Ifo Business Climate Index September 2026: Forecast and Market Context
The ifo business climate index for September 2026 is due today, 24 September, at 10:30 CEST. That is 09:30 in the UK and 08:30 UTC. Market calendars show a consensus ifo index forecast of 89.0 points, just above August's 88.8.
The survey is one of the most watched gauges of German business sentiment. A reading in line with the forecast would be a fifth monthly rise in a row. The index would still sit below its long-run average of about 96 to 97 points.
This guide explains what the German ifo index measures and how to read it. It also covers how markets such as EUR/USD and the DAX have tended to react in the past.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Key takeaways
- The ifo release time is 10:30 CEST on Thursday, 24 September 2026.
- The consensus forecast is 89.0 after 88.8 in August.
- August was the fourth rise in a row and the highest reading of 2026.
- Markets tend to focus on the gap between the actual figure and the consensus.
- Market convention links a stronger-than-expected reading with a firmer euro, although real reactions vary.
Ifo index today: quick facts
What is the ifo business climate index?
The German ifo index is a monthly survey of business mood in Germany. The ifo Institute in Munich publishes it. The ifo Institute describes it as the most important leading indicator for the German economy.
Think of it as a monthly mood check for German companies. Around 9,000 firms take part, which is a bigger sample than asking the neighbours over the garden fence.
Since April 2018 the survey has included the service sector. Manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail were already part of it.
How the survey works
Each month firms answer two core questions. The first covers their current business situation. The second covers their expectations for the next six months.
For today's business, firms pick a rating on a simple scale from good to poor. For the outlook, they say if they expect things to become more or less favourable. A middle option covers firms that expect little change.
The ifo then weights each answer by the importance of the firm's sector.
How the index is calculated
The ifo first works out a balance. It takes the share of positive answers and subtracts the share of negative ones. The balance can range from minus 100 to plus 100.
The balance is then scaled into an index where the 2015 average equals 100. The headline climate figure is a form of geometric mean of the two balances.
So a reading of 88.8 means firms feel gloomier than they did on average in 2015.
The four parts of each release
- The Business Climate is the headline figure most people quote.
- The ifo current assessment shows how firms rate business right now.
- The ifo expectations index shows what firms expect over the next six months.
- Sector balances show the mood in manufacturing, services, trade and construction.
Source: ifo Institute, August 2026 release. Past data is not a reliable indicator of future readings.
Ifo release time and dates
The ifo release time is 10:30 CEST. In late September Germany is still on summer time, which is UTC+2.
Times shown on third-party calendars can differ. The ifo's own schedule says 10:30, and the ifo is the one pressing the button.
Clocks in Germany and the UK go back on 25 October 2026. From the October release onwards, 10:30 CET equals 09:30 in London.
Ifo index release dates for the rest of 2026
Source: ifo Institute release calendar.
You can follow each date on our Forex Calendar. Our guide on how to use an economic calendar explains the colour codes and columns.
Ifo Business Climate September 2026: the numbers to know
Market calendars show a consensus of 89.0 for September. In August the index came in at 88.8, well above the 87.2 consensus at the time.
Sources: ifo Institute and Investing.com. Consensus via ad-hoc-news. Past data is not a reliable indicator of future readings.
The strong PMI data this week has put extra focus on this release. Different surveys can still point in different directions.
How the index moved in 2026
2026 has been a bumpy year for the index. It fell hard in spring and then climbed for four months.
Source: ifo Institute survey results, first-release and revised figures. Past data is not a reliable indicator of future readings.
January to February: a slow climb
The index held at 87.6 in January. In February it rose to 88.6, its best level since August 2025. The ifo later revised February to 88.4.
The ifo's president, Clemens Fuest, said the German economy was showing the first signs of a recovery.
March to April: the energy shock
In March the index fell to 86.4. Expectations dropped from 90.2 to 86.0.
Fuest said the war in Iran had, for now, ended hopes of an upswing. In April the index slid to 84.4, the lowest reading since May 2020.
May to August: four rises in a row
The index then rose in each of the next four months. August came in at 88.8, well above the 87.2 consensus. Expectations rose to 89.1, while the current assessment reached 88.5.
The ifo said the economy was recovering despite another rise in energy prices.
Longer ifo business climate history
Sources: FXEmpire and TradingView economic data based on ifo figures. Values differ slightly between data providers. Past data is not a reliable indicator of future readings.
Even a reading of 89 would sit well below the long-run average.
Ifo expectations index vs ifo current assessment
The two sub-indices often move apart. The gap between them can hint at where the economy is heading.
In August both parts improved. Expectations at 89.1 sat slightly above the current assessment at 88.5.
Ifo business cycle traffic lights
The ifo also turns its index into a simple signal. It uses a statistical tool called a Markov switching model to estimate the chance that the economy is expanding.
A probability above 66% gives a green light for expansion. A reading below 33% shows red for contraction, and the range in between shows yellow.
The yellow zone works as a buffer where uncertainty about the economy is especially high. You can read the method in the ifo paper on turning points and the traffic light.
The backdrop before the release
Several fresh data points shape the mood ahead of today's ifo survey results.
PMI: a strong September
The HCOB flash composite PMI for Germany jumped to 53.8 in September from 51.8. Analysts had expected 51.8.
