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The USD/JPY: will the Michigan data set deliver first signs of bullish exhaustion today?

Oktober 25, 2019 10:00

Source: Economic Events October 25, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

While the economic calendar is quite thin this Friday, and we shouldn't expect the final release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment to induce higher volatility, we still want to have a look at the USD/JPY – a currency pair which will be of some interest in coming trading week.

The USD/JPY will be principally driven by the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, followed by the BoJ rate decision on Thursday.

While a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is nearly entirely priced in (the Fed Watch Tool currently shows a likelihood of over 90%), what's of higher interest is the rhetoric in reference to a possible rate decision in December, and the announced "Non-QE"-QE program.

Here, the current plan is to buy US Treasuries for the next 8.5 months at a pace of 60 billion USD per month, and any hints during Wednesday's meeting that the Fes could consider extending that program if no improvement to the liquidity issue in the repo market is seen, the US dollar could see a new wave of heavier selling, resulting from another push downwards in 10-year US yields, going for another test of the region around the all-time lows at 1.36%.

In addition to the dovish Fed rhetoric, it will be interesting to see what the BoJ delivers, particularly after the recent turbulences in Japanese bond markets where 10-year JGB yields spiked on October 2 after a poorly-received auction. This was a likely sign that traders are finally paying heed to Kuroda's recent comments, warning against excessive falls in super-long yields, which left us with expectations that the BoJ is to deliver a more dovish stance than currently expected.

If this expectation around the BoJ doesn't come to fruition and the Fed delivers dovish rhetoric, and the US economic releases continue to disappoint, a sustainable break above 109.00 seems unlikely.

With this bigger picture in mind, we'd carefully watch any for any better-than-expected news releases today at 2pm GMT. A stint higher is likely a potential fake out, and any signs of bullish exhaustion could be interesting for Short-engagements from a risk-reward perspective, targeting on another attempt to break back below 106.80/107.00:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD,JPY Daily chart (between September 7, 2018, to October 24, 2019). Accessed: October 24, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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