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Gold finally driven above 1,800 USD by ISM Manufacturing?

Julij 01, 2020 10:00

Source: Economic Events June 29, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


While Gold bulls have failed to gain any further bullish momentum to break above 1,800 USD (the region of 2012's yearly highs) in order to push the precious metal to its highest levels in eight years, the picture in Gold stays bullish.

One potential catalyst for a break higher, and above, 1,800 USD could come from the upcoming US economic projections, especially the ISM Manufacturing PMI's.

In fact, a disappointing print could finally result in a break below 0.60% in 10-year US yields, and we think that the only reason that a break lower could be avoided is most likely due to the solid US economic projections over the last few weeks, as well as the Citi US Economic Surprise Index hitting record high after record high.

Our interpretation is that Gold bulls are probably anticipating another wave down in terms of economic projections, but also a Fed which will soon increase its balance sheet again after its 'short-term taper' over the course of the last two weeks.

That may become especially true if volatility in Equities picks up once again, similar to the heavier volatility after the Fed on June 11.

Such an increase could act as a very bullish driver for Gold, levelling the path rather sooner than later up to the current All Time High around 1,920 USD.

Technically the mode on a daily time-frame in Gold stays bullish as long as we trade above 1,660 USD:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between April 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020). Accessed: June 30, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016 it increased by 8.1%, in 2017 it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.


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