How to trade seasonal patterns in precious metals, today: Silver

Today, we want to focus on a bullish seasonal pattern in Silver.

After recent losses, mainly driven by this month's sharp rise in 10-year US yields (the sustainability of which is in question, since the overall economic outlook for the US hasn't brightened at all), the "re-inversion" of the 2-10-year yield curve was mainly initiated by the Non-QE-QE program announcement from the Fed.

That said, mid- to long-term Long engagements in precious metals like Gold or Silver became more interesting from a risk-reward perspective over the last few days.

With that in mind, the seasonal bullish window in Silver between November 20 - 29, which has developed over the last 16 years, puts the advantage in the precious metal on the long-side and delivers a potential trading setup.

Seasonal Pattern in Silver

The key parameter of this seasonal bullish pattern is as follows: for 13 of the last 16 years, between November 20 and November 29, Silver saw an average gain of 0.41 USD.

In the remaining three years, it dropped on average only 0.20 USD, while the maximum loss was 0.39 USD and the maximum drawdown was 0.47 USD.

Trade the Seasonal Pattern: Silver

And now the key question: how could we trade this?

Here's the plan:

1. After identifying the profitable seasonal window, we buy Silver on the closing price of the starting date on November 20 (22:59 CET).
2. We identify the maximum loss within the seasonal period. Then, have a look at the daily chart and the ATR(14) indicator.
   
   If the maximum loss is above the ATR(14) reading, round it up to the next round number and use it as worst-case-stop.
   If the maximum loss is below the ATR(14) reading, use the ATR(14) as your stop-width (rounded up to the next round number).
   
3. We Look at the average gain of the seasonal pattern, and place the take profit at this distance from your entry point.
4. If the trade is not stopped out, or it does not reach its take profit within the seasonal period, end the trade market on the closing price on November 29.

Looking at current market data, since the ATR(14) in Silver on a daily time frame is currently trading around 0.36 USD, while the maximum loss of the window was 0.39 USD, our worst-case stop will be placed based on a maximum loss 0.40 USD away from our entry price.

Meanwhile, the average gain of the seasonal pattern is 0.41 USD within this period. So, after entering the trade on the closing price of November 29, we would add 0.41 USD to get our take profit level.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Silver Daily chart (between March 21, 2018, to November 15, 2019). Accessed: November 15, 2019, at 21:00 GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Silver fell by 23.4%, in 2015, it fell by 12.8%, in 2016, it increased by 13.0%, in 2017, it increased by 6.4%, in 2018, it fell by 10.0%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 24.0%.

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