Source: Economic Events November 27, 2020 - Admiral Markets Forex Calendar
The "Thanksgiving" holiday and "Black Friday" (for updated trading hours, please check our website here) will likely result in a quiet and unspectacular close of the trading week. As such, the same situation will likely unfold in FX markets, respectively EURUSD.
The bullish outlook for the currency pair has intensified over the past days.
On Wednesday, EURUSD pushed back towards and above 1.1900, levelling the path up to the current yearly highs around 1.2000 and even higher in the last weeks of 2020.
The main drivers behind our bullish outlook are the following:
- The favourable technical environment
- The bullish seasonal window that opens in EURUSD in December, dating back to the mid-1980s
- Recent news of President-elect Joe Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as Treasury secretary
This move from Biden is also, mid- to long-term, a potential driver for the US-Dollar to move lower. The reason is that Yellen, the former FED chairwoman, is a known "dove" and markets should expect a massive monetary and fiscal stimulus package to revive the world's biggest economy.
As a result, US yields are already topping out slightly below 1% with the possibility of seeing further potential on the downside and, thus, seeing no real reason not to expect EURUSD to push above 1.2000 soon.
Technically, we consider the short-term picture to remain bullish as long as EURUSD trades above 1.1870/1900 while we consider a substantial drop back below 1.1800 to be "negative". Such a drop would neutralize the current bullish EURUSD picture.
In general, the mode in EURUSD remains bullish as long as we trade above 1.1600, even though a drop lower wouldn't necessarily switch the mode to "ultra"-bearish, since the currency pair still has solid support in the region around 1.1400/1500:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on EURUSD Daily chart (from August 21, 2019, to November 26, 2020). Accessed: November 26, 2020, at 10:00 PM GMT. Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of the EURUSD fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017 it increased by 13.92%, in 2018, it fell by 4.4%, and in 2019, it fell by 2.2%, meaning that in five years, it was down by 7.3%.
Discover the world's #1 multi-asset platform
Admiral Markets offers professional traders the ability to trade with MetaTrader 5, allowing you to experience trading at a significantly higher, more rewarding level than with MetaTrader 4. Experience benefits such as the addition of the Market Heat Map, so you can compare various currency pairs to see which ones might be lucrative investments, access real-time trading data, and so much more. Click the banner below to start your FREE download of MT5!
Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:
- This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
- Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
- Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
- To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
- Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
- The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
- Any kind of previous or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
- The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
- Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.