US Retail Sales to print at an all-time low – Gold with new bullish momentum?

April 15, 2020 11:30

Source: Economic Events April 15, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

The picture in Gold hasn't changed over the last week, and while we still consider the situation to be tense, the push above 1,700 USD on Monday is a clearly bullish sign.

Technically, the mode stays bullish as long as we trade above 1,440/450 USD.

A potential driver for a push above 1,700 USD could come on Wednesday, from the Retail Sales data at 1230pm GMT.

After US Retail Sales posted their biggest fall in over a year last February, as consumers cut back on spending in a range of products, data for March is expected to come in even worse with the "Corona shutdown".

In fact, the expected print of -7% would indicate the weakest number since the data set was first published back in 1992, and far below the current all-time low at -3.9% in 2008 during the Great Financial Crisis.

If we get to see a double-digit print (meaning everything greater -10%), Gold could see a push to new yearly highs, since Retail Sales can be considered the backbone of the US economy. Such a weak print, in addition to the explosion in initial jobless claims, could legitimately be seen as a very dark outlook for the US economy, thus favouring long engagements in the precious metal.

Still, short-term a next wave of de-leveraging hitting global financial markets shouldn't be ruled out, mainly driven by the given global USD shortage, also resulting in a new wave of aggressive selling in Gold due to liquidity reasons.

But again: technically, the key-support can still be found around 1,440/450, above that level a deeper push above 1,700 USD is definitely an option.

Nevertheless, another "liquidation wave" could bring a short-term drop below 1,440/450 USD into play which would technically darken the picture, activating 1,250/260 USD as a first target:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between January 14, 2019, to April 14, 2020). Accessed: April 14, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.

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