Diesel Shortage October 2026: Why Diesel Prices Hit Records in Europe and Seychelles

Diesel is in its tightest market for years. Two supply shocks have hit at the same time. Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out a large share of Russian refining, and Moscow has banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October. Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut Gulf diesel exports to about a quarter of pre-war levels, says the IEA Oil Market Report for September 2026.

For households, the result shows up at the pump first. UK diesel passed £2 a litre for the first time on 2 October, at 200.01p, ITV reported, citing RAC data. The EU average reached a record €2.24 a litre, AFP reported. In Seychelles, the state supplier SEYPEC lists diesel (gasoil) at SCR 25.19 a litre on its price ticker. The same squeeze also reaches deliveries and food. Flights and electricity feel it too.

The information in this article is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Table of Contents

This article explains what is causing the diesel shortage, what it costs in each market and which dates could move diesel prices next. All prices carry a date because they change quickly. Figures were checked on 9 October 2026.

The Diesel Shortage in Brief

The short answers come first. The detail follows in the sections below.

Why is there a diesel shortage?

  • Ukrainian drones hit a Russian refinery on average once every three days in the first eight months of 2026.
  • Russia, one of the largest diesel exporters, has banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October 2026.
  • Iranian attacks on tankers have left the Strait of Hormuz almost closed for refined products.
  • Gulf diesel exports were about a quarter of pre-war levels in August.
  • China suspended most of its October fuel exports, which removed another source of supply.

The Gulf and Russia together supplied almost 45% of seaborne diesel trade worldwide before the war. In August their combined net exports were 1.6 million barrels a day (mb/d) below February levels, according to the IEA.

How long will the diesel shortage last?

The timing is uncertain. Some analysts expect tight supply into 2027. Goldman Sachs expects diesel refining margins of about $63 a barrel in the US and $49 in the EU in 2027, OilPrice.com reported on 31 August. Other voices are more hopeful. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said diesel had "likely peaked", Roic News reported. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Key diesel numbers at a glance

Measure Latest Date Before the war (late February)
UK diesel (RAC average, record) 200.01p per litre 2 Oct 2026 142.38p
EU average diesel (consumption-weighted) €2.24 per litre Week of 28 Sep 2026 €1.59
Seychelles diesel price (SEYPEC) SCR 25.19 per litre 9 Oct 2026 SCR 20.19 (before 13 Apr)
ICE gasoil front month $1,497.63 per tonne 9 Oct 2026, intraday $752.75 per tonne (27 Feb close)
Brent crude about $103.35 per barrel 9 Oct 2026 See the 5-year table below
US diesel record (AAA) $6.52 per gallon 22 Sep 2026 Not applicable

Source: ITV/RAC, Ahram Online/AFP, SEYPEC, Nation.sc, Investing.com, S&P Global, Trading Economics, The Vibes/AP. Intraday prices are snapshots taken on 9 October 2026. The sources do not show a time stamp, so prices may have changed since. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Diesel itself lacks a licence-free chart. The Brent crude CFD below shows the crude oil backdrop.

What Is Causing the Diesel Shortage?

Three forces explain most of the move. Two of them come from Russia. Refinery strikes and an export ban have cut its supply. The third is the Hormuz blockade. Thin stocks and shipping costs add to the pressure.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries

In the first eight months of 2026, a Russian refinery was hit on average once every three days, the IEA said, as Kyiv Post reported. The same report counted at least 70 strikes on refineries between January and mid-September. A count of strike attempts gives a higher figure. United24 Media reported close to 200 strikes from January to June 2026. The two counts use different methods, so they should be read separately.

The damage is concentrated where diesel is made. Six large refineries produce roughly 50% of Russian diesel. Three of those six had cut or halted output by mid-September, Kyiv Post reported.

Refinery Status reported Date
Kirishi (KINEF), about 20 Mt a year Fully stopped after a strike 30 Aug 2026
Volgograd (Lukoil) Running at about 25% of capacity Sep 2026
NORSI Running at about 25% of capacity Sep 2026
Taneco Hit by drones 13 Sep 2026
17 refineries in total Unplanned outages averaged 3.8 mb/d August 2026

Source: The Deep Dive, Kyiv Post, Industrial Info Resources. Strike data come partly from parties to the conflict.

