SpaceX Debt: $40bn for Nvidia Chips as Terafab Prepares for Construction
SpaceX seeks $40 billion of new borrowing to buy Nvidia AI chips, the Financial Times reported on 6 October 2026. The reported plan combines about $10bn of bank loans with about $30bn of investment-grade bonds. Apollo is expected to lead, and the deal could close in 2027. SpaceX has not confirmed it.
Elon Musk also said at a weekend event that his companies will probably learn to make chips "better than anyone". He added that it may take years, investingLive reported. Texas filings point to a 1 December 2026 construction start for Terafab, the chip plant planned by Tesla and SpaceX with Intel as a partner.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- SpaceX Debt Deal at a Glance
- What Is in the Reported SpaceX $40bn Debt Package?
- How Much Debt Does SpaceX Have?
- Why the SpaceX CDS Hit a Record
- Nvidia on Every Side of the Deal
- SpaceX Q2 Earnings: What Pays for the Chips?
- What Is Terafab?
- Which Stocks Does Terafab Touch?
- SpaceX Stock Price After the Debt Report
- SpaceX Stock Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
- SpaceX Stock Forecast: What Analysts Say
- Treasury Yields and the Fed
- Key Dates to Watch
- SpaceX Debt Scenarios: Illustrative Paths
- Pros and Cons of the SpaceX Debt Plan
- How Traders Often Approach SpaceX Stock News
- Frequently Asked Questions
This article sets out what is known about the SpaceX debt deal, how the credit market has reacted and what Terafab means for Intel and Tesla. It also covers the stock levels and the dates that traders often watch. All prices are regular-session closes on Friday 9 October 2026 at 4:00 pm ET unless stated otherwise.
SpaceX Debt Deal at a Glance
The short answers come first. The details follow in the sections below.
- SpaceX is reportedly seeking about $40bn of new debt, mostly to pay for Nvidia chips for its AI data centres.
- Total debt was already $39.7bn at the end of June 2026, so the full package would take it to roughly $80bn.
- The five-year credit default swap (CDS) on SpaceX reached a record of about 197.6 basis points after the report, Billionaires.Africa reported.
- Nvidia holds about 122.8 million SpaceX shares and would also be the seller of the chips.
- Terafab's first phase is valued at $16.8bn, with construction due to start on 1 December 2026 according to Texas filings.
- SPCX closed at $162.57, about 20.4% above the $135 IPO price and about 28.0% below its June peak, StockAnalysis shows.
Source: investingLive, TIKR, The Next Web. Figures as reported up to 12 October 2026.
What Is in the Reported SpaceX $40bn Debt Package?
The package was first reported by the Financial Times, citing people familiar with the talks. Reuters followed with its own report, and Bloomberg said the talks were at an early stage and could end without a deal, according to a summary by Billionaires.Africa.
How Is the $40bn Split?
The reported structure has two parts. Banks would provide the smaller share. Bond investors would provide the larger one.
Source: investingLive, citing the Financial Times. Coupon, spread and maturity had not been reported as of 12 October 2026.
Who Is Lending SpaceX $40 Billion?
Apollo is expected to lead the debt sale and place it with a broad group of investors. Pimco is among a small group of lenders in talks. Neither firm has commented publicly on the terms.
The pricing questions remain open. The coupon, the spread over US Treasuries and the maturities have not been published. Those details usually appear only when a bond deal is formally launched.
Why Is SpaceX Buying Nvidia Chips?
The money would pay for Nvidia chips for SpaceX's AI computing business. That business runs the Colossus data centres. They power Grok. Anthropic and Google are the main customers renting capacity there, according to investingLive.
On the Q2 2026 earnings call, Musk said SpaceX would build exclusively on Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, as summarised by Nasdaq. Compute capacity stood at 1.4 GW at the end of June. Management aims for more than 2 GW by the end of 2026.
How Big Is $40bn Next to SpaceX's Spending?
The sum is large even by AI standards. TIKR estimates that it equals about a fifth of Nvidia's data-centre revenue in fiscal 2026.
Source: TIKR, Nasdaq. Ratios calculated by Admirals from the reported figures. The run-rate is an illustration, not a forecast. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
How Much Debt Does SpaceX Have?
