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Market Analysis: UK inflation and the Fed rate decision puts the GBP/USD in focus this Wednesday

March 20, 2019 10:30

GBP/USD economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events March 20, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

Today could possibly be a big day for the GBP/USD, and we may see a break above 1.3400. This upward trend began last Monday, when House of Commons Speaker John Bercow blocked another planned Brexit vote of UK prime minister Theresa May, saying that the deal needs to be "fundamentally different" for another such vote.

That said, today's main economic events for GBP/USD will be the release of the inflation rate data at 9:30am GMT, and the FED rate decision at 6pm GMT.

Yesterday, we learned that UK unemployment rate fell to a 44-year low, at 3.9%, while the total number of unemployed fell by 35K with employment increasing by 222K, the biggest three-month rise since November 2015. Some market participants may see a small chance for an upbeat in inflation today back towards 2%.

If we get to see such a reading, combined with a dovish Fed stance in the evening, a significant push towards and above 1.3400 is very likely - and would activate the region around 1.3600/3650 as a target on the upside in the coming few days.

In general, the GBP/USD picture remains bullish in the short-term as long as the currency pair trades above 1.2950:

GBP/USD daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on GBP/USD Daily chart (between December 18, 2018, to March 19, 2019). Accessed: March 19, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the GBP/USD fell by 5.9%, in 2015, it fell by 5.4%, in 2016, it fell by 16.3%, in 2017, it increased by 7.4%, in 2018, it fell by 5.6%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 22.9%.

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