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US Retail Sales to be a trigger from the Fed, to push Gold next week?

September 13, 2019 11:00

Source: Economic Events September 13, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


With the continuous signs over the last few days that the US and China are set to return to negotiating on trade, 10-year US Treasury yields kept on bouncing from their lows of around 1.5%, while Gold saw a corrective move and dropped below 1,500 USD.

Today's release of the US Retail Sales data could, in fact, trigger further bearish momentum in the precious metal if and surprises like the ones we saw last month, are repeated again this month. In August, Retail Sales numbers came in at 0.7% against 0.3% (MoM), and are expected to come in this month at 0.2%.

Still, we shouldn't expect volatility to shoot up significantly with all eyes already being on the Fed Rate decision next Wednesday.

From the technical perspective, on a daily time-frame, the latest drop back below 1,500 USD is in our opinion no big deal.

As long as Gold trades above 1,380 USD, we consider the precious metal to be bullish with a potential mid-term long trigger around 1,440/450 USD and with an overall potential target around 1,650/700 USD in the weeks to come.

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between June 14, 2018, to September 12, 2019). Accessed: September 12, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.


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