At least 17 Russian regions have rationed fuel, with limits of 30 to 40 litres per fill, Kyiv Post reported. Politics now shapes the supply outlook too. US President Donald Trump urged Ukraine in September to stop the strikes on diesel plants, Euromaidan Press reported. Kyiv has described refineries as legitimate military targets.

Russia's Diesel Export Ban

Russia has used export bans to protect its home market. The rules come in layers, which makes the 31 October date important. A lapse or an extension could each move prices.

Date Measure
8 Jul 2026 Ban on diesel exports by producers introduced
30 Jul 2026 Decree extends wider fuel export limits to 31 Jan 2027
Late Aug 2026 Producer diesel ban extended to the end of September
30 Sep 2026 Producer diesel ban extended to 31 Oct 2026
31 Oct 2026 Current producer ban due to expire

Source: OilPrice.com, The Star/Reuters.

The effect on trade is large. Russian seaborne product exports were 4.57 Mt in August, still 50% below August 2025, OilPrice.com reported. Europe stopped buying Russian diesel in 2023. Even so, the loss matters to Europe. Russian barrels used to supply other buyers, who now compete for the same cargoes from elsewhere.

The Strait of Hormuz Blockade 2026

Before the war, about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG passed through the strait, Insurance Business reported. Iran struck at least 12 tankers between 29 September and 5 October, according to the UANI shipping update. Fresh incidents on 3 to 5 October included engine-room fires, the Oman Observer reported.

Measure Before the war Latest
Daily ship transits About 130 to 140 About 32 (1 to 3 Oct, US-facilitated)
Gulf diesel exports (net) About 1.4 to 1.5 mb/d (derived) 390 kb/d (August)
Middle East diesel exports to Europe Not available 110 kb/d in September (to the 21st), a six-year low, against 191 kb/d in August
Gulf refining capacity offline Not applicable About 2.2 mb/d through August

Source: UANI, IEA, S&P Global, Hydrocarbon Engineering. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

This is how the Strait of Hormuz affects diesel prices. Europe replaced Russian diesel with cargoes from the Middle East and India after 2023. Those are the barrels the blockade now holds back. Goldman Sachs analysts estimated in late August that Gulf fuel exports ran at about 40% of pre-war levels, against 70% to 80% for crude, OilPrice.com reported. That is why the shortage sits in refined fuel.

War-risk insurance and freight costs

Shipping through the region now costs far more. War-risk insurance for ships in the strait rose from 0.15% to 0.25% of a ship's hull value before the war to 3% to 10% at the peak. On a $150 million tanker, a 10% rate means $15 million per transit, Insurance Business reported.

Vitol's chief executive Russell Hardy spoke about it at a London conference. He said the conflict "is turning into a shipping crisis", OilPrice.com reported on 8 October.

Thin stocks in the US and China

Inventories offer little cushion. US distillate stocks were 12% below their 5-year average in the week to 2 October, according to Trading Economics. Chinese refiners suspended most October product exports, OilPrice.com reported. A US diesel export ban was also floated in late September. President Trump later said such a ban was "never really on the table", ITV reported.

Why Diesel Is So Expensive Compared With Crude Oil

The diesel crack spread is the gap between the price of diesel and the price of crude oil. It shows how much refiners earn from turning one barrel of crude into fuel. A wide crack means the shortage sits in refining. Crude oil itself is more available.

Item Value Note
ICE gasoil price (front month) $1,497.63 per tonne 9 Oct 2026, intraday
Same price per barrel About $201 At 7.45 barrels per tonne
Brent crude About $103.35 per barrel 9 Oct 2026
Gasoil crack spread About $98 per barrel Our calculation

Source: Investing.com, Trading Economics. The crack is our calculation from the two quoted prices. Both prices are snapshots taken on 9 October 2026 without a time stamp, so they may have changed since. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Physical diesel tells the same story. The Platts 10ppm CIF NWE cargo price hit a record $1,642.25 a tonne on 15 September, in a series that began in 2007. The ARA barge price was $752.25 a tonne on 27 February, before the war, S&P Global reported.

