Market News: US and UK GDP Revised Higher as PCE Inflation Comes in Below Forecast
Data as at 1 October 2026. Market performance figures cover 23 September 2026 to 30 September 2026.
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Table of Contents
Key Data to Move Markets This Week
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.2% in the second quarter, revised up from 1.5%. Economists had anticipated that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would remain unrevised. In the first quarter, GDP growth was 2.5%, which was also revised upwards from the previously reported 2.1%. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of the US economy, grew by 3.8% in Q2, revised upwards from 3.4%, significantly higher than the 0.7% reported in Q1 (Reuters).
The UK economy grew faster than initially estimated in the second quarter, cementing its position as the fastest growing G7 economy in the first half of 2026. GDP expanded by 0.5% in the second quarter, revised upwards from 0.4%, slightly slower than the 0.6% recorded in Q1. Economists had been expecting the figure to remain unrevised at 0.4%. The data, released on Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics, also showed that Q2 GDP expanded 1.4% year on year, revised up from the initial estimate of 1.2% (Reuters).
The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, rose by less than expected in August. The PCE price index rose by 3.4% year on year, below the 3.7% which economists had expected. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.0%, lower than the anticipated 3.3%. Following the release, expectations that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its October meeting have increased, with markets now pricing in a 62% chance that the Fed will hold rates in their current range of 3.75%-4.00% (CNBC, CME FedWatch Tool).
US consumer confidence slid to its lowest level since 2014 in September, amidst concerns about prices, fuel costs and the job market. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 81.9 in September, considerably lower than the revised 88.6 in August and well below the analyst consensus of 89.0. Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, noted that references to prices, particularly oil and gas prices, "rose to new heights, reflecting September's surge in fuel costs" (CNBC).
Economic Calendar
A Look at This Week's Market Movers
Patent litigation, disruption in the US credit-scoring industry, artificial-intelligence enthusiasm in Japan and renewed pressure from global bond yields generated some of the most significant market moves this week.
United Therapeutics rallied after winning a key patent dispute, while Fair Isaac fell sharply as policy changes and growing adoption of the competing VantageScore model challenged its long-standing position in US mortgage credit scoring. Among the indices and commodities monitored for this newsletter, JP225 was the strongest positive performer, supported by AI and semiconductor shares, while Silver recorded the largest decline as elevated Treasury yields, a firm US dollar and expectations that US interest rates could remain high weighed on precious metals.
United Therapeutics Corp. #UTHR +10.72%
Most of the move came on Wednesday, when the shares surged 12.55% in a single session.
The catalyst was a significant victory in United Therapeutics' long-running patent dispute with Liquidia. The US District Court for the District of Delaware determined that Liquidia's marketing of Yutrepia for pulmonary hypertension associated with interstitial lung disease, or PH-ILD, infringes claims 1 and 14 of United Therapeutics' US Patent No. 11,826,327. The court also found that Liquidia had failed to prove those claims invalid.
United Therapeutics believes the ruling could entitle it to seek an order requiring the FDA to withdraw Yutrepia's existing approval until labeling excluding the PH-ILD indication can be approved. The company also intends to seek monetary damages for past infringement. The precise final remedy remains subject to further court proceedings.
The ruling could strengthen the competitive position of United Therapeutics' Tyvaso and Tyvaso DPI franchises by potentially restricting Yutrepia's ability to compete in PH-ILD. The reaction illustrates how intellectual-property decisions can materially alter expectations for future pharmaceutical revenues (United Therapeutics).
United Therapeutics Corp. share price (NASDAQ:UTHR), daily chart:
Fair Isaac Corporation #FICO -32.40%
The most severe decline occurred on 29 September, when FICO shares fell 26.52% in a single session.
The immediate catalyst was a significant change in the US mortgage credit-scoring landscape. FHFA Director Bill Pulte announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would move towards a unified mortgage-pricing framework incorporating VantageScore alongside Classic FICO, intensifying concerns that Fair Isaac could lose some of the exclusivity and pricing power it has historically enjoyed in mortgage credit scoring.
That announcement built on an earlier policy change. On 9 September, the FHFA expanded VantageScore 4.0 availability to all approved Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lenders, allowing them to use VantageScore on eligible loans without obtaining prior written approval.
The competitive threat became even more tangible on 28 September, when Rocket Mortgage announced that it would make VantageScore 4.0 its preferred scoring model for all eligible loans. Rocket said it would begin defaulting to VantageScore during the fourth quarter of 2026 after testing indicated that the model enabled more customers to meet credit requirements while reducing credit-scoring costs.
FICO remains deeply embedded in the US lending industry, and the shift does not eliminate the use of FICO scores. Nevertheless, investors are now reassessing how greater competition could affect FICO's volumes, pricing power and long-term economics in the mortgage market.
FICO's decline illustrates how a regulatory and competitive change can challenge a business model that has historically benefited from a deeply entrenched market position. Wider acceptance of alternative scoring systems could introduce greater competition and reduce the exclusivity traditionally associated with FICO in US mortgage lending (US Federal Housing, Rocket Companies).
