TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Guidance Is the Week's AI Demand Test
TSMC Q3 2026 earnings are due on Thursday 15 October 2026. The earnings call starts at 14:00 Taiwan time, which is 06:00 GMT and 07:00 in the UK. Revenue is already known. TSMC's monthly reports put third-quarter sales at a record NT$1,494.2 billion, up 50.9% year on year (XenoSpectrum).
Analysts polled by LSEG expect net profit of about NT$741 billion to NT$746 billion, a rise of roughly 64% to 65% (TrendForce). That would be a sixth straight record quarter, according to investingLive. The real test sits elsewhere. Markets are likely to focus on gross margin first. They may also weigh fourth-quarter guidance and the 2027 outlook against fresh doubts about AI spending.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- TSMC earnings at a glance: the key answers
- TSMC earnings date and call time
- What is TSMC Q3 revenue? The number is already out
- TSMC earnings expectations: profit and margins
- TSMC Q4 guidance and the 2027 outlook
- How much of TSMC revenue is AI?
- Why AI demand fears returned: the OpenAI revenue shock
- How do TSMC earnings affect Nvidia and the chip sector?
- Tariffs and the US expansion question
- TSMC stock technical analysis
- TSMC earnings scenarios (illustrative)
- TSMC analyst price targets
- Key events this week
- TSMC earnings: what traders often watch
- Risks to keep in mind
- Conclusion: a record that still has to prove itself
- Frequently Asked Questions
- When does TSMC report Q3 2026 earnings?
- What time is the TSMC earnings call in the UK?
- What is TSMC Q3 revenue?
- How much is TSMC Q3 net profit expected to be?
- What is TSMC gross margin guidance?
- How much of TSMC revenue is AI?
- Why did AI stocks fall before TSMC earnings?
- How do TSMC earnings affect Nvidia?
The timing is delicate. On 8 October a report on OpenAI revenue knocked the Nasdaq Composite down 1.25% and chip stocks down 3.4% (Wealth Professional). So TSMC now carries a bigger question. Is AI chip demand still running ahead of supply?
TSMC earnings at a glance: the key answers
The table below sums up what is known and what is still open before Thursday.
Source: TSMC Investor Relations, XenoSpectrum, investingLive, StockAnalysis, Earnings Watcher. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The chart below shows the New York-listed TSM ADR, the share class that trades in US dollars during New York hours.
TSMC earnings date and call time
TSMC will hold its third-quarter earnings conference on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 14:00 Taiwan time, according to TSMC Investor Relations. The company observes a quiet period from 5 October to 14 October. During that window it avoids contact with investors.
TSMC earnings call time in your time zone
The UK stays on BST until 25 October, so the call lands early on Thursday morning in London.
Source: TSMC Investor Relations, time-zone conversion by Admirals.
Why the call matters more than the release
TSMC already publishes revenue every month. The September report came out on 8 October (TSMC). As a result, any surprise on Thursday is more likely to come from profit margins and guidance. Management's comments on demand also carry weight.
What is TSMC Q3 revenue? The number is already out
September revenue was NT$511.86 billion. That was 0.6% below August and 54.6% above September 2025 (TSMC September 2026 Revenue Report). Revenue for January to September reached NT$3,898.73 billion, up 41.1%.
Source: TSMC, XenoSpectrum (sum of monthly reports). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The quarter was also 17.6% above the NT$1,270.4 billion booked in April to June. In US dollars, Reuters put revenue at about US$46.71 billion, as cited by TrendForce.
How the revenue compares with guidance
In July TSMC guided Q3 revenue of US$44.6 billion to US$45.8 billion at NT$32 per dollar. Converted at that rate, the actual figure beat the top of the range by about 1.95% (XenoSpectrum).
Source: TSMC Investor Relations, TrendForce. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The September figure was also about 5.9% above the top of the range analysts expected. Analysts had pencilled in NT$444.8 billion to NT$483.2 billion for the month, according to Economic Daily News as cited by TrendForce.
TSMC earnings expectations: profit and margins
With sales known, the TSMC earnings preview narrows to profit and margins. The two main consensus numbers differ slightly. The LSEG SmartEstimate gives more weight to analysts with stronger forecasting records, according to investingLive.
TSMC Q3 net profit consensus
Source: TrendForce, investingLive, Hudson Labs, TSMC. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
A profit above about NT$707 billion would be the highest quarterly profit in TSMC's history, says investingLive. The same report says a result in line with consensus would mark an 11th straight quarter of growth. That would make it another TSMC record quarter.