SpaceX was already a heavy borrower before this report. SpaceX total debt rose from $30.6bn at the end of March to $39.7bn at the end of June 2026, TIKR notes. A full $40bn add-on would bring the total to about $80bn.
The company also holds a large cash pile. It had about $93.5bn of cash plus $6.5bn of short-term investments at the end of June, mostly from the IPO, according to the Q2 summary.
Source: TIKR, Nasdaq. The last column is an illustration, not a forecast. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
SpaceX Debt Rating From the Three Large Agencies
All three large agencies rated SpaceX investment grade on 18 June 2026. Moody's flagged heavy AI spending and sustained negative free cash flow. It also pointed to reliance on Starship V3 and governance concentrated around Musk, Euronews reported.
Source: Euronews, 19 June 2026. Ratings can change at any time.
BBB and Baa1 sit in the lower half of the investment-grade scale. On the S&P scale, BBB sits two notches above BB+, where high-yield territory begins. That matters for insurers and pension funds, which often have limits on lower-rated debt.
The $25 Billion Debut Bond and the 2056 Tranche
SpaceX sold a $25bn debut bond in late June 2026, Quartz reported. Part of the money repaid a $20bn bridge loan. The longest tranche has since struggled.
Source: Tiger Brokers, 15 July 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why the SpaceX CDS Hit a Record
Credit markets reacted faster than the stock. After the report, the five-year SpaceX CDS rose by as much as 16.7bp to about 197.6bp, a company record, based on ICE Data Services figures cited by Billionaires.Africa. The same report said SpaceX bonds hit their weakest level since the June listing.
A CDS works like insurance against default. A higher price means investors pay more to protect themselves. At about 197.6bp, the market-implied default probability over five years was roughly 16%, the same report said.
What the Credit Market Is Saying
Three concerns stand out in the coverage. The first is the size of the borrowing next to a quarterly net loss. The second is the timing, with US yields near their highest levels since 2002, Trading Economics data show.
The third concern is concentration. A large share of AI revenue comes from a small number of customers. Nvidia also appears on several sides of the deal, as explained below.
The AI Debt Bubble Debate
SpaceX is part of a wider wave of AI borrowing. Some investors call it an AI debt bubble, while others see funding for long-lived assets with contracted demand.
Data from the sources linked in each row, to 8 October 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Goldman Sachs has cited AI-related corporate issuance as one force pushing Treasury yields higher, investingLive reported. This is one bank's view, and other forces also move yields.
Nvidia on Every Side of the Deal
Nvidia plays several roles at once. It holds about 122.8 million SpaceX shares from its 2025 investment in xAI. At the 9 October close of $162.57, that stake was worth about $20.0bn.
Source: TIKR, Nasdaq. Stake value calculated by Admirals at the 9 October close.
The 10 August agreements cover compute-financing platforms with a combined target above $500bn, TIKR reports. Critics call this circular, because the chip seller helps fund its own customers. Supporters say vendor financing is common in capital-heavy industries.
NVDA stock closed at $229.28 on 9 October, down 0.52% on the day, StockAnalysis data show. Its 52-week range runs from $164.27 to $243.37.
SpaceX Q2 Earnings: What Pays for the Chips?
The debt case rests on the AI business growing fast enough to service it. SpaceX Q2 earnings, released on 4 August 2026, showed rapid growth with a net loss, Nasdaq's summary of the call shows.
Source: Nasdaq, 4 August 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
SpaceX Capex and Free Cash Flow
Of the $18.4bn Q2 capex, $15.8bn went on AI compute. Management guided a similar level in each of the next two quarters, according to the call summary. That implies a run-rate of about $74bn a year.
CFO Bret Johnsen said on the call that new compute deployments pay back in under a year, Nasdaq reported. That is a company claim. It has not been tested over a full cycle. Moody's, by contrast, flagged sustained negative free cash flow in June, Euronews reported.
Valuation Context
SpaceX had a market value of about $2.21trn on 9 October, based on 13.57bn shares, StockAnalysis shows. The forward P/E stood at about 103. Readers new to the measure can see how the price-earnings ratio works.
What Is Terafab?
Terafab is a planned semiconductor complex run as a joint venture of Tesla and SpaceX, with Intel as a partner since April 2026. The plan puts chip fabrication under one roof with packaging and testing, investingLive reports.
