Tesla and Meta After the Bell: What the Q3 Reports Could Mean for TSLA, META and the Nasdaq 100
Tesla and Meta earnings land today, Wednesday 21 October 2026, after the US close. Meta's call starts at 4:30 pm ET (21:30 UK). Tesla's webcast follows at 5:30 pm ET (22:30 UK). This is a preview written before both reports. Every Q3 earnings figure below is an estimate or a company outlook. Only the Q3 delivery numbers, published on 2 October, are actual data.
Two numbers are likely to set the tone. For Meta, it is any early signal on 2027 capital spending. For Tesla, it is automotive gross margin. The backdrop is tense. The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.5% in the week to 16 October, its worst week since June, as an AI sell-off hit chip stocks.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- Tesla and Meta Earnings Today: The Short Answer
- Why Did the Nasdaq Fall Last Week?
- Meta Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: What to Watch
- Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: What to Watch
- Tesla vs Meta: Side-by-Side Before the Bell
- What the Q3 Reports Could Mean for the Nasdaq 100
- Illustrative Scenarios for the Stocks and the Nasdaq 100
- Technical Levels Traders Often Watch
- Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets
- Five-Year Performance: TSLA and META vs QQQ
- Trading Earnings With CFDs: What Traders Often Watch
- Key Takeaways
- Frequently Asked Questions
- What time does Meta report earnings?
- What time does Tesla report earnings?
- What are the Tesla Q3 2026 estimates?
- What are the Meta Q3 2026 estimates?
- How much will Meta stock move after earnings?
- Will Tesla and Meta earnings move the Nasdaq?
- Why is Meta stock down this week?
- Why did the Nasdaq fall last week?
Tesla and Meta Earnings Today: The Short Answer
Both companies report after the 4:00 pm ET close. The first full cash-session reaction comes on Thursday 22 October at 9:30 am ET (14:30 UK). Options markets price a move of about 6.9% for META and 7.0% for TSLA in either direction. The figures come from Earnings Watcher data from 20 October for META and TSLA.
Source: Meta IR, Tesla IR, TIKR, CMEG (Meta EPS), Earnings Watcher. Estimates as of 19 to 20 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The short version is simple. Markets have punished heavy AI spending without visible returns in recent weeks. A large 2027 capex signal from Meta, or a further margin squeeze at Tesla, could extend that sell-off. Firm numbers on both could ease it.
Why Did the Nasdaq Fall Last Week?
The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,140.03 on Friday 16 October. That was a weekly loss of 4.5%, the worst since June. The figure refers to the Nasdaq Composite. A weekly figure for the Nasdaq 100 was not verified for this preview.
What Drove the AI Sell-Off
Reports linked much of the sell-off to debt. Worries about borrowed money funding AI data centres hit CoreWeave debt hard. CoreWeave shares fell about 25% in the week. Its 2031 bonds yielded more than 16%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF dropped about 10% over the same days.
Macro data added pressure. September CPI came in at 3.7% year on year. PPI rose 6.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield held above 5%. Brent crude traded near $110 a barrel.
Source: AP via La Nación (16 Oct), AP via La Nación (19 Oct), AP via La Nación (20 Oct), TS2. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The Fed Adds Another Layer
The Fed raised rates by 25bp in September. CME FedWatch data showed roughly 81% odds of a hold on 28 October, as cited by StockWireX on 8 October. December hike odds stood near 74% on 16 October, per TS2. High yields make distant tech profits worth less today. That is one reason long-duration growth stocks have been sensitive.
Where the Stocks Stand Before the Reports
Markets steadied this week. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% on 19 October and was flat on 20 October. TSLA stock bounced about 5.4% over those two sessions. Meta stock kept sliding.
Source: Gotrade (TSLA, 16 Oct), MarketBeat (TSLA, 20 Oct), Gotrade (META, 14 Oct), Gotrade (META, 19 Oct), Admirals META.US page, ChartRow. The QQQ change is shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Tesla came into the week after a rough stretch. It closed at $382.70 on 9 October and slipped to $354.72 a week later, per Beinsure. Meta set a 52-week high of $779.82 on 24 September, then fell back. Its close of about $694 on 20 October sat roughly 6.6% below its 12 October close of $742.96, as listed by TIKR. The five-year table further down puts these swings in context.
