Diesel Shortage October 2026: Why Diesel Prices Hit Records in Europe and Seychelles
Diesel is in its tightest market for years. Two supply shocks have hit at the same time. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out a large share of Russian refining, and Moscow has banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October. Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut Gulf diesel exports to about a quarter of pre-war levels, says the IEA Oil Market Report for September 2026.
For households, the result shows up at the pump first. UK diesel passed £2 a litre for the first time on 2 October, at 200.01p, ITV reported, citing RAC data. The EU average reached a record €2.24 a litre, AFP reported. In Seychelles, the state supplier SEYPEC lists diesel (gasoil) at SCR 25.19 a litre on its price ticker. The same squeeze also reaches deliveries and food. Flights and electricity feel it too.
The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Table of Contents
- The Diesel Shortage in Brief
- What Is Causing the Diesel Shortage?
- Why Diesel Is So Expensive Compared With Crude Oil
- Diesel Prices in Europe
- Diesel Prices in the UK
- Seychelles Fuel Prices
- What the Diesel Crisis Means for Your Wallet
- The G7 and IEA Emergency Oil Release
- Diesel Price Forecast: What Analysts Expect
- Key Dates for Diesel Prices in October and November 2026
- Illustrative Scenarios for Diesel Prices
- ICE Gasoil Technical Analysis
- How Traders Often Approach Oil and Diesel Markets
- Summary
- Frequently Asked Questions
This article explains what is causing the diesel shortage, what it costs in each market and which dates could move diesel prices next. All prices carry a date because they change quickly. Figures were checked on 9 October 2026.
The Diesel Shortage in Brief
The short answers come first. The detail follows in the sections below.
Why is there a diesel shortage?
- Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery on average once every three days in the first eight months of 2026.
- Russia, one of the largest diesel exporters, has banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October 2026.
- Iranian attacks on tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz almost closed for refined products.
- Gulf diesel exports were about a quarter of pre-war levels in August.
- China suspended most of its October fuel exports, which removed another source of supply.
The Gulf and Russia together supplied almost 45% of seaborne diesel trade worldwide before the war. In August their combined net exports were 1.6 million barrels a day (mb/d) below February levels, according to the IEA.
How long will the diesel shortage last?
The timing is uncertain. Some analysts expect tight supply into 2027. Goldman Sachs expects diesel refining margins of about $63 a barrel in the US and $49 in the EU in 2027, OilPrice.com reported on 31 August. Other voices are more hopeful. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said diesel had "likely peaked", Roic News reported. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Key diesel numbers at a glance
Source: ITV/RAC, Ahram Online/AFP, SEYPEC, Nation.sc, Investing.com, S&P Global, Trading Economics, The Vibes/AP. Intraday prices are snapshots taken on 9 October 2026. The sources do not show a time stamp, so prices may have changed since. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Diesel itself lacks a licence-free chart. The Brent crude CFD below shows the crude oil backdrop.
What Is Causing the Diesel Shortage?
Three forces explain most of the move. Two of them come from Russia. Refinery strikes and an export ban have cut its supply. The third is the Hormuz blockade. Thin stocks and shipping costs add to the pressure.
Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries
In the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days, the IEA said, as Kyiv Post reported. The same report counted at least 70 strikes on refineries between January and mid-September. A count of strike attempts gives a higher figure. United24 Media reported close to 200 strikes from January to June 2026. The two counts use different methods, so they should be read separately.
The damage is concentrated where diesel is made. Six large refineries produce roughly 50% of Russian diesel. Three of those six had cut or halted output by mid-September, Kyiv Post reported.
Source: The Deep Dive, Kyiv Post, Industrial Info Resources. Strike data come partly from parties to the conflict.
At least 17 Russian regions have rationed fuel, with limits of 30 to 40 litres per fill, Kyiv Post reported. Politics now shapes the supply outlook too. US President Donald Trump urged Ukraine in September to stop the strikes on diesel plants, Euromaidan Press reported. Kyiv has described refineries as legitimate military targets.
Russia's Diesel Export Ban
Russia has used export bans to protect its home market. The rules come in layers, which makes the 31 October date important. A lapse or an extension could each move prices.
Source: OilPrice.com, The Star/Reuters.
The effect on trade is large. Russian seaborne product exports were 4.57 Mt in August, still 50% below August 2025, OilPrice.com reported. Europe stopped buying Russian diesel in 2023. Even so, the loss matters to Europe. Russian barrels used to supply other buyers, who now compete for the same cargoes from elsewhere.
The Strait of Hormuz Blockade 2026
Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed through the strait, Insurance Business reported. Iran struck at least 12 tankers between 29 September and 5 October, according to the UANI shipping update. Fresh incidents on 3 to 5 October included engine-room fires, the Oman Observer reported.
