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USDJPY driven higher by US yields. Sustainable?

November 08, 2019 09:30

Economic Event November 8

Source: Economic Events 08 November 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Into the weekly close, we want to have a look at USDJPY again. A potential trigger for volatility in the currency pair could be delivered by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment being publish today.

The data set is expected to continue the positive development of the last two months after the big disappointment in July with data coming in at the lowest level since 2016.

But what's probably of higher importance is the development around 10-year US yields over the past days, which drove the currency pair back towards 109.00.

10-year US Treasury yields took on bullish momentum into the start of November, gaining over 20 basis points, driving the positively correlated USDJPY higher, too.

Still, chances of a sustainable break higher remain low in our opinion. The reason for that can be found in the already nearly completely priced-in outcome of the FED rate decision in December that no further rate cut will be announced.

This could change if the next economic projection from the US (like today's US Michigan Consumer Sentiment) comes in worse than expected, but also if tensions between the US and China start to re-gain momentum in regard to their current Phase-1 trade-deal negotiations.

On Thursday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that China and the US have agreed to cancel existing tariffs in different phases and if China and the US reach a Phase-1 Trade Deal, both sides must cancel existing tariffs at the same time with the same proportion based on the agreement.

Still, we have the feeling that especially the rising pressure on US president Trump in regards to the current impeachment developments, could result in the Chinese using these developments as a tool to put further pressure on the US and Trump, telling them to give up on all already imposed tariffs, or else they won't negotiate on the Phase-1 deal, or anything that may follow.

That said, rising rate-cut speculation and/or risk-off-fears could result in any spikes above 109.00/30 in USDJPY to be not sustainable, but instead being a fake out, resulting in USDJPY go for another stint to the region around 108.00.

USDJPY Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on USDJPY Daily chart (between 21 September 2018 to 07 November 2019). Accessed: 07 November 2019 at 10:00 PM GMT

Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of USDJPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016 it fell by 2.8%, in 2017 it fell by 3.6%, in 2018 it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 5.1%.


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