ICE gasoil and heating oil prices

ICE gasoil is Europe's diesel benchmark. Moves of 4% to 7% in one session have been common since mid-September, Investing.com data show.

Date (2026) ICE gasoil close ($/t) Daily change What drove it
15 Sep 1,568.25 Not shown Cycle peak after refinery strikes
2 Oct 1,354.00 Minus 6.62% G7 reserve release announced
6 Oct 1,329.50 Not shown Post-G7 low
7 Oct 1,421.00 Plus 6.88% Hormuz tanker attacks
8 Oct 1,509.25 Plus 6.21% Attacks, US Gulf storm, China export halt
9 Oct (intraday) 1,497.63 Minus 0.8% Consolidation

Source: Investing.com, The Vibes/AP. The 9 October figure is an intraday snapshot without a time stamp. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The longer record puts these moves in context. ICE gasoil fell in each year from 2023 to 2025, so the 2026 rise started from a low base of $622.75 a tonne at the end of 2025.

Year ICE gasoil year-end close ($/t) Annual change
2021 667.00 +58.5%
2022 921.00 +38.1%
2023 750.75 −18.5%
2024 691.75 −7.9%
2025 622.75 −10.0%
2026 to 9 Oct (intraday) 1,497.63 About +140%

Source: our calculation from Investing.com monthly data for the front-month contract, using year-end closes from 2020 (420.75) to 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

In the US, NYMEX ULSD (heating oil) futures traded at about $4.79 a gallon on 9 October, Trading Economics data show. Prices have eased from a mid-September peak of about $5.20 a gallon.

Brent Crude 5 Year Performance

Crude oil is the base cost of diesel. The table below puts the 2026 move in context. Brent fell in each year from 2023 to 2025 before the war pushed it higher.

Year Brent year-end close ($/bbl) Annual change
2021 77.78 About +50%
2022 85.91 +10.5%
2023 77.04 −10.3%
2024 74.64 −3.1%
2025 60.85 −18.5%
2026 to 9 Oct About 103.35 About +70%

Source: Ship & Bunker (2021), Ship & Bunker (2022), Argaam (2023), Argaam (2024), Yahoo Finance/Reuters (2025), Trading Economics (2026). Annual changes from 2022 are calculated from the year-end closes. Brent is shown for the crude oil backdrop. The 5-year record for ICE gasoil is in the section above. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Be On The Edge

Diesel Prices in Europe

Europe is especially exposed. It imports diesel, and a large share of its vehicles run on it. The Middle East and India replaced Russian supply after 2023. The Hormuz blockade now cuts into that replacement.

Europe Diesel Price Record: Country Ranking

The EU weekly oil bulletin for the week of 28 September showed the following pump prices. Taxes make up about 40% of the pump price on average across the EU, AFP reported.

Country Diesel (€ per litre) Week-on-week change
Denmark 2.54 −0.5%
Netherlands 2.53 −2.1%
Finland 2.52 −1.3%
Germany 2.44 −0.8%
Belgium 2.43 +1.8%
France 2.37 −0.5%
Italy 2.35 +3.1%
Austria 2.26 +0.9%
Portugal 2.19 −1.1%
Poland 2.06 +1.0%
Spain 1.93 +0.8%
Malta (state-set price) 1.21 0.0%

Source: fuel-prices.eu, EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, week of 28 September 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The 5 October bulletin moved the ranking. The most expensive diesel in Europe was in Finland at €2.553 a litre. Excluding Malta, the cheapest diesel in Europe was in Poland at €1.765, after tax cuts took effect on 3 October. On this source's method, the EU average was €2.149 a litre, 34.8% higher than on 23 February, fuel-prices.eu calculated.

A 50-litre tank cost about €107.45, compared with €79.70 before the war. This series uses a different method from the €2.24 AFP figure above.

What European governments are doing

Country Measure Period
Germany Energy tax cut of about €0.17 per litre 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2026
Poland VAT on fuel cut to 8%, excise cut, maximum prices 3 Oct to 31 Dec 2026
France Release of 10 million barrels of diesel from reserves Three months from October

Source: RegFollower, VATupdate, The Star/Xinhua.