What the consensus implies for EPS
TSMC earned NT$17.44 per share in Q3 2025, or US$2.92 per ADR (TSMC). That implies about 25.9 billion shares. On that share count, a profit of NT$740.8 billion to NT$746 billion works out at roughly NT$28.6 to NT$28.8 per share.
One ADR represents five ordinary shares, which is consistent with TSMC's reported NT$17.44 and US$2.92 per ADR. At NT$32 per dollar, that is about US$4.46 to US$4.49 per ADR. These are Admirals' own back-of-envelope estimates. The reported figure may differ because of the share count and the exchange rate.
TSMC gross margin guidance: the number that matters most
The guidance for Q3 is 65% to 67%. That sits below the 67.7% achieved in Q2 (TSMC Investor Relations). Two forces drag on margins. The first is the cost of ramping the 2nm process. The second is the higher cost of fabs outside Taiwan.
Source: TSMC, TSMC Investor Relations, Hudson Labs, TechNews. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
TSMC has warned that the 2nm ramp may dilute margins by 2 to 3 percentage points over the full year, according to BigGo Finance. XenoSpectrum reports that chief financial officer Wendell Huang put the hit to Q3 gross margin at about 3 to 4 points. This margin dilution is why a margin near the top of the range could matter more than another revenue record.
TSMC Q4 guidance and the 2027 outlook
TSMC Q4 guidance is likely to draw close attention on Thursday. In July the company raised its 2026 growth target to above 40% in US dollar terms, from at least 30% (BigGo Finance).
What Morgan Stanley expects
On 6 October Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating and lifted its target to NT$3,088 from NT$2,988 (TechNews). Its forecasts set a high bar for TSMC's guidance.
Source: TechNews, 6 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
From a US$46.7 billion Q3 base, growth of 10% to 15% points to roughly US$51.4 billion to US$53.7 billion in Q4. That is an Admirals calculation from the figures above.
TSMC capex 2026 and 2027
In July TSMC raised its 2026 capex range to US$60 billion to US$64 billion, from US$52 billion to US$56 billion. Consensus had been about US$58 billion (BigGo Finance). Heavier spending supports future capacity. It also weighs on free cash flow in the short run.
For 2027, Morgan Stanley pencils in capex of US$75 billion to US$80 billion (TechNews). Markets have often read a big capex jump in two ways. Some see it as proof of demand. Others see a cash drain.
Pricing power and 2027 price rises
TSMC pricing power is a key support for margins. Q2 wafer average selling price rose 7.8% quarter on quarter to US$9,271 (BigGo Finance). Any comment on 2027 price rises could shift margin forecasts. A cautious tone could do the same in the other direction.
How much of TSMC revenue is AI?
TSMC does not report AI revenue directly. The closest proxy is high-performance computing (HPC), which includes AI accelerators but also other chips.
Source: XenoSpectrum, based on TSMC's Q2 2026 earnings presentation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
HPC rose 20% from the previous quarter. Smartphones fell 4% (XenoSpectrum). Because HPC is wider than AI, the 66% share overstates pure AI exposure.
TSMC CoWoS and the packaging bottleneck
TSMC CoWoS is the advanced packaging step that joins processors and memory into one AI accelerator. Analysts say demand for it remains strong (investingLive). BigGo Finance describes CoWoS as the industry's primary bottleneck (BigGo Finance).
What C.C. Wei said in July
At the Q2 2026 earnings call on 16 July, chief executive C.C. Wei said: "It will be a long time before we can meet customer demand." The quote was reported by BigGo Finance. The same report says 3nm lines were running above 100% utilisation.
The revenue record is already public. Thursday's reaction is more likely to hinge on whether TSMC repeats that tight-supply message after the OpenAI news.
Why AI demand fears returned: the OpenAI revenue shock
The sell-off began with one figure. OpenAI told investors its annualised revenue was close to US$50 billion at the end of September. That was about US$20 billion below figures that had circulated earlier (Wealth Professional).
Part of the gap is accounting. OpenAI does not count sales made through cloud partners as revenue, as reported by investingLive. Even so, the news revived worries about circular AI spending between model makers and chipmakers. For background on the company, see our guide to OpenAI stock.