Source: UANI, IEA, S&P Global, Hydrocarbon Engineering. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
This is how the Strait of Hormuz affects diesel prices. Europe replaced Russian diesel with cargoes from the Middle East and India after 2023. Those are the barrels the blockade now holds back. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in late August that Gulf fuel exports ran at about 40% of pre-war levels, against 70% to 80% for crude, OilPrice.com reported. That is why the shortage sits in refined fuel.
War-risk insurance and freight costs
Shipping through the region now costs far more. War-risk insurance for ships in the strait rose from 0.15% to 0.25% of a ship's hull value before the war to 3% to 10% at the peak. On a $150 million tanker, a 10% rate means $15 million per transit, Insurance Business reported.
Vitol's chief executive Russell Hardy spoke about it at a London conference. He said the conflict "is turning into a shipping crisis", OilPrice.com reported on 8 October.
Thin stocks in the US and China
Inventories offer little cushion. US distillate stocks were 12% below their 5-year average in the week to 2 October, according to Trading Economics. Chinese refiners suspended most October product exports, OilPrice.com reported. A US diesel export ban was also floated in late September. President Trump later said such a ban was "never really on the table", ITV reported.
Why Diesel Is So Expensive Compared With Crude Oil
The diesel crack spread is the gap between the price of diesel and the price of crude oil. It shows how much refiners earn from turning one barrel of crude into fuel. A wide crack means the shortage sits in refining. Crude oil itself is more available.
Source: Investing.com, Trading Economics. The crack is our calculation from the two quoted prices. Both prices are snapshots taken on 9 October 2026 without a time stamp, so they may have changed since. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Physical diesel tells the same story. The Platts 10ppm CIF NWE cargo price hit a record $1,642.25 a tonne on 15 September, in a series that began in 2007. The ARA barge price was $752.25 a tonne on 27 February, before the war, S&P Global reported.
ICE gasoil and heating oil prices
ICE gasoil is Europe's diesel benchmark. Moves of 4% to 7% in one session have been common since mid-September, Investing.com data show.
Source: Investing.com, The Vibes/AP. The 9 October figure is an intraday snapshot without a time stamp. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The longer record puts these moves in context. ICE gasoil fell in each year from 2023 to 2025, so the 2026 rise started from a low base of $622.75 a tonne at the end of 2025.
Source: our calculation from Investing.com monthly data for the front-month contract, using year-end closes from 2020 (420.75) to 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
In the US, NYMEX ULSD (heating oil) futures traded at about $4.79 a gallon on 9 October, Trading Economics data show. Prices have eased from a mid-September peak of about $5.20 a gallon.
Brent Crude 5 Year Performance
Crude oil is the base cost of diesel. The table below puts the 2026 move in context. Brent fell in each year from 2023 to 2025 before the war pushed it higher.
Source: Ship & Bunker (2021), Ship & Bunker (2022), Argaam (2023), Argaam (2024), Yahoo Finance/Reuters (2025), Trading Economics (2026). Annual changes from 2022 are calculated from the year-end closes. Brent is shown for the crude oil backdrop. The 5-year record for ICE gasoil is in the section above. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Diesel Prices in Europe
Europe is especially exposed. It imports diesel, and a large share of its vehicles run on it. The Middle East and India replaced Russian supply after 2023. The Hormuz blockade now cuts into that replacement.
Europe Diesel Price Record: Country Ranking
The EU weekly oil bulletin for the week of 28 September showed the following pump prices. Taxes make up about 40% of the pump price on average across the EU, AFP reported.
Source: fuel-prices.eu, EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, week of 28 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
The 5 October bulletin moved the ranking. The most expensive diesel in Europe was in Finland at €2.553 a litre. Excluding Malta, the cheapest diesel in Europe was in Poland at €1.765, after tax cuts took effect on 3 October. On this source's method, the EU average was €2.149 a litre, 34.8% higher than on 23 February, fuel-prices.eu calculated.
A 50-litre tank cost about €107.45, compared with €79.70 before the war. This series uses a different method from the €2.24 AFP figure above.
What European governments are doing
Source: RegFollower, VATupdate, The Star/Xinhua.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the French release would lower pump prices by 12 to 18 euro cents a litre, The Star reported. Tax cuts help drivers in the short term. They also raise public costs, and they end on fixed dates, so prices could jump when they expire.
Eurozone inflation and the ECB
Fuel is feeding inflation again. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September, the highest since September 2023, Euronews reported. Energy inflation of 18.8% was the key driver, adding about 1.7 percentage points.
Source: Euronews. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Market-implied probabilities are forecasts, and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The currency matters as well. Diesel is priced in US dollars, so a weaker euro raises the local cost. The ECB reference rate was 1.1186 dollars per euro on 8 October, according to the ECB. Readers following the central bank can find background in our note on the ECB meeting accounts published on 8 October.