French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the French release would lower pump prices by 12 to 18 euro cents a litre, The Star reported. Tax cuts help drivers in the short term. They also raise public costs, and they end on fixed dates, so prices could jump when they expire.

Eurozone inflation and the ECB

Fuel is feeding inflation again. Euro area inflation rose to 3.8% in September, the highest since September 2023, Euronews reported. Energy inflation of 18.8% was the key driver, adding about 1.7 percentage points.

Indicator Latest Note
Euro area HICP (September flash) 3.8% Consensus was 3.6%
Energy inflation 18.8% Year on year
Core inflation 2.5% Excludes energy and food
ECB deposit rate 2.50% After hikes in June and September
Market-implied chance of an ECB hike on 29 Oct About 91% Prediction markets

Source: Euronews. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Market-implied probabilities are forecasts, and forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The currency matters as well. Diesel is priced in US dollars, so a weaker euro raises the local cost. The ECB reference rate was 1.1186 dollars per euro on 8 October, according to the ECB. Readers following the central bank can find background in our note on the ECB meeting accounts published on 8 October.

Diesel Prices in the UK

The UK set an all-time diesel record in late September and crossed £2 a litre on 2 October.

UK Diesel Price October 2026

Measure Diesel Petrol Date
RAC average 200.01p 174.71p 2 Oct 2026
Fuel Finder index (6,783 stations) 200.1p Not quoted 7 Oct 2026, 07:30 BST
Supermarket average 198.0p Not quoted 7 Oct 2026, 07:30 BST
BP, Shell and Esso average 201.7p Not quoted 7 Oct 2026, 07:30 BST
Rise since 28 Feb 57.6p 41.9p To 2 Oct 2026
Previous record Set in June 2022 Not applicable Broken on 28 Sep 2026

Source: ITV/RAC, Fuel Finder UK. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

In the UK, diesel costs about 25p a litre more than petrol. Diesel has risen faster because the shortage sits in middle distillates. Petrol supply has held up better.

How Much Does It Cost to Fill a Diesel Car?

Example Cost at 200.01p Cost at 142.38p (28 Feb) Difference
55-litre tank £110.01 £78.31 £31.70
Cost per mile, 45 mpg About 20.2p About 14.4p About 5.8p
10,000 miles a year, 45 mpg About £2,020 About £1,438 About £582

Source: our calculation from ITV/RAC prices, using 4.546 litres per UK gallon. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Is there a diesel shortage in the UK?

The government says supplies are secure. A spokesperson said the UK has "a diverse and resilient supply", ITV reported. Several structural points still make the UK sensitive to the shortage.

Factor Detail
UK diesel imports Nearly 55% of UK diesel is imported
US share of imports About 31% of UK diesel imports
Reserves About six weeks of cover, against about six months in France, Germany, Italy and Spain
Refineries Four left, down from 18 in the 1980s
Fawley refinery shutdown Planned maintenance of up to 10 weeks, into November

Source: ITV, PetrolPrices.co.uk.

Fawley is ExxonMobil's refinery and the largest in the UK. Its import terminal keeps operating during the work, PetrolPrices.co.uk reported. Diesel powers almost 99% of HGVs and almost all tractors, The Week noted. That is how pump prices reach supermarket shelves.

Fuel duty and the 28 October Budget

Tax is a large part of the UK price. Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre. At 200.01p, VAT adds about 33.3p, so total tax is about 86p a litre, PetrolPrices.co.uk calculated.

  • The 5p duty cut is due to end on 31 December 2026.
  • A 3p duty rise is scheduled for January 2027.
  • The Liberal Democrats have called for a further 10p cut.
  • The Autumn Budget on 28 October is the next policy date for duty.

The duty points come from PetrolPrices.co.uk. A 10p cut would be worth about 12p at the pump once VAT is included.

UK inflation and the Bank of England

UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August. Motor fuel prices were up 23% year on year, BabyPips reported. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September by a 6-3 vote. Three members voted to raise rates, MTS Insights reported. The Bank expects CPI near 3.75% in the fourth quarter of 2026.

UK CPI for September is due on 21 October from the ONS. The Bank of England then decides on rates on 5 November.

Sterling also affects the local diesel bill. GBP/USD was about 1.32 on 8 October, derived from ECB reference rates.