Meta Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: What to Watch
Meta enters the report with a clear guide and a crowded debate. Revenue is the easy part to model. Spending is the hard part. Admirals' own Meta stock analysis for October 2026 covers the longer-term story behind the shares.
Meta Revenue Guidance and Consensus
In its Q2 release, Meta guided Q3 revenue to $61bn to $64bn. Analysts expect about $63.4bn, above the midpoint, as noted by TIKR. That would be growth of roughly 24% on the $51.24bn of Q3 2025.
Source: Meta Q2 2026 results release, TIKR, Meta Q3 2025 results, CMEG (EPS consensus). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The Q4 revenue guide may matter more than the Q3 print. Muse, Meta's personal AI agent, launched on 8 September. So Q3 holds only about three weeks of it, as TIKR points out.
Meta Capex 2027: The Number Everyone Is Guessing
Meta has guided 2026 capex to $130bn to $145bn, per its Q2 2026 results release. It spent $50.92bn in the first half. That leaves $79bn to $94bn for the second half. Q2 alone came to $31.08bn.
Meta has not given a Meta capex 2027 figure. The estimates vary widely.
Source: TIKR, Gotrade. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CFO Susan Li spoke on the Q2 follow-up call. "We are supply constrained as it pertains to compute, and we expect that to be the case for the foreseeable future," Li said. The quote comes from the Meta Q2 2026 follow-up call transcript. Markets may read that as a sign of higher spending ahead.
Meta Costs and Free Cash Flow
Spending is already squeezing profits. In Q2, costs rose 55% year on year. That figure included $2.40bn of legal charges and $1.18bn of severance. Operating margin fell to 31% from 43%, per the Q2 2026 release. Free cash flow came to only $784m. Meta still held about $90.3bn in cash and marketable securities, against long-term debt of $83.66bn at 30 June.
Meta $10 Billion Legal Charge and GAAP EPS
Meta said in August it expected to record a legal expense of about $10bn in Q3. It relates to a multi-state teen-safety settlement, as reported by TS2. This charge could push GAAP EPS far below adjusted EPS. Headlines may mix the two.
Meta Adjusted EPS vs GAAP EPS
Adjusted EPS usually excludes one-off items, which may include this settlement. GAAP EPS includes them. Traders often compare the adjusted figure with consensus. The Admirals guide to earnings per share explains how the measure works.
Muse and Other Revenue
Muse Wonder models followed on 12 October. Early data are mixed. Hunterbrook reported slowing downloads, as noted by TIKR. Meta's "other revenue" grew 73% in Q2. Its pace tonight could hint at whether AI products are starting to pay.
Tesla Q3 Earnings Preview: What to Watch
Tesla published its own analyst consensus on 19 October. Twenty-three brokers fed into it. The company-compiled consensus shows flat revenue and thin margins.
Tesla Consensus Estimates for Q3 2026
Source: Tesla IR, Q3 2026 Earnings Consensus, 19 Oct 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Other trackers sit lower. Zacks expects adjusted EPS of $0.43, down about 14% year on year. It sees revenue of $27.79bn, as cited by BloFin Academy. Hudson Labs has revenue near $27.57bn.
Tesla Margin Pressure: The Metric in Focus
Tesla margin pressure is the issue many analysts watch most closely. In Q2 2026, total gross margin was 16.8% against 19.4% expected, per BloFin Academy. Automotive gross margin excluding emissions credits fell to 16.3% from 19.2% in Q1, according to the Q2 2026 call transcript. Tesla said one-off warranty and tariff benefits in Q1 did not repeat. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed estimates of about $0.52, as reported by investingLive.
Source: BloFin Academy, Q2 2026 call transcript, Tesla IR. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CFO Vaibhav Taneja spoke on the Q2 call. "Commodity price increases and interest rate changes all continue to add to our costs," Taneja said. He added that capex "will grow for the next two to three years as we expand our robotaxi fleet." Both quotes come from the Q2 2026 call transcript.
