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Gold: short-term a little extended, but gains to come in the mid-term

June 26, 2019 11:00

Source: Economic Events June 25, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


In our technical piece from last Friday, we called Gold as a 'strong buy' after it broke its multi-year-resistance zone around 1,360/365 USD after a very dovish interpreted Fed last week on Wednesday.

'Unfortunately,' the mentioned dip back towards the breakout region around 1,360/365 USD did not occur, but instead, the precious metal continued to storm higher already hitting the first potential target on the upside around 1,440 USD, a high being marked in September 2013 and currently acting as a potential stop-over up to 1,700 USD.

In general, the mode looks very extended with the RSI(14) on a daily-time-frame hitting the highest level since February 2016. From that perspective, the risk-reward for long engagements seems to become a little unattractive and any solid, probably better than expected data set like today's US Durable Goods at 1330 BST could trigger a corrective move, even though a dip down to 1,360/365 seems very optimistic, we expect first buyers around 1,410 USD already.

On the other hand and based on our experience, we know Gold being quite trend-stable and even if the mode looks quite extended, Gold could continue to trade even higher without looking back.

This seems especially true if the incoming US data continues to disappoint. That said, further gains up to 1,480/490 USD, a high from May 2013, is a serious option, too:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 19, 2018, to June 25, 2019). Accessed: June 25, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.


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