Seychelles Fuel Prices

Seychelles imports all of its fuel. SEYPEC sets pump prices in steps, so they move less often than in Europe. The squeeze still reaches the islands, and it reaches electricity bills as well as cars.

SEYPEC price list: how diesel has changed

Date Diesel (gasoil), SCR per litre Change
Before 13 Apr 2026 20.19 Level before the April step
From 13 Apr 2026 21.19 +SCR 1
From midnight, 24 Jul 2026 Level not published in the source +SCR 2 at the pump, as reported
Listed on 9 Oct 2026 25.19 About +25% against the level before 13 Apr

Source: Nation.sc (April), Nation.sc (July), SEYPEC price ticker. The July source reports the size of the step only. The date of the latest step was not published on the ticker. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

SEYPEC's price list shows petrol at SCR 24.68 a litre beside diesel at SCR 25.19. At USD/SCR 13.8598 on 9 October, diesel costs about $1.82 a litre, based on Trading Economics exchange-rate data. A 50-litre fill now costs about SCR 1,260, up from about SCR 1,010 before the April step.

SEYPEC has absorbed part of the shock. In July it said a full pass-through would have meant a rise of about SCR 5 a litre, Nation.sc reported. The IMF noted on 29 September that state-owned companies subsidise prices, which has weakened their balance sheets, according to its mission statement. The government plans a gradual move to commercial pricing. That could mean further steps while world diesel prices stay high.

Why Seychelles electricity depends on diesel

Most power in Seychelles comes from diesel. The Public Utilities Corporation runs three diesel power stations with about 125 MW of capacity. Renewables supplied only 3.6% of generation in 2023, according to a World Bank project document.

  • Households using up to 400 kWh a month were shielded from the July fuel cost adjustment.
  • Usage above 400 kWh a month carries a higher fuel cost adjustment.
  • Commercial and government tariffs were revised.

The 400 kWh threshold was set out by State House Seychelles in July.

Where Seychelles gets its fuel

The UAE has long been a main supplier. UAE exports of refined petroleum to Seychelles were worth $231 million in 2022, OEC data show. That supply chain starts inside the Gulf, so the Hormuz blockade affects it directly. In August, Cabinet approved a seven-year supply deal between SEYPEC and TotalEnergies Trading, Nation.sc reported. The deal widens the sources of supply.

Seychelles inflation and the rupee

Inflation in Seychelles remains low by European standards. Inflation in September 2026 was 1.22%, the highest since December 2024, Trading Economics reported. Transport prices rose 4.84%. The IMF expects growth to slow to 1% in 2026, from 5.8% in 2025, after tourist arrivals fell from March to June. Over the past 12 months the rupee gained about 6.4% against the dollar, Trading Economics data show. That has cushioned import costs.

What the Diesel Crisis Means for Your Wallet

Diesel moves almost everything. The table compares the main channels in each market.

Channel Europe (EU) UK Seychelles
Fuel at the pump €2.24 per litre, record EU average 200.01p per litre, record SCR 25.19 per litre, regulated
Deliveries and haulage Lorry costs up, haulier protests in Portugal Almost all HGVs run on diesel All goods arrive by sea, freight costs up
Food Farm energy costs +22% year on year (Q2) Pre-Christmas food price pressure Fish prices +6.07% year on year (Sep)
Flights Jet fuel shares the same refinery squeeze Jet fuel shares the same refinery squeeze Airfares matter for tourism
Electricity Gas-to-oil switching risk this winter Indirect, through wider energy prices Power is mostly diesel-generated

Source: Ahram Online/AFP, Global Agriculture, The Week, Courthouse News Service, Trading Economics, World Bank.

In US dollar terms, the UK price of 200.01p equals about $2.64 a litre. The EU record of €2.24 equals about $2.51. Seychelles diesel costs about $1.82. These conversions use the 8 October ECB rates and the 9 October rupee rate.

Diesel is scarce while crude oil is more available. A crack spread near $98 a barrel shows that the shortage sits in refining, which is why diesel has risen much faster than crude.