Diesel Prices in the UK
The UK set an all-time diesel record in late September and crossed £2 a litre on 2 October.
UK Diesel Price October 2026
Source: ITV/RAC, Fuel Finder UK. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
In the UK, diesel costs about 25p a litre more than petrol. Diesel has risen faster because the shortage sits in middle distillates. Petrol supply has held up better.
How Much Does It Cost to Fill a Diesel Car?
Source: our calculation from ITV/RAC prices, using 4.546 litres per UK gallon. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Is there a diesel shortage in the UK?
The government says supplies are secure. A spokesperson said the UK has "a diverse and resilient supply", ITV reported. Several structural points still make the UK sensitive to the shortage.
Source: ITV, PetrolPrices.co.uk.
Fawley is ExxonMobil's refinery and the largest in the UK. Its import terminal keeps operating during the work, PetrolPrices.co.uk reported. Diesel powers almost 99% of HGVs and almost all tractors, The Week noted. That is how pump prices reach supermarket shelves.
Fuel duty and the 28 October Budget
Tax is a large part of the UK price. Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre. At 200.01p, VAT adds about 33.3p, so total tax is about 86p a litre, PetrolPrices.co.uk calculated.
- The 5p duty cut is due to end on 31 December 2026.
- A 3p duty rise is scheduled for January 2027.
- The Liberal Democrats have called for a further 10p cut.
- The Autumn Budget on 28 October is the next policy date for duty.
The duty points come from PetrolPrices.co.uk. A 10p cut would be worth about 12p at the pump once VAT is included.
UK inflation and the Bank of England
UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August. Motor fuel prices were up 23% year on year, BabyPips reported. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September by a 6-3 vote. Three members voted to raise rates, MTS Insights reported. The Bank expects CPI near 3.75% in the fourth quarter of 2026.
UK CPI for September is due on 21 October from the ONS. The Bank of England then decides on rates on 5 November.
Sterling also affects the local diesel bill. GBP/USD was about 1.32 on 8 October, derived from ECB reference rates.
Seychelles Fuel Prices
Seychelles imports all of its fuel. SEYPEC sets pump prices in steps, so they move less often than in Europe. The squeeze still reaches the islands, and it reaches electricity bills as well as cars.
SEYPEC price list: how diesel has changed
Source: Nation.sc (April), Nation.sc (July), SEYPEC price ticker. The July source reports the size of the step only. The date of the latest step was not published on the ticker. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
SEYPEC's price list shows petrol at SCR 24.68 a litre beside diesel at SCR 25.19. At USD/SCR 13.8598 on 9 October, diesel costs about $1.82 a litre, based on Trading Economics exchange-rate data. A 50-litre fill now costs about SCR 1,260, up from about SCR 1,010 before the April step.
SEYPEC has absorbed part of the shock. In July it said a full pass-through would have meant a rise of about SCR 5 a litre, Nation.sc reported. The IMF noted on 29 September that state-owned companies subsidise prices, which has weakened their balance sheets, according to its mission statement. The government plans a gradual move to commercial pricing. That could mean further steps while world diesel prices stay high.
Why Seychelles electricity depends on diesel
Most power in Seychelles comes from diesel. The Public Utilities Corporation runs three diesel power stations with about 125 MW of capacity. Renewables supplied only 3.6% of generation in 2023, according to a World Bank project document.
- Households using up to 400 kWh a month were shielded from the July fuel cost adjustment.
- Usage above 400 kWh a month carries a higher fuel cost adjustment.
- Commercial and government tariffs were revised.
The 400 kWh threshold was set out by State House Seychelles in July.
Where Seychelles gets its fuel
The UAE has long been a main supplier. UAE exports of refined petroleum to Seychelles were worth $231 million in 2022, OEC data show. That supply chain starts inside the Gulf, so the Hormuz blockade affects it directly. In August, Cabinet approved a seven-year supply deal between SEYPEC and TotalEnergies Trading, Nation.sc reported. The deal widens the sources of supply.
Seychelles inflation and the rupee
Inflation in Seychelles remains low by European standards. Inflation in September 2026 was 1.22%, the highest since December 2024, Trading Economics reported. Transport prices rose 4.84%. The IMF expects growth to slow to 1% in 2026, from 5.8% in 2025, after tourist arrivals fell from March to June. Over the past 12 months the rupee gained about 6.4% against the dollar, Trading Economics data show. That has cushioned import costs.
What the Diesel Crisis Means for Your Wallet
Diesel moves almost everything. The table compares the main channels in each market.
Source: Ahram Online/AFP, Global Agriculture, The Week, Courthouse News Service, Trading Economics, World Bank.
