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The USD/CAD breaks below the long term trendline after employment data release

June 10, 2019 11:00

Source: Economic Events June 10, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


Today, we want to focus on the USD/CAD, and the impact that last Friday's US and Canadian employment numbers had on the currency pair.

The NFPs came in significantly below expectations, at just 75,000 points against the 175,000 expected, with Average Hourly Earnings also disappointing MoM with just 0.2% against the expected 0.3%.

On the other hand, the Canadian Employment data came in strong, with a net change in employment of 27,700 versus an 5,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate came in at 5.4% versus the 5.7% expected.

As a result, the USD/CAD dropped significantly below the long term trendline and attacking the crucial support region around 1.3280. A break below would clearly identify the attempt to break above 1.3500/3550 as a fake-out, and activate as a first target 1.3170 on the downside.

A potential driver lower could come from solid housing numbers from Canada, while any disappoint in JOLTs Jobs openings could trigger further US recession fears among market participants:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/CAD Daily chart (between March 9, 2018, to June 7, 2019). Accessed: June 7, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/CAD increased by 9.4%, in 2015, it increased by 19.1%, in 2016, it fell by 2.9%, in 2017, it fell by 6.4%, in 2018, it increased by 8.4%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28.4%.


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