Services returned to growth at 52.9. The manufacturing PMI eased to 53.8 from 54.3. S&P Global noted renewed pressure on prices.
Rates and energy
The ECB raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% on 10 September. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said oil is becoming a more important factor in rate decisions. He also kept the door open to further hikes.
Germany's 10-year Bund yield climbed back above 3.5% this week, a level last seen in mid-2009. Market pricing pointed to roughly a 58% chance of an ECB hike on 29 October.
Brent crude traded above $102 a barrel on 23 September.
Sources: HCOB and S&P Global via FXStreet, ZEW, CNBC, Trading Economics, ad-hoc-news. Past data is not a reliable indicator of future readings.
Ifo vs ZEW: two surveys, two audiences
The ZEW asks financial experts about the outlook. The ifo asks the companies themselves.
The ZEW comes out earlier in the month, so some traders treat it as a preview. The two surveys do not always point the same way. In September the ZEW current situation index improved sharply, while its expectations measure barely moved.
Ifo index, EUR/USD and other markets
Markets tend to react to the size of the surprise against the consensus.
EUR/USD
Many economic calendars describe a reading above consensus as positive for the euro and one below it as negative. In practice the reaction can be small, or it can run the other way when other news dominates.
In September 2022, for example, the ifo fell to 84.3 against an expected 87.1. EUR/USD was down only about 0.1% on the day at the time of reporting. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
EUR/USD is one of the currency pairs listed on our Forex products page.
DAX and Bund futures
The release lands about 90 minutes after Xetra opens at 09:00 CEST. Moves in the DAX and Bund futures around the release can be sharp or muted. The size of the surprise and other news both play a part.
For background, read our beginner's guide to DAX CFDs. Details of CFDs on indices, including the DAX, are on our indices page.
ECB expectations
Some analysts see strong survey data as adding to the case for tighter policy while oil stays high. A weak reading may cool those expectations. Nagel has said the ECB decides meeting by meeting.
How markets often read the ifo
These are general market conventions. Actual reactions vary and can run in either direction.
How different outcomes are often read
The table below shows how different outcomes have often been interpreted. It uses the 89.0 consensus and the 88.8 August reading.
These scenarios are illustrative. They are not forecasts, and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. The 0.5-point bands are the author's assumption for illustration. Other news can outweigh the ifo on any day.
What traders often check on release day
Here are points many traders keep in mind around a major release.
- Check the ifo release time in your own time zone before the session.
- Compare the headline with the 89.0 consensus when it comes out.
- Many analysts look beyond the headline to expectations and the services balance.
- Some traders use stop-loss orders to help manage risk, although stops can be filled at a worse price in fast markets.
- Some traders adjust position size around major releases to manage market exposure.
- Spreads can widen and prices can gap in the first minutes after a release.
- A demo account lets you practise with virtual funds, although demo results do not guarantee live results.
- CFDs are leveraged, and leverage can magnify losses as well as gains.
Our forex risk management guide covers position sizing as one way to manage risk. The stop loss and take profit guide explains slippage and price gaps.
You can follow the figure live on our Forex Calendar.
Strengths and limits of the ifo
Like any indicator, the ifo has strengths and limits.
Frequently asked questions
What is the ifo business climate index?
It is a monthly survey of about 9,000 German firms that measures their view of business today and ahead.
What time is the ifo released today?
The September 2026 ifo is due at 10:30 CEST, which is 09:30 in the UK and 08:30 UTC.
What is the ifo index forecast for September 2026?
Market calendars show a consensus of 89.0 points, slightly above the August reading of 88.8 points.
How does the ifo expectations index differ from the current assessment?
The current assessment rates business conditions today. The expectations index covers what firms expect over the next six months.
How does the ifo affect EUR/USD?
Calendars often link a beat with a firmer euro and a miss with a weaker one, though reactions vary widely.
Ifo vs ZEW: what is the difference?
The ifo surveys around 9,000 companies. The ZEW surveys a few hundred financial experts about the six-month outlook.
What are the ifo business cycle traffic lights?
They turn the index into expansion odds. A probability above 66% shows green, while one below 33% shows red.
When is the next ifo release?
The next release is due on 26 October 2026 at 10:30 CET. The ifo lists later dates on its website.
Is a high ifo reading good for the DAX?
The effect is often mixed. Better growth hopes can help shares, while higher bond yields can weigh on them.
Sources
- ifo Institute: ifo Business Climate Index for Germany and release dates.
- ifo Institute: survey results archive.
- ifo Institute: Turning Points and the ifo Business Cycle Traffic Light.
- ZEW: September 2026 economic sentiment press release.
- FXStreet: Germany flash PMI for September 2026.
- CNBC: ECB rate decision and Nagel interview.
- Reuters via Global Banking & Finance: Nagel on oil and rates.
- Trading Economics: Germany 10-year Bund yield.
- Barchart via inkl: ECB rate hike pricing.
- Forex Factory: ifo release history and headlines.
- Investing.com: ifo calendar and consensus history.
- ad-hoc-news: September consensus and Brent on 23 September.
- FXEmpire: long-run ifo statistics.
- FXStreet: September 2022 ifo release and EUR/USD reaction.
All sources were accessed on 24 September 2026.
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