The main goal is high-volume production of the Tesla AI5 chip. A second line would make radiation-hardened chips for computing in orbit. About one quarter of output would go to Tesla, and about three quarters to SpaceX space-based data centres, The Next Web reports.
Where Is Terafab Being Built?
The main site is in Grimes County, Texas, about an hour north-west of Houston. The plan covers 100 million square feet in phases on about 3,000 acres. SpaceX controls more than 13,000 acres in the area, according to investingLive.
A smaller research fab in Austin, costing about $3bn, broke ground in April 2026, Optimusk reports.
Terafab Timeline
Source: Optimusk, investingLive, The Next Web. Planned dates can change. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Independent analysis suggests chips on Terafab's own process may only arrive in the 2030s, Optimusk notes. SpaceX's IPO filing calls Terafab a "general framework" that either side can walk away from, The Next Web noted.
How Much Will Terafab Cost?
Estimates vary widely, because each figure covers a different scope.
Source: investingLive, The Next Web, Optimusk. Cost estimates are not a reliable indicator of final spending.
Local incentives are also large. They include a full county property-tax abatement for 2027 to 2036 and about $1.66bn of school-district incentives, Optimusk reports.
Musk: Chips "Better Than Anyone"
Speaking at an event on X on 10 and 11 October, Musk said his companies will probably learn to make chips "better than anyone" given time. He also called chipmaking one of the hardest things to do in the world, investingLive reported. He has argued that global fab capacity covers only about 2% of what Tesla and SpaceX need.
Musk's companies have never manufactured chips at scale. Terafab is a non-binding framework, and Morgan Stanley has said first output may not come before mid-2028, Optimusk reports. On these timelines, any payoff from Terafab would come after the reported 2027 close of the debt package.
Terafab and TSMC
On 3 October Musk wrote on X that talks with TSMC were "just discussions, but something may come of it". Four days later he wrote that his companies would build and run the fab themselves. He added that TSMC could perhaps sublease part of Terafab, TIKR reports.
Intel shares fell on the TSMC talk and recovered after the clarification. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan told Bloomberg that Intel remains involved, Stocktwits reported. Musk has said Terafab will use Intel's 14A process, TIKR notes.
Local Friction in Grimes County
About 900 residents signed a petition about the project. SpaceX has also sued the Texas attorney general and Grimes County to block the release of Terafab records, KBTX reports. A state lawmaker's records request is due a response from the Governor's office around 13 October.
Which Stocks Does Terafab Touch?
Terafab links three listed companies. The table sums up the possible effects reported so far.
Source: investingLive, Stocktwits. Qualitative summary by Admirals.
Intel: The Foundry Angle
Intel is often described as the most direct beneficiary. Intel foundry revenue was $5.8bn in Q2, up 31% year on year, and the operating loss narrowed to $2.1bn, Stocktwits reports. External customers include AWS and Apple.
Intel stock closed at $104.70 on 9 October, down 2.22%, StockAnalysis data show. Its 52-week range is $32.89 to $142.35, a sign of how volatile the shares have been. The Intel Q3 2026 earnings are expected on 29 October.
Tesla: More Capex, Later Payoff
For Tesla, Terafab adds a large capex commitment with a payoff several years away. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3 2026, its SEC filing shows. Tesla notes in the same filing that deliveries are only one measure of its financial performance.
TSLA stock closed at $382.70 on 9 October, up 2.05%, StockAnalysis data show. The average analyst target is $397.88 as of 12 October. Analyst targets are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Tesla Q3 2026 earnings are due on 21 October after the close. For background on the company, see this guide on Tesla shares.
TSMC and Samsung: A Long-Term Question
The risk for existing foundries looks long-term. Musk has said his companies will keep buying from current suppliers while Terafab is built, investingLive reported. TSMC reports its Q3 results on 15 October, according to TIKR, which may bring questions about any sublease role.
SpaceX Stock Price After the Debt Report
SpaceX stock rallied into the report and then gave back part of the gain. The table shows the daily closes around the news.
Source: StockAnalysis price history, regular-session closes at 4:00 pm ET. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 9 October volume of 92.3m shares was close to the 20-day average of about 95.5m. Over the week from 2 to 9 October the stock rose about 2.3%.