What happened on 8 October
Source: Wealth Professional, StockAnalysis. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The Nasdaq move was its worst session since mid-August. Chipmakers had gained more than 80% in 2026 before that day, according to Wealth Professional. That rally may have left less room for disappointment.
The counter-argument from UBS
UBS takes the other side. It says recent industry data still point to robust demand for AI compute (investingLive). The bank expects average hyperscaler cloud revenue growth of 58% in the September quarter, up from 48% in June. It also warns that worries over growth and financing could cause bouts of volatility.
Samsung shows how high the bar is
Samsung's preliminary third-quarter numbers offer a warning about expectations. Operating profit jumped almost ninefold. Yet the shares fell.
Source: The Herald Business. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Analysts had trimmed forecasts as the won strengthened, says The Herald Business. For TSMC, the episode suggests that a record can still disappoint when the market expects more. Shares of Samsung and SK hynix both slipped after the release (The Herald Business).
How do TSMC earnings affect Nvidia and the chip sector?
TSMC makes leading-edge chips for most of the big AI designers. Its guidance therefore often moves chip stocks well beyond Taiwan (Crypto Briefing).
Source: Crypto Briefing, TrendForce.
Analysts cited by Central News Agency expect Q4 revenue to climb again on demand for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform and 2nm chips (TrendForce). Our Nvidia stock forecast looks at the customer side of the same story.
ASML reports the day before
ASML reports on Wednesday 14 October, before the market opens. It guided Q3 sales of €11.0 billion to €12.0 billion with a gross margin of 55% to 57% (ASML via SEC). Options imply a move of about ±6.1% (Earnings Watcher). ASML's tone on orders may set the mood for TSMC a few hours later.
Tariffs and the US expansion question
Policy risk often sits in the background of TSMC calls. Three threads matter this week.
Section 232 semiconductors tariff
A 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips took effect on 15 January 2026 under Section 232 (GHY International). It covers chips such as Nvidia's H200 and AMD's MI325X. Wide exemptions apply, including chips for US data centres.
TSMC Texas expansion
Economic Daily News reported that TSMC may plan a second US hub with up to six advanced fabs, possibly near Dallas (TrendForce). The cost could exceed the US$265 billion committed to Arizona. TSMC has not confirmed the plan. Analysts also expect questions about the Texas plan during the call, according to investingLive.
What is Terafab?
Terafab is a chip-making project in Grimes County, Texas. It brings together Tesla and SpaceX, and Musk's AI company xAI is also a backer. Its first phase carries an investment of about US$16.8 billion (Crypto Briefing). Intel joined in April 2026 as the first manufacturing partner, using its 14A process.
On 3 October Elon Musk confirmed early talks with TSMC. Intel shares fell 4% that day. Intel later said it remains involved (Crypto Briefing). In the long run, Terafab ties could add a large customer for TSMC. They could also create a new rival.
TSMC stock technical analysis
The TSM ADR closed at US$453.31 at 16:00 ET on 9 October. That was 6.7% below the record close of US$485.80 on 5 October (StockAnalysis). The pullback took four sessions. The steepest daily fall came on 8 October, after the OpenAI news.
At that close, the price sat near its 20-day average of closes, around US$450.5. The broader trend since August has been upward so far, with closes rising from about US$406 on 3 August.
TSM key levels
Source: StockAnalysis daily closes, averages calculated by Admirals. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
TSM earnings implied move
Options give a rough guide to the size of the expected move, but they do not show its direction.
Source: Earnings Watcher. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The last move of -3.8% followed the July results (Earnings Watcher). TSMC then beat its own guidance, yet the stock fell. This suggests that high expectations can turn good news into a weak reaction.
TSM ADR performance over five years
The five-year record gives context to the recent rally. It includes a steep fall in 2022.
Source: Digrin, cross-checked with ChartRow. Price change excludes dividends and is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
TSMC earnings scenarios (illustrative)
The scenarios below are illustrative. They describe how markets could react, based on the levels above. They are not predictions or trading recommendations.
Illustrative scenarios built by Admirals from TechNews forecasts and Earnings Watcher options data. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Potential positives and potential risks
A balanced view weighs both sides before the numbers land.
Source: BigGo Finance, TechNews, investingLive.
TSMC analyst price targets
Brokers lifted their Taipei targets after the July call. These targets predate the 8 October sell-off and may have changed since.
