Help center Contact us Register
arrow_forward_24px
Start Trading
Platforms
Trading Platforms
Trading Tools
Products
Markets
Instruments
Best conditions
Personal Finance New
Education
Analytics
About Admirals
Help center
Status Page
Register
menu_24px
  1. Home
  2. Analytics
  3. Technical Analysis
  4. Rising tensions in emerging markets, dropping US yields – and USD/JPY above 110?

Rising tensions in emerging markets, dropping US yields – and USD/JPY above 110?

March 29, 2019 10:00

Source: Economic Events 29 March 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


The USD/JPY has arrived in a very interesting situation for the coming days. Even though 10-year US Treasury yields dropped to new yearly lows and the lowest levels since mid-2017, the USD/JPY could stabilise above 110.

It has been a surprise to see the Yen struggle. The combination of the rising tensions in Turkey (where Turkish Lira swaps - the cost of borrowing the currency overnight - pushed to a never before seen level on Tuesday at 1,338%, principally due to Turkish banks avoidance of offering foreign speculators liquidity to bet against the Turkish Lira), and the resulting risk of a spill-over effect on other emerging countries, should make for a rise in value, particularly against the USD.

After yesterday's final GDP data printed at an annualized 2.2% on quarter in Q4, well below a 2.6% growth in the previous estimate, and the USD/JPY pushing upwards instead of down, the outlook for the currency pair into the week's close can be considered bullish.

If bulls can reconquer 110.80/111.00, another test of the region around the current yearly-highs around 112.00 in the upcoming week seems likely.

Only a drop below 109.70 in USD/JPY could quickly result in further losses, and a dynamic push with a first target around 108.50:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY 4-hour-chart (between January 11, 2019, to March 28, 2019). Accessed: March 28, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

Disclaimer: The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter "Analysis") published on the website of Admiral Markets. Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:

  1. This is a marketing communication. The analysis is published for informative purposes only and are in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
  2. Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admiral Markets shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the Analysis.
  3. Each of the Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst (Jens Klatt, Professional Trader and Analyst, hereinafter "Author") based on the Author's personal estimations.
  4. To ensure that the interests of the clients would be protected and objectivity of the Analysis would not be damaged Admiral Markets has established relevant internal procedures for prevention and management of conflicts of interest.
  5. Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the Analysis are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admiral Markets does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis. The presented figures refer that refer to any past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
  6. The contents of the Analysis should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets that the client shall profit from the strategies therein or that losses in connection therewith may or shall be limited.
  7. Any kind of previous or modeled performance of financial instruments indicated within the Publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admiral Markets for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed.
  8. The projections included in the Analysis may be subject to additional fees, taxes or other charges, depending on the subject of the Publication. The price list applicable to the services provided by Admiral Markets is publicly available from the website of Admiral Markets.
Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, you should make sure that you understand all the risks.
Avatar-Admirals
Admirals An all-in-one solution for spending, investing, and managing your money

More than a broker, Admirals is a financial hub, offering a wide range of financial products and services. We make it possible to approach personal finance through an all-in-one solution for investing, spending, and managing money.