Tesla Deliveries Beat Expectations, Storage Missed
One part of Q3 is already public. On 2 October, Tesla deliveries beat expectations. Energy storage fell short. Deliveries were still 2.1% below Q3 2025, as noted by BloFin Academy.
Source: Tesla Q3 2026 production and deliveries, BloFin Academy. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Deliveries above production point to an inventory drawdown. That can help cash flow. It can also mean discounting, which would weigh on margins.
Tesla Capex and the $30bn Credit Lines
Tesla said on its Q2 2026 call that capex would exceed $25bn this year. Its compiled consensus puts 2026 free cash flow at -$9.72bn. On 29 September, Tesla signed a $20bn term loan. It also added revolving lines of $8bn and $2bn, as reported by Not a Tesla App. The facilities were undrawn at signing.
Robotaxi Plans
Tesla said on its Q2 2026 call that robotaxi had expanded to seven US markets. News on new cities could matter to the stock as much as the quarterly numbers.
Non-Operating Noise
Tesla marks its SpaceX stake to market, per BloFin Academy. Those moves shift GAAP net income. They leave adjusted EPS untouched.
Both reports test one question. Can heavy AI and autonomy spending show a path to profit before investors lose patience? The answer tonight could influence Nasdaq sentiment in the days that follow.
Tesla vs Meta: Side-by-Side Before the Bell
Set side by side, Tesla and Meta look like two different businesses with one shared risk. Both are spending heavily on AI. Meta funds it from advertising profits. Tesla funds it with thin margins and new credit lines.
Source: Meta Q2 release, Tesla IR, Earnings Watcher (META), Earnings Watcher (TSLA). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
What the Q3 Reports Could Mean for the Nasdaq 100
The two stocks carry real weight in the index. Tesla was about 3.3% of the Nasdaq 100 at the June 2026 filing, ranking eighth. Meta sat outside the top ten. The top ten together made up 47.8%, per ChartRow.
Why Both Reports Reach Beyond Two Stocks
Its capex budget makes Meta a major buyer of AI chips. A higher capex outlook could lift chipmakers. It could also revive AI capex fears among investors focused on returns. Tesla's call can also affect sentiment towards growth stocks more broadly. The Admirals overview of the Magnificent 7 stocks explains how these names drive the index.
Big Tech Earnings Over the Next Two Weeks
Source: Federal Reserve, BEA, Gotrade, BloFin Academy. UK clocks go back on 25 October, so the UK to ET gap is four hours from 26 to 31 October.
Admirals' Alphabet Q3 2026 earnings preview covers the next big test on 28 October. The economic calendar lists the macro releases in the same window.
Illustrative Scenarios for the Stocks and the Nasdaq 100
The table below is illustrative. It shows how markets could react under different outcomes. Nothing in it is known in advance.
Source: Admirals analysis based on TIKR, Tesla IR and BloFin Academy. Illustrative scenarios only. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Upside and Downside Factors
Source: Meta Q2 release, TIKR, Not a Tesla App, TS2, StockWireX.
Technical Levels Traders Often Watch
Levels below come from charts and reports dated early to mid-October. Moving averages drift daily, so traders often re-check them on a live chart.
Tesla Stock Technical Analysis: Key Levels
Source: Beinsure, Tradingpedia, JournalArta, Gotrade. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
A ±7.0% move from $373.71 gives a rough band of $348 to $400. That band spans both the $350 support and the $390 resistance.
Meta Stock Technical Analysis: Key Levels
Source: Admirals META.US page, Gotrade, Tradingpedia. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
A ±6.9% move from about $694 points to a band of roughly $646 to $742.
Implied Moves vs Past Reactions
Source: Earnings Watcher (TSLA), Earnings Watcher (META), data as of 20 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Realised moves have often exceeded the priced move. TSLA's peak earnings-day move exceeded the priced move in 11 of its last 16 reports, per Earnings Watcher. META's did so in 12 of 16. Those counts use intraday peaks. On a closing basis, three of the six moves in the table stayed inside the priced range. Both priced moves sit below each stock's ten-year average earnings-day move of ±9.6% for TSLA and ±10.4% for META.
Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets
Targets span a wide range. That spread itself signals high uncertainty.
TSLA Stock Forecast: Analyst Price Targets
Source: MarketBeat, Beinsure. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Meta Stock Forecast: Analyst Price Targets
Source: 24/7 Wall St., Gotrade, TIKR. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Analyst targets are opinions. They are often revised after earnings.
Five-Year Performance: TSLA and META vs QQQ
Recent swings look large in isolation. The five full calendar years below show how volatile both stocks have been.
Source: ChartRow TSLA returns, ChartRow META returns, ChartRow Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), ChartRow Nasdaq Composite (ONEQ ETF). Period: 1 January 2021 to 20 October 2026. TSLA prices are split-adjusted. The META figures and both ETF figures include dividends and are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Both stocks lost about two-thirds of their value in 2022. Both then more than doubled in 2023. Tesla is down this year. Meta is only modestly higher.
Trading Earnings With CFDs: What Traders Often Watch
Earnings after the bell carry particular risks. Traders who follow these reports often plan around timing and liquidity first.
Earnings Gap Risk and Thin Liquidity
Both reports come after the cash close. Prices can gap at Thursday's open past any stop level. Earnings gap risk is higher when extended-hours liquidity is thin. Spreads also tend to widen during those hours.
Points Traders Often Check Before the Reports
- Traders often confirm the exact report and call times in their own time zone.
- Many compare headline numbers with consensus within the first minutes.
- Some wait for the call commentary before reacting to the headline numbers.
- Position size is often scaled to the implied move.
- Stop-loss orders can help manage risk, although gaps can cause slippage.
- Traders often watch the Nasdaq 100 for a read-through to other AI names.
Trading CFDs on Shares and Indices With Admirals
Admirals offers CFDs on shares and indices. It also offers CFDs on Forex and commodities. A share CFD lets traders speculate on price moves in both directions without owning the stock. Index exposure is available through CFDs on indices. The guide on how to buy Tesla stock explains the different ways to gain exposure to Tesla. Trading is available on MetaTrader 5.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
A demo account lets traders test an earnings plan first. It uses virtual funds. Results may differ from live trading.
Key Takeaways
- Tesla and Meta report Q3 2026 after the US close on 21 October.
- Meta's call starts at 4:30 pm ET and Tesla's webcast at 5:30 pm ET.
- Meta's key swing factor is any early signal on 2027 capex.
- Tesla's key swing factor is automotive gross margin after Q2's drop to 16.3%.
- Options price moves of about 7% for both stocks.
- The Nasdaq Composite lost 4.5% last week, its worst week since June.
- Microsoft and Alphabet follow on 28 October, the same day as the Fed decision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meta report earnings?
Meta reports after the US close on 21 October. The Meta earnings call starts at 4:30 pm ET (21:30 UK).
What time does Tesla report earnings?
Tesla publishes results after the close on 21 October. The Tesla earnings call starts at 5:30 pm ET (22:30 UK).
What are the Tesla Q3 2026 estimates?
Tesla's compiled consensus sees revenue of $28.34bn and a gross margin of 17.9%. Non-GAAP EPS is expected at $0.45.
What are the Meta Q3 2026 estimates?
Analysts expect revenue near $63.4bn and adjusted EPS near $6.77. Meta guided revenue to between $61bn and $64bn.
How much will Meta stock move after earnings?
Options priced about ±6.9% on 20 October. After Q2, Meta closed down 8.0% against a priced move of ±8.7%.
Will Tesla and Meta earnings move the Nasdaq?
They could. Tesla held 3.3% of the Nasdaq 100 in June, and Meta's capex can shape sentiment towards AI stocks.
Why is Meta stock down this week?
Meta has slipped since mid-October amid the AI sell-off and spending worries. The shares closed near $694 on 20 October.
Why did the Nasdaq fall last week?
AI debt worries and a chip sell-off hit the Nasdaq Composite. Higher-than-expected inflation data and yields above 5% added pressure.
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