SpaceX IPO Price and All-Time High
SpaceX listed on Nasdaq on 12 June 2026. The SpaceX IPO price was $135. The shares reached an all-time high of $225.64 on 16 June, then fell to a 52-week low of $104.83 on 3 August, StockAnalysis shows. The close of $162.57 sits about 20.4% above the IPO price and about 28.0% below the peak.
SPCX joined the Nasdaq-100 on 7 July 2026 under fast-entry rules, Crypto Briefing reported.
Five-Year Context for Related Stocks
SpaceX has traded for about four months, so it lacks a full 12-month period of price history. The table shows the previous five full calendar years for the three listed companies most closely linked to the deal.
Source: CompaniesMarketCap Intel, CompaniesMarketCap Tesla, CompaniesMarketCap Nvidia, calendar-year share price changes, 2021 to 2025, plus 2026 to the 9 October close. Figures are as published by CompaniesMarketCap, whose method can differ from year-end close-to-close changes. Returns are shown before taxes and costs, which may vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
SpaceX Stock Technical Analysis: Levels to Watch
The 2 to 6 October breakout failed near $176, and the debt headline pulled the price back to the $160 area. The levels below are calculated from daily data. They are illustrative and can change quickly.
Source: Admirals calculations from StockAnalysis daily data, 31 July to 9 October 2026. RSI is based on about 50 sessions and is approximate. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Some traders watch whether the price holds the $160 area, which is above all three moving averages. Others treat a daily close below the 20-day average near $154 as a sign of weakness. Chart-based traders may also watch $172 and the $176 high. These levels describe past prices and do not predict future moves.
SpaceX Stock Forecast: What Analysts Say
Analysts are split. The MarketBeat consensus of 45 analysts is "Moderate Buy", with an average target of $220.06 as of 9 October, compared with the last close of $162.57. Targets range from $75 to $800, MarketBeat shows.
Source: MarketBeat, Quartz, as of 12 October 2026. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Thirty of the 45 ratings are Buy or higher. Hold ratings number 9, and Sell ratings number 6. The wide spread of targets shows how uncertain the valuation is. Bulls focus on AI revenue growth, while bears focus on debt and cash burn.
Treasury Yields and the Fed
The debt arrives in a hard market for long-dated bonds. The US 10 year yield was about 5.24% on 9 October, close to its highest level since 2002, Trading Economics shows.
Source: Trading Economics, market pricing on 9 October 2026. Trading Economics items from the same day give different December odds, so the range is shown. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Readers who want the basics of this market can see how traders approach government bonds.
Key Dates to Watch
The next two months are busy. UK clocks go back on 25 October and US clocks on 1 November, so the time gap is four hours in that week.
Source: Federal Reserve, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Motley Fool (lock-up estimates), Optimusk, StockAnalysis Tesla, StockAnalysis Intel, TIKR (company dates). Estimated dates may change.
A larger lock-up tranche of 28% is estimated to unlock two trading days after the Q3 results, according to Motley Fool estimates. Full lock-up expiry, including Musk's shares, is expected around 13 June 2027. The economic calendar lists the macro releases in one place.
SpaceX Debt Scenarios: Illustrative Paths
The scenarios below are illustrative. They link possible triggers to price levels already shown in this article. They are not predictions.
Scenario analysis by Admirals based on the data in this article. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Pros and Cons of the SpaceX Debt Plan
Source: Nasdaq, Euronews, Tiger Brokers. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Main Risks to Watch
- Leverage could climb faster than cash flow if AI demand slows.
- Long-dated bond prices are sensitive to the 10-year yield near 5.24%.
- Anthropic and Google are the main customers for the AI capacity, which concentrates the revenue base.
- Governance is concentrated around Musk, as Moody's noted.
- Terafab has never produced chips and remains a non-binding framework.
- Lock-up expiries add potential share supply up to June 2027.
- The debt report is unconfirmed, and the talks could collapse or change.
How Traders Often Approach SpaceX Stock News
This section describes common approaches. It is general information and does not suggest any trade.
What Traders Often Watch
- Many traders watch the CDS and bond spreads, since credit moved before the stock in this episode.
- Some focus on deal headlines, such as the final size of the package and its pricing.
- Others watch the 10-year yield and the 28 October FOMC decision.
- Earnings dates often matter, especially Tesla on 21 October and Intel on 29 October.
- Technical traders often mark $160 as near-term support and $176 as resistance.