Fair Isaac Corporation share price (NYSE:FICO), daily chart:
JP225 / Nikkei 225 ≈ +1.32%
Among the indices and commodities monitored for this newsletter, the Admiral Markets JP225 instrument was the strongest positive performer during the 23–30 September measurement period.
One methodological distinction is important: 23 September was a Japanese market holiday for the Autumnal Equinox, meaning there was no official Nikkei 225 cash-market close that day. The +1.32% figure therefore represents the Admiral Markets JP225 instrument, rather than an official Nikkei 225 cash-index close-to-close return.
The Japanese equity market nevertheless finished the period strongly. Technology contributed heavily to the move: Advantest represented 12.39% of the index, Tokyo Electron 8.90% and SoftBank Group 7.75%, while the broader technology sector accounted for approximately 57% of the Nikkei's weight.
Renewed optimism surrounding global AI and semiconductor expenditure supported Japanese technology shares, reinforcing the market's sensitivity to developments in the global AI infrastructure cycle.
Japan remains particularly exposed to semiconductor and AI-investment trends. The Nikkei's unusually large weightings in technology-related companies mean that changes in expectations for global chip demand, data-centre expenditure and AI infrastructure can have an outsized influence on the index (Nikkei).
Silver -6.26%
Silver recorded the largest negative performance among the indices and commodities monitored for this newsletter, based on Admiral Markets Research Terminal prices.
The sell-off reflected a difficult macroeconomic combination for precious metals. Escalating US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices and inflation concerns higher, while the US Treasury sell-off drove the 10-year yield above 5%. The US dollar simultaneously traded near a two-month high.
This produced a challenging transmission mechanism for silver: higher inflation concerns → higher Treasury yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy → greater opportunity cost for holding non-interest-bearing precious metals. A firmer dollar added another headwind because dollar-denominated commodities become relatively more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
The picture moderated somewhat following the latest inflation data. The Federal Reserve's preferred PCE price index increased 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, while core PCE increased 0.2% monthly and 3.0% annually. Despite the more moderate core reading, long-term US yields remained elevated.
Silver has a dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Higher interest rates and the dollar influence its monetary characteristics, while expectations for manufacturing, electrification, solar power and technology demand affect its industrial value. That combination can make silver more volatile than gold when interest-rate expectations move rapidly (Bureau of Economic Analysis).
Silver price (OANDA:XAGUSD), daily chart:
The Week's Central Theme
The four movements illustrate how company-specific catalysts, competitive disruption, artificial intelligence and monetary-policy expectations can create very different outcomes across financial markets.
United Therapeutics demonstrated how a favourable legal decision can materially improve expectations surrounding the competitive position of an established pharmaceutical franchise. Fair Isaac illustrated a different type of disruption: greater acceptance of VantageScore is introducing meaningful competition into a US mortgage market where FICO has historically occupied a particularly strong position. The combination of the FHFA's move towards a unified pricing framework and Rocket Mortgage's decision to make VantageScore its preferred model for eligible loans made that competitive threat considerably more tangible for investors.
At index level, JP225 demonstrated that enthusiasm surrounding AI infrastructure and semiconductor demand remains capable of supporting selected equity markets even while global financing conditions remain restrictive. Japan's unusually high exposure to major semiconductor and technology companies amplifies this relationship.
Silver illustrated the opposite side of the macro environment. Renewed energy-related inflation concerns, elevated Treasury yields and a relatively firm dollar increased the opportunity cost of holding precious metals and contributed to the metal's sharp weekly decline. Although the latest PCE report showed headline inflation of 3.4% and core inflation of 3.0%, US long-term yields remained at historically elevated levels.
The central question for markets therefore remains the interaction between strong structural investment themes such as AI, company-specific disruption and restrictive financing conditions. Higher yields can pressure both equity valuations and precious metals, while legal, technological and competitive developments can still overwhelm the broader macro backdrop.
Data Source: Admiral Markets Research Terminal. Date Range: 23 September 2026 – 30 September 2026. Data Accessed: 1 October 2026. Past performance is not an indicator of future results and should not be considered investment advice.
Sources
Market performance figures come from the Admiral Markets Research Terminal. Economic data and company news come from the sources below.
- Reuters, US second-quarter GDP revised higher amid robust consumer spending, 30 September 2026.
- Reuters, UK economy grew by 0.5% in Q2 2026, ONS says, 30 September 2026.
- CNBC, Fed's preferred inflation gauge for August, 30 September 2026.
- CME Group, CME FedWatch Tool.
- CNBC, US consumer confidence in September, 29 September 2026.
- United Therapeutics, press release on the Liquidia patent ruling, 1 October 2026.
- US Federal Housing Finance Agency, credit scores policy.
- Rocket Companies, Rocket Mortgage makes VantageScore its preferred scoring model on all eligible loans.
- Nikkei Indexes, Nikkei 225 summary, 30 September 2026.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, August 2026.
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