Source: TechNews, 17 July 2026, TechNews, 6 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Broker targets are third-party opinions and do not represent the view of Admirals. They can be cut quickly when guidance disappoints.
Key events this week
TSMC sits in a crowded week. Inflation data and rival chip results may move the sector before Thursday.
Source: Earnings Watcher, investingLive, TSMC, Federal Reserve.
Markets expect headline CPI to rise to about 3.7% from 3.4%, with core inflation steady at 2.4% (investingLive). Read our US CPI September 2026 scenarios for more detail. Times for each release are also on the economic calendar.
Rates add a second risk
The US 10-year Treasury yield recently hit a 24-year high. It stood near 5.23% on 8 October (Wealth Professional). Higher yields tend to weigh on richly valued tech stocks. Our weekly yields digest covers the move.
TSMC earnings: what traders often watch
Earnings days can bring sharp gaps and fast price swings. Traders often prepare a plan before the release. The points below describe common practice, not advice.
- Many traders compare the gross margin with the 65% to 67% guidance range first.
- The Q4 revenue guide is often set against the roughly US$51.4 billion to US$53.7 billion range implied by Morgan Stanley.
- Comments on AI customers and order timing have often moved the stock more than the headline profit.
- Some traders wait for the US cash open before acting, since the call ends before New York trading begins.
- Others watch ASML and US CPI on Wednesday, because both can shift sentiment ahead of the call.
Ways traders gain exposure to TSMC
Admirals offers CFDs on shares and indices. It also offers CFDs on Forex and commodities. Its contract specifications list a TSMC CFD under the symbol #TSM, based on the NYSE-listed ADR. Availability can depend on the client's region and account type.
You can read more about CFDs on shares and the CFDs on indices that track the wider tech sector. The platforms on offer include MetaTrader 5. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Managing risk around earnings
- Position size matters more on earnings days, because gaps can skip past stop-loss levels.
- A stop-loss order may help manage risk, but it may not fill at the chosen price in a fast market.
- Leverage magnifies both gains and losses on CFDs.
- Spreads can widen around major releases.
For a wider view of the sector, see our guides to semiconductor stocks and to semiconductor ETFs. If the EPS maths above is new to you, our guide to earnings per share explains it.
Risks to keep in mind
- Revenue already beat guidance, so the market may need a strong outlook to react positively.
- Customer concentration in AI chips can amplify any sign of slower orders.
- The 2nm ramp and overseas fabs may weigh on margins for several quarters.
- A stronger Taiwan dollar can reduce reported margins, since guidance assumes NT$32 per dollar.
- A hot US CPI print could lift yields and hit tech valuations before Thursday.
- Tariff policy and cross-Strait tension remain long-term risks for the stock.
Conclusion: a record that still has to prove itself
TSMC's third quarter looks like another record on revenue. Analysts expect profit to grow around 64% to 65%. Yet the market has already seen the sales figure, and the OpenAI news has made investors more cautious.
That shifts the focus to margins and guidance on Thursday morning. Gross margin shows the cost of the 2nm ramp. The Q4 guide shows whether demand is still accelerating. Comments on 2027 show whether the AI build-out has room to run. A strong outlook could ease the recent doubts. A cautious one could deepen them across the chip sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does TSMC report Q3 2026 earnings?
TSMC reports third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday 15 October, with the earnings call at 14:00 Taiwan time.
What time is the TSMC earnings call in the UK?
The call starts at 07:00 UK time on 15 October, which is 06:00 GMT and 02:00 in New York.
What is TSMC Q3 revenue?
Third-quarter revenue was NT$1,494.2 billion, up 50.9% year on year and about 2% above the top of guidance.
How much is TSMC Q3 net profit expected to be?
Analysts expect about NT$741 billion to NT$746 billion, roughly 64% to 65% above the same quarter last year.
What is TSMC gross margin guidance?
TSMC guided a third-quarter gross margin of 65% to 67%, below the 67.7% it reported for the second quarter.
How much of TSMC revenue is AI?
TSMC does not disclose AI revenue directly. High-performance computing, which includes AI chips, made up 66% of Q2 2026 revenue.
Why did AI stocks fall before TSMC earnings?
A report that OpenAI's annualised revenue was about US$20 billion below earlier figures revived doubts about AI spending.
How do TSMC earnings affect Nvidia?
TSMC makes Nvidia's leading AI chips, so its guidance on demand and packaging capacity can also move Nvidia shares.
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