RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Cash Rate Rises to 4.60% in September 2026
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026. It was the fourth RBA rate hike this year, and all nine Board members voted in favour. The new rate applies from 30 September.
The written RBA monetary policy statement left room for further increases. At the press conference, Governor Michele Bullock sounded more cautious, and the Australian dollar slipped below US$0.70. Markets priced roughly a one-in-three chance of another hike in November, according to Reuters.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Below we explain what the Board said and why it acted. You will also find the key numbers behind the move and the dates that may shape the next RBA rate decision.
Table of Contents
- RBA Decision Today at a Glance
- RBA Statement September 2026: What the Board Said
- Bullock Press Conference: Why the Tone Shifted
- AUD/USD After RBA Decision: Why the Aussie Slipped
- Why the RBA Hiked: The Numbers Behind the Decision
- RBA Rate History 2026: Four Hikes So Far
- Who Feels the Rate Hike? Winners and Losers
- How Markets Reacted to the RBA Rate Hike
- RBA Rate Forecast: What Banks and Markets Expect
- RBA Scenarios Before the RBA November Meeting
- Australia Economic Calendar: Key Dates
- What Market Participants May Monitor Next
- Frequently Asked Questions
- Sources
RBA Decision Today at a Glance
Source: RBA media release, 29 September 2026; RBA cash rate target.
At 4.60%, the Australian cash rate sits at its highest level in almost 15 years. Reuters noted that the 100 basis points of tightening in 2026 have more than reversed the 75 basis points of cuts made in 2025.
RBA Statement September 2026: What the Board Said
The official text is called the Statement by the Monetary Policy Board. You can read it in full on the RBA website. Here are its main messages in plain English.
Why the Board Raised the Cash Rate
- Inflation is still too high, and some risks flagged in August have started to show up.
- The conflict in the Middle East has widened and pushed energy prices well above the RBA's August assumptions.
- Demand linked to artificial intelligence is lifting global prices for technology goods.
- Firms told RBA liaison staff that costs are rising and that many are raising prices or plan to.
- Higher fuel costs have already spread into the prices of other goods and services.
The last point matters most. It suggests the RBA now sees the energy shock spreading through the wider price basket.
What the Board Said About the Australian Economy
- Output growth has slowed, although the June quarter was a little stronger than expected.
- Consumer spending is easing gradually, broadly in line with RBA forecasts.
- House prices have fallen in most capital cities, and new home loans have dropped noticeably.
- Business investment and business borrowing are both growing strongly.
RBA Forward Guidance
The Board repeated that it will do what it considers necessary to bring inflation back to target. It said this could mean "increasing the cash rate target further if needed". It will also stay attentive to incoming data and the evolving outlook.
Taken alone, the text reads like a hawkish RBA statement. The press conference changed that picture.
Bullock Press Conference: Why the Tone Shifted
The written statement was firm. The tone at the press conference was softer, and markets reacted to that gap.
Asked about underlying inflation near 3.6%, Bullock said "what is the hope here, is that this will be restrictive enough", as reported by ActionForex. According to Reuters, she then admitted she could not be sure it would be enough.
Key Points From the RBA Press Conference
Sources: FXStreet and ActionForex.
In currency terms, the hike lasted about an hour. That is shorter than a typical Sydney coffee queue on a Monday morning.
AUD/USD After RBA Decision: Why the Aussie Slipped
AUD/USD edged up to about 0.7021 straight after the 2:30pm AEST decision. It then fell to around 0.6977 within an hour of the press conference starting, according to ActionForex.
Reuters later reported the Aussie down 0.4% at US$0.6989. Three-year government bond yields fell 6 basis points to 4.974%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Why a Rate Hike Can Weaken a Currency
- The hike was almost fully priced, so the decision itself brought little new information.
- Markets had priced a cash rate above 5% by May 2027, which is more than Bullock was willing to signal.
- The US Federal Reserve is also raising rates, which limits the AUD's yield advantage.
- High oil prices tend to support the US dollar through inflation fears and safe-haven demand.
RBA vs Fed Rate Differential and Other Central Banks
Source: Admiral Markets analysis of the Fed decision and the weekly market digest.
The gap between the RBA and the Fed is roughly 60 to 85 basis points, depending on which end of the Fed range you use. Our breakdown of the latest Fed rate hike explains why US policy matters for every dollar pair.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Levels in Focus
The levels below come from the published technical view of ActionForex. We show them for information only. They are third-party observations, and price can move through any of them.
Source: ActionForex, 29 September 2026.
ActionForex also noted that four-hour RSI was near 30. Such readings are often described as stretched, although momentum can stay weak for some time.
Admiral Markets offers CFDs on currency pairs, including AUD/USD. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage.
Why the RBA Hiked: The Numbers Behind the Decision
Trimmed Mean Inflation Is Stuck at 3.6%
The ABS CPI release for July showed headline inflation at 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June. The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred gauge of underlying inflation, held at 3.6%.
Source: ABS media release on July 2026 CPI.
The Australia inflation rate has been above target for five of the last six years, AMP chief economist Shane Oliver told Reuters. That long run of high inflation helps explain why the Board acted before the August data.
The Australia CPI August 2026 release is due on 30 September at 11:30am AEST. Reuters said economists expect headline inflation near 4.1% and the trimmed mean near 3.6%.
Australia Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.6%
Source: ABS Labour Force, August 2026.
Unemployment rose because more people started looking for work. The ABS also advised some caution with the August seasonally adjusted data, because of changes to how the survey is collected.
Australia GDP and Productivity
Sources: ABS national accounts media release; productivity figure as reported by CommBank and Treasury.
Annual growth of 2.1% sits just above the roughly 2% pace the RBA sees as sustainable without adding to inflation, Reuters reported. Weak productivity keeps that speed limit low.
