We use cookies to give you the best possible experience on our website. By continuing to browse this site, you give consent for cookies to be used. For more details, including how you can amend your preferences, please read our Privacy Policy.
More Info Accept
81% of retail accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. expand_more

Seasonality in Gold looks to be favouring Gold bulls

October 28, 2020 11:00

Seasonality in Gold looks to be favouring Gold bulls

Economic Events October 28, 2020Source: Economic Events October 28, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

While Gold is still waiting for impulses and continues to trade around 1,900 USD, tensions are building and sooner than later traders can expect a sharp increase in volatility.

While a potential trigger event is certainly the upcoming US presidential election on the 03rd of November (next Tuesday), it is not guaranteed due to a sharp rise in regards to risk appetite, respectively risk aversion, among market participants.

While Democrats and Republicans have not yet agreed on a deal for an economic relief package, it seems traders should prepare to see Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin come up with an optimistic outlook on continued stimulus talks right after polls are closed on Election Day.

As we already pointed out, a final deal between Democrats and Republicans will potentially fall into a time which is historically known to be bullish for Gold from a seasonal perspective (December/January). This could drive the price of Gold significantly back above 2,000 USD – only with a small delay.

In fact, extending this seasonal view on the yellow metal shows that the current "weakness" in Gold has usually been a good buying opportunity, at least in the time period from October 1986 to now.

Still, we remain cautious in regard to long engagements below 1,975 USD on a daily time-frame, but keep this level in mind since it could be the initial bullish catalyst that drives Gold up to its current yearly and All-Time highs around 2,075 USD or even higher:

Gold Daily chartSource: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between June 12, 2019, to October 27, 2020). Accessed: October 27, 2020, at 10:00 PM GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, and in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that in five years, it was up by 28%.


Discover the world's #1 multi-asset platform

Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level than with MetaTrader 4. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5!

Trade With MetaTrader 5


Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
  9. Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.