In US dollar terms, the UK price of 200.01p equals about $2.64 a litre. The EU record of €2.24 equals about $2.51. Seychelles diesel costs about $1.82. These conversions use the 8 October ECB rates and the 9 October rupee rate.
Diesel is scarce while crude oil is more available. A crack spread near $98 a barrel shows that the shortage sits in refining, which is why diesel has risen much faster than crude.
The G7 and IEA Emergency Oil Release
On 2 October, the G7 announced an "IEA-coordinated release of 100 million barrels over a four-month period". Diesel is front-loaded into the first 20 days, The Vibes/AP reported. The G7 also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions among its members.
Source: The Vibes/AP, Roic News, The Deep Dive.
Will the G7 release work?
The release could ease prices. Michael Lynch of EPRF estimates that European releases could lower US diesel prices by 25 to 50 cents a gallon after several weeks, Roic News reported. Gasoil closed 6.6% lower on the day of the announcement, Investing.com data show.
The release also has limits. Part of the 100 million barrels comes from pledges made in March, so they are not all new barrels, Fuel Finder UK noted. Gasoil rebounded about 13% in two sessions after 6 October. Saudi Aramco's Amin Nasser called global stocks "scarily thin", Roic News reported.
Diesel Price Forecast: What Analysts Expect
Forecasts differ widely. The table lists published views. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Source: US EIA, OilPrice.com, The Star, Roic News, Roic News, MTS Insights. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
When will diesel prices go down?
The answer depends on supply. In floating-price markets such as the EU and UK, pump prices usually follow wholesale prices with a lag. Seychelles reacts only at SEYPEC's next price revision. Because subsidies are being unwound, a fall in world prices may bring a pause at the pump in Seychelles before any cut.
Key Dates for Diesel Prices in October and November 2026
October's calendar is unusually crowded for anyone watching fuel costs. Times are UK time. The Admirals economic calendar lists the macro releases as they approach.
Source: US BLS, IEA, Roic News, ONS, PetrolPrices.co.uk, Euronews, The Star, The Week, RegFollower, VATupdate.
Illustrative Scenarios for Diesel Prices
The scenarios below are illustrative only. They show how prices could react to different triggers. They are not predictions. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Source: illustrative scenarios built from the data in this article, including Roic News and ITV. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.
ICE Gasoil Technical Analysis
Some traders look at chart levels alongside the fundamentals. The levels below come from recent ICE gasoil closes and intraday extremes. They describe the past and do not show where prices go next.
Source: our calculation from Investing.com daily data, 9 Sep to 9 Oct 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Since mid-September, gasoil has traded in a wide range between about $1,310 and $1,575. In chart terms, some traders could read a close above $1,535 as a sign that the September highs may be tested again. A close below $1,380 could suggest the reserve release is having an effect. Both readings can fail quickly when headlines change.
How Traders Often Approach Oil and Diesel Markets
Traders often watch the crack spread and weekly stock data. The dates listed above also tend to draw attention. Markets have often reacted sharply to single headlines about Hormuz or Russian refineries. Our guide on how to trade crude oil CFDs explains the basics. The article on the most traded commodities gives wider context.
Admirals offers CFDs on commodities, including crude oil benchmarks such as Brent. Details are on the commodity CFDs page. Trading is available through MetaTrader 5. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Summary
The global diesel shortage comes from refining, and crude supply plays a smaller part. Russian refinery outages and the export ban have removed a large share of world diesel trade. The Hormuz blockade has done the same for Gulf cargoes. Pump prices reached records in the UK and the EU. Seychelles has seen smaller, regulated steps.
The G7 release, the 31 October Russian decision and Hormuz shipping are the main factors to watch. Each of them could push prices in either direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is causing the diesel shortage?
Russian refinery outages and a Russian diesel export ban cut supply. The near-closure of Hormuz removed Gulf cargoes as well.
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect diesel prices?
The blockade cut Gulf diesel exports to about a quarter of pre-war levels, leaving Europe with fewer replacement cargoes.
How does the Ukraine war affect diesel prices?
Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced Russian refinery output, and Russia responded by banning diesel exports by producers until 31 October.
Is there a diesel shortage in the UK?
The government says supply is secure. Still, the UK imports about 55% of its diesel and holds six weeks' cover.
Why is diesel so expensive right now?
Refining capacity is short, so ICE gasoil traded about $98 a barrel above Brent crude on 9 October 2026.
When will diesel prices go down?
It depends on reserve releases and Russia's export decision. Hormuz shipping matters too, and forecasts differ widely on timing.
Why are Seychelles fuel prices rising?
Seychelles imports all its fuel, much of it from the Gulf, and SEYPEC is gradually passing higher costs to consumers.
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