The G7 and IEA Emergency Oil Release

On 2 October, the G7 announced an "IEA-coordinated release of 100 million barrels over a four-month period". Diesel is front-loaded into the first 20 days, The Vibes/AP reported. The G7 also pledged to avoid energy export restrictions among its members.

Point Detail
G7 oil release 100 million barrels Over four months, diesel first
Front-loaded window First 20 days, to about 22 October
IEA Governing Board Meets 14 to 15 October to set details
European proposal 50 million barrels of diesel plus 50 million of crude
Size of 50 million barrels About 17% of EU emergency diesel stocks, about 3% of annual EU use
Earlier releases About 325 million barrels of the March pledge already released

Source: The Vibes/AP, Roic News, The Deep Dive.

Will the G7 release work?

The release could ease prices. Michael Lynch of EPRF estimates that European releases could lower US diesel prices by 25 to 50 cents a gallon after several weeks, Roic News reported. Gasoil closed 6.6% lower on the day of the announcement, Investing.com data show.

The release also has limits. Part of the 100 million barrels comes from pledges made in March, so they are not all new barrels, Fuel Finder UK noted. Gasoil rebounded about 13% in two sessions after 6 October. Saudi Aramco's Amin Nasser called global stocks "scarily thin", Roic News reported.

Diesel Price Forecast: What Analysts Expect

Forecasts differ widely. The table lists published views. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Source View Published
US EIA (STEO) Brent $105 in Q4 2026, $96 for 2026, $84 for 2027 6 Oct 2026
US EIA (STEO) US retail diesel averages $5.19 a gallon in 2026 6 Oct 2026
Goldman Sachs Diesel margins $63 a barrel (US), $49 (EU) in 2027 31 Aug 2026
French government Expects the reserve release to lower French diesel by 12 to 18 cents a litre 7 Oct 2026
Michael Lynch (EPRF) European releases could lower US diesel by 25 to 50 cents a gallon Early Oct 2026
Chris Wright (US Energy Secretary) Diesel has "likely peaked" 4 Oct 2026
Bank of England UK CPI near 3.75% in Q4 2026 17 Sep 2026

Source: US EIA, OilPrice.com, The Star, Roic News, Roic News, MTS Insights. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

When will diesel prices go down?

The answer depends on supply. In floating-price markets such as the EU and UK, pump prices usually follow wholesale prices with a lag. Seychelles reacts only at SEYPEC's next price revision. Because subsidies are being unwound, a fall in world prices may bring a pause at the pump in Seychelles before any cut.

Key Dates for Diesel Prices in October and November 2026

October's calendar is unusually crowded for anyone watching fuel costs. Times are UK time. The Admirals economic calendar lists the macro releases as they approach.

Date Event Why it matters
Wed 14 Oct US CPI for September, 13:30 BST First US inflation data after the diesel record
Wed 14 Oct IEA Oil Market Report (October) Updated diesel balances
14 to 15 Oct IEA Governing Board Who releases how much diesel
Wed 21 Oct UK CPI for September, 07:00 BST Motor fuel effect on inflation
About 22 Oct End of the 20-day diesel window Shows whether the release reaches the pump
Wed 28 Oct UK Autumn Budget Fuel duty decisions
Thu 29 Oct ECB rate decision Response to energy-driven inflation
Sat 31 Oct Russian producer diesel ban expires Trigger for November supply
Tue 3 Nov US midterm elections Political pressure on fuel prices
Thu 5 Nov Bank of England decision UK rates and sterling
31 Dec German, Polish and UK fuel tax relief ends Possible pump price step on 1 January

Source: US BLS, IEA, Roic News, ONS, PetrolPrices.co.uk, Euronews, The Star, The Week, RegFollower, VATupdate.

Illustrative Scenarios for Diesel Prices

The scenarios below are illustrative only. They show how prices could react to different triggers. They are not predictions. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Scenario Possible triggers How prices could react Risks to the scenario
Relief Large new IEA diesel volumes, Russian ban lapses, Hormuz attacks stop Gasoil could slip below $1,380 a tonne, and UK diesel could fall back under 200p Stocks stay thin, so rebounds may be sharp
Squeeze into winter Ban extended, strikes continue, cold weather Gasoil could retest $1,568 to $1,575, and new pump records are possible Demand falls as prices rise, which could cap gains
Fast de-escalation US-Iran deal reopens Hormuz, energy strike truce The risk premium could fall quickly, as in late June Rebuilding stocks may take one to two years
Escalation US diesel export ban, strikes on Gulf export sites Europe and the UK could compete harder for cargoes The G7 pledge argues against export bans

Source: illustrative scenarios built from the data in this article, including Roic News and ITV. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance.

