11:00 CET on 11 November. This article was written before that note came out.
Illustrative Scenarios for the Coming Weeks
The scenarios below are illustrative only. They show how markets could read the next data points. None of them is a prediction.
Illustrative scenarios based on Prometeia via FinTech Global and Il Foglio. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Upside and Downside Factors
Sources: ISTAT, Newsquawk, ISTAT producer prices, ANSA, Trading Economics, Euronews, Milano Finanza.
Key Dates: Italy Economic Calendar November 2026
The next release of Italy industrial production is due on 11 December. Several other events could shape the picture before then. Times below follow the ISTAT calendar unless stated.
Sources: ISTAT calendar (PDF), Il Foglio, MetaTrader, Finance Calendar.
The S&P Rating Review on 13 November
S&P rates Italy BBB+ with a positive outlook. Moody's has Italy at Baa2 with a stable outlook, as Il Foglio listed in September. A rating change can move BTP yields. The industry data feeds into how agencies judge growth.
How Traders Often Approach Industrial Production Data
Industrial production is a second-tier release for most markets. It tends to matter more when it surprises, or when it changes the growth story. Our guide on how to trade the news covers the basics.
What Traders Often Watch
- Many traders compare the actual figure with the consensus forecast.
- Some focus on the quarterly trend over the monthly change.
- Revisions to the prior month can change the read of a release.
- Sector detail can show whether a rise is broad or narrow.
- The BTP-Bund spread often reflects how markets view Italian risk.
- An economic calendar helps traders track release times.
Risks to Keep in Mind
- Monthly Italian output data is volatile and often revised.
- Market moves around a release can be fast and hard to predict.
- Other events on the same morning can drive prices more than the data.
- Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains.
Admirals offers Forex and CFDs on indices and commodities. Traders can view Forex pairs such as EUR/USD on MetaTrader 5. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
For background on the August data, see our August industrial production analysis. For more on equity indices, our index trading guide explains how index CFDs work.
Conclusion
Italy industrial production rose 1.2% in September, beating the 0.7% forecast. The gain looks like a partial rebound from August. Q3 output still fell 0.4%, and the October PMI points to weak demand. Energy costs and ECB policy remain the main forces on Italian industry. The October figures on 11 December will show whether the bounce lasts.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was Italy's industrial production in September 2026?
Output rose 1.2% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, and fell 0.1% from September 2025, ISTAT said.
Did Italy industrial production beat expectations?
Yes. The consensus forecast was a 0.7% monthly rise, so the actual 1.2% gain beat it by 0.5 points.
Why did Italian output rise in September?
It mostly rebounded from a weak August, led by capital goods up 1.3% and intermediate goods up 1.2%.
How did Italian industry do in Q3 2026?
Output in the third quarter was 0.4% lower than in the second quarter, despite the strong September monthly gain.
Which sectors fell the most over the year?
Chemicals dropped 8.3% year on year in September 2026. Textiles fell 4.5% over the same period.
When is the next Italy industrial production release?
ISTAT publishes the October 2026 figures on 11 December 2026 at 10:00 Rome time, which is 09:00 UK time.
How did the FTSE MIB react to the data?
The index was 0.17% lower at 10:46 CET, and we found nothing tying the move to the data.
Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
- With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- The Analysis is prepared by an analyst (hereinafter “Author”). The Author Admirals is an employee /a contractor for Admirals. This content is a marketing communication and does not constitute independent financial research.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
- Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Sources
- Industrial production, September 2026, ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Industrial production 09/2026 (PDF), ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Calendario comunicati 2026 (PDF), ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Produzione industriale, agosto 2026, ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Prezzi alla produzione dell'industria e delle costruzioni, settembre 2026, ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Preliminary estimate of GDP, Q3 2026 (PDF), ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Produzione industriale, dicembre 2025 (PDF), ISTAT, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Industria, Istat: a settembre produzione +1,2% mese, -0,1% anno, Il Diario del Lavoro, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Istat, a settembre produzione industriale in aumento dell'1,2%, Italpress, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Borse oggi in diretta, 11 novembre 2026, Milano Finanza, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Produzione industriale in ripresa a settembre, ma il terzo trimestre resta negativo, Teleborsa, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Dati macro di oggi, 11 novembre 2026, Cicli e Asc Trading, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Briefing generale di preapertura 11 novembre 2026, Cicli e Asc Trading, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Borsa: Milano apre in rialzo, +0,79%, ANSA, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Borsa: Milano accelera (+0,9%), ANSA, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Lo spread tra Btp e Bund apre in calo a 103,4 punti, ANSA, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Strait of Hormuz shutdown: implications for Europe, Euronews, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Eurozone inflation accelerated to 4% in October, GMK Center, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Eurozone inflation rises to 4.0% in October, Stock Analysis, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026, ECB, accessed 11 November 2026.
- ECB hikes by 25bp to 2.5%, Continuum Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- ECB rate decision, December 2026, Finance Calendar, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italian manufacturing PMI (Oct) 49.4, Newsquawk, accessed 11 November 2026.
- French manufacturing PMI final (Oct) 49.5, Newsquawk, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italy manufacturing sector returns to contraction, Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Eurozone manufacturing growth remains solid in October, Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Germany manufacturing PMI unrevised in October, Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italy manufacturing confidence hits highest since 2023, Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italy industrial production MoM, Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italy stock market (FTSE MIB), Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Euro (EUR/USD), Trading Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Production in September 2026, Destatis, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Industrial production, September 2026, INSEE, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Euro area industrial output down 0.5% in August 2026, SteelOrbis, accessed 11 November 2026.
- EU industrial production m/m, MetaTrader economic calendar, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Prometeia warns Italian industry faces Q4 stagnation, FinTech Global, accessed 11 November 2026.
- The autumn schedule of ratings agency assessments, Il Foglio, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Analisi tecnica: indice FTSE MIB del 9/11/2026, Teleborsa, accessed 11 November 2026.
- FTSE MIB a novembre: analisi e livelli chiave, Traderlink, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Chart EUR/USD update: choppy in broad range, Continuum Economics, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Italian industrial production ended 2021 on a soft note, ING THINK, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Industria: Istat, produzione dicembre 2022, L'Adige, accessed 11 November 2026.
- Industria, nel 2023 la produzione cala del 2,5%, LaPresse, accessed 11 November 2026.
- La produzione industriale nel 2024 cala del 3,5%, ItaliaOggi, accessed 11 November 2026.
- FTSE MIB, Wikipedia, accessed 11 November 2026.
- U.S. Dollars to Euro Spot Exchange Rate, FRED, accessed 11 November 2026.