Australia House Prices Keep Falling
Source: Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026 release.
Sydney values are now falling faster than at the same stage of the 2022-23 correction, when they were 6.6% below peak. The RBA said housing prices had fallen in most capital cities, although it still raised rates.
Oil and AI: The Global Backdrop
Brent crude has risen close to 20% since the RBA's August meeting, according to Reuters. Supply disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept the Brent oil price near or above $100 for much of September, as our weekly market digest noted.
Westpac estimates the data centre investment boom could be worth up to A$175 billion, Reuters reported. That spending adds to domestic demand at a time when the RBA wants demand to cool.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers blamed the war for much of the price pressure. He told reporters that Australian workers are paying a heavy price for a conflict they did not choose.
RBA Rate History 2026: Four Hikes So Far
Sources: RBA media releases; Trading Economics.
The RBA hiking cycle 2026 began in February with the first increase since November 2023. The split votes in March and May have given way to a unanimous Board.
Who Feels the Rate Hike? Winners and Losers
Higher Australian interest rates affect households and businesses in different ways. The table sets out possible effects on each side.
Mortgage Repayments After the RBA Hike
The table shows illustrative monthly repayments on a 30-year principal and interest loan. We assume a variable rate that rises from 6.50% to 6.75% after this hike. Your own rate and loan term will change the result.
*Assumes a rate of 5.75% before the first 2026 hike. Figures are rounded and exclude fees. They are for illustration only and are based on an Admiral Markets calculation.
Borrowers in Sydney may now open their banking app with one eye closed.
Some borrowers review whether to fix or stay variable after a hike. The right choice depends on personal circumstances, so independent advice may help.
How Markets Reacted to the RBA Rate Hike
Australian Bond Yields
Sources: Reuters (3-year yield); Trading Economics snapshot, 29 September 2026 (other yields). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 2-year yield sits above the cash rate. That suggests markets still price some chance of further tightening.
ASX 200 and Sector Moves
The ASX 200 was about 0.2% lower after the decision, near 8,668. The index closed at 9,005.9 in early September, which leaves it down around 4% over the month. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sources: market data compiled on 29 September 2026. Sector sensitivity to rates can change over time, and historical patterns do not predict future moves.
Gold Price and Oil
Source: market data compiled on 29 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Gold is often described as a perceived safe-haven asset. Its price can still fall sharply, as rising real yields showed this month.
RBA Rate Forecast: What Banks and Markets Expect
Economists disagree on whether 4.60% will prove to be the peak. The table shows published views after the September decision.
Bank views: Savings.com.au and Aussie. Market pricing and the AMP view: Reuters. These are third-party forecasts. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
CBA said a steady 3.6% trimmed mean in August would point to quarterly trimmed mean inflation of about 1.0% in the September quarter. The RBA's August forecasts implied about 0.84%. The timing of any next RBA rate hike is still debated among economists.
The RBA may revise its inflation forecasts in the November Statement on Monetary Policy, given that oil prices are above the levels it assumed in August.
RBA Scenarios Before the RBA November Meeting
The scenarios below are illustrative and rest on the assumptions shown. They are not forecasts, and we do not assign probabilities to them.
Scenario analysis is illustrative. Actual outcomes may differ materially.
Australia Economic Calendar: Key Dates
Sources: RBA and ABS release calendars.
The 28 October CPI release is a key date on the calendar. You can track each release in the Admiral Markets Forex Calendar.
What Market Participants May Monitor Next
This section lists factors that analysts often watch. It does not suggest what you should do with your money.
- Some traders compare the August trimmed mean with the 3.6% consensus.
- Market pricing for November can shift quickly after each data release.
- Spreads can widen and prices can gap around major announcements.
- Stop-loss orders can help manage risk, although they may be filled at a worse price during gaps.
- A demo account lets you explore a platform with virtual funds, and demo results do not reflect all live trading conditions.
Positioning and Volatility
CFTC data to 22 September showed speculators net short about 46,800 AUD futures contracts. If inflation data surprise higher, some analysts say short positions could be closed quickly, which may add to volatility. A softer result could extend the recent decline.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the RBA decide today?
The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, with a unanimous vote.
What is the current RBA cash rate?
The cash rate target is 4.60% from 30 September 2026, its highest level since November 2011.
Why did the RBA raise interest rates?
Inflation stayed above the 2-3% target, and higher fuel costs began spreading into other prices, the Board said.
Why did the Australian dollar fall after the hike?
The hike was already priced, and Bullock declined to signal another move, so AUD/USD slipped below 0.70.
When is the next RBA meeting?
The next decision is due on 3 November 2026, alongside a new Statement on Monetary Policy from the RBA.
Will the RBA raise rates in November?
Markets priced about a one-in-three chance on 29 September, and the 28 October CPI is a key input.
How much will my mortgage go up?
On our assumptions, a $600,000 loan over 30 years costs about $99 more each month after this hike.
What is trimmed mean inflation?
It removes the largest price rises and falls each period, which gives a steadier read of underlying inflation.
Sources
All sources were accessed on 29 September 2026.
- RBA monetary policy decision of 29 September 2026
- RBA cash rate target history
- ABS media release on July 2026 CPI
- ABS media release on August 2026 labour force data
- ABS media release on June quarter 2026 GDP
- Cotality Home Value Index report for September 2026
- Reuters report on the September 2026 RBA hike via The Standard
- ActionForex analysis of the RBA decision and AUD/USD
- FXStreet report on the Bullock press conference
- Savings.com.au report on how the big four banks responded
- Aussie summary of bank forecasts before the September decision
Analysis completed on 29 September 2026. Market data reflect the European morning session on the same day and may have changed since publication.
The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