ICE Gasoil Technical Analysis

Some traders look at chart levels alongside the fundamentals. The levels below come from recent ICE gasoil closes and intraday extremes. They describe the past and do not show where prices go next.

Level Value ($ per tonne) Basis
Resistance 2 1,568 to 1,575 15 Sep close and intraday high
Resistance 1 1,530 to 1,535 8 Oct and 23 Sep intraday highs
Last 1,497.63 9 Oct intraday
20-day average About 1,458 Our calculation
Support 1 1,421 to 1,429 7 Oct and 22 Sep closes
Support 2 1,377 to 1,380 7 Oct low, 6 Oct high
Support 3 1,309 to 1,330 6 Oct low and close

Source: our calculation from Investing.com daily data, 9 Sep to 9 Oct 2026. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Since mid-September, gasoil has traded in a wide range between about $1,310 and $1,575. In chart terms, some traders could read a close above $1,535 as a sign that the September highs may be tested again. A close below $1,380 could suggest the reserve release is having an effect. Both readings can fail quickly when headlines change.

How Traders Often Approach Oil and Diesel Markets

Traders often watch the crack spread and weekly stock data. The dates listed above also tend to draw attention. Markets have often reacted sharply to single headlines about Hormuz or Russian refineries. Our guide on how to trade crude oil CFDs explains the basics. The article on the most traded commodities gives wider context.

Admirals offers CFDs on commodities, including crude oil benchmarks such as Brent. Details are on the commodity CFDs page. Trading is available through MetaTrader 5. A demo account uses virtual funds, and results may differ from live trading.

Possible advantages of oil CFDs Possible disadvantages of oil CFDs
Exposure to rising or falling prices Leverage can magnify losses as well as gains
Trading without owning the physical commodity Overnight financing costs apply to open positions
Tools such as stop-loss orders to help manage exposure Prices can gap past stop levels on major news
Access through common trading platforms Volatility in 2026 has been unusually high

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Summary

The global diesel shortage comes from refining, and crude supply plays a smaller part. Russian refinery outages and the export ban have removed a large share of world diesel trade. The Hormuz blockade has done the same for Gulf cargoes. Pump prices reached records in the UK and the EU. Seychelles has seen smaller, regulated steps.

The G7 release, the 31 October Russian decision and Hormuz shipping are the main factors to watch. Each of them could push prices in either direction.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is causing the diesel shortage?

Russian refinery outages and a Russian diesel export ban cut supply. The near-closure of Hormuz removed Gulf cargoes as well.

How does the Strait of Hormuz affect diesel prices?

The blockade cut Gulf diesel exports to about a quarter of pre-war levels, leaving Europe with fewer replacement cargoes.

How does the Ukraine war affect diesel prices?

Ukrainian drone strikes have reduced Russian refinery output, and Russia responded by banning diesel exports by producers until 31 October.

Is there a diesel shortage in the UK?

The government says supply is secure. Still, the UK imports about 55% of its diesel and holds six weeks' cover.

Why is diesel so expensive right now?

Refining capacity is short, so ICE gasoil traded about $98 a barrel above Brent crude on 9 October 2026.

When will diesel prices go down?

It depends on reserve releases and Russia's export decision. Hormuz shipping matters too, and forecasts differ widely on timing.

Why are Seychelles fuel prices rising?

Seychelles imports all its fuel, much of it from the Gulf, and SEYPEC is gradually passing higher costs to consumers.

Some of the content on this page was created with the help of automated tools. All final text has been reviewed by Admirals and is under its editorial responsibility.

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The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  • This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  • Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content.
  • With view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  • The Analysis is prepared by an analyst (hereinafter “Author”). The Author Admirals is an employee /a contractor for Admirals. This content is a marketing communication and does not constitute independent financial research.
  • Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.
  • Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  • Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

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