Managing Risk Around Big Headlines
Stocks with a short history often move sharply on news. Traders often use stop-loss orders and smaller position sizes to manage risk. A stop-loss order can be filled at a worse price than the one set, especially when prices gap. Some prefer to wait until a headline is confirmed by the company.
A guide to semiconductor stocks gives wider context on the chip sector. Background on the company itself is in this guide to SpaceX stock.
Trading With Admirals
Admirals offers the opportunity to trade CFDs on shares of US companies, as well as CFDs on indices. Availability of specific instruments can vary, so check the contract specifications first. Trading is available on MetaTrader 5.
A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading. It can help traders test a plan before using real money. This guide explains what CFD trading is.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is SpaceX borrowing $40 billion?
SpaceX reportedly wants about $40bn to buy Nvidia chips for its AI data centres, which rent computing capacity.
Who is lending SpaceX $40 billion?
Apollo is expected to lead the package, and Pimco is reportedly among a small group of lenders in talks.
How much debt does SpaceX have?
SpaceX had $39.7bn of total debt at the end of June 2026, up from $30.6bn in March.
Why did the SpaceX CDS hit a record?
Investors paid more for default protection after the debt report, pushing the five-year CDS to about 197.6bp.
What is Terafab?
Terafab is a planned chip plant in Texas run by Tesla and SpaceX, with Intel as a partner.
When will Terafab be finished?
Texas filings show construction starting on 1 December 2026, with completion planned for the end of 2028.
How much will Terafab cost?
Phase one is valued at $16.8bn, while county paperwork mentions up to about $119bn across all planned phases.
When are SpaceX Q3 earnings?
SpaceX has not announced a release date, though market estimates point to around 17 November 2026.
Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
- With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- The Analysis is prepared by an analyst (hereinafter “Author”). The Author Admirals is an employee /a contractor for Admirals. This content is a marketing communication and does not constitute independent financial research.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
- Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.
Sources
- SpaceX seeks $40 billion in debt led by Apollo to fund Nvidia chip order, FT says, investingLive, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX seeks $40 billion to buy Nvidia chips, FT reports, The Star (Reuters), accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX Wants $40 Billion to Buy Nvidia Chips, and Nvidia Is on Every Side of the Deal, TIKR, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX reportedly seeks $40 billion in loans, debt to buy Nvidia chips, Benzinga, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Elon Musk's SpaceX wants to borrow $40 billion for Nvidia chips and its bonds just hit a record for risk, Billionaires.Africa, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Weekend: Musk says $15 billion Terrafab can make chips better than anyone, given time, investingLive, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Musk breaks ground on a $16.8bn chip fab, The Next Web, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Terafab timeline and size, Optimusk, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Musk says SpaceX will run Terafab, what that means for TSMC, TIKR, accessed 12 October 2026.
- INTC stock jumps overnight as CEO says Intel will keep working with Musk's Terafab, Stocktwits, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Terafab site takes shape as Musk's companies face growing transparency questions, KBTX, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX Q2 earnings call highlights, Nasdaq, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX lands investment-grade credit ratings as shares tumble from record high, Euronews, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX $25 billion investment-grade bond sale, Quartz, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX bond yields surge, Tiger Brokers, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Investors reassess risks as AI financing rattles tech companies, Crypto Briefing, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX joins Nasdaq-100, Crypto Briefing, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX (SPCX) stock price, StockAnalysis, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX (SPCX) price history, StockAnalysis, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Intel (INTC) stock price, StockAnalysis, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Tesla (TSLA) stock price, StockAnalysis, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock price, StockAnalysis, accessed 12 October 2026.
- SpaceX (SPCX) stock forecast and price target, MarketBeat, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley SpaceX price targets, Quartz, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Tesla Q3 2026 production, deliveries and deployments, US SEC, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Intel (INTC) stock price history, CompaniesMarketCap, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Tesla (TSLA) stock price history, CompaniesMarketCap, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock price history, CompaniesMarketCap, accessed 12 October 2026.
- United States 10-year government bond yield, Trading Economics, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Meeting calendars, statements and minutes, Federal Reserve, accessed 12 October 2026.
- Consumer Price Index release schedule, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed 12 October 2026.
- The precise timeline for when SpaceX insiders can sell shares, Motley Fool, accessed 12 October 2026.
