Source: Economic Events October 2, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
Today, our focus will be on Gold and the potential market-moving news event "ADP Employment Change".
With the precious metal breaking below 1,480 into the start of the week, a significant short-term region of support, it pushed back above after the ISM Manufacturing index fell to 47.8% for September, marking the lowest level since June 2009 and ISM employment dropping to 46.3 points.
This is all in all not a very good sign in regards to today's ADP data set, since the previous prints can all in all be considered 'mixed' in our opinion with private businesses hired 195k workers in August 2019 (more than the expected 149k), but July's numbers were downwardly revised to 142k a weak print is definitely an option.
That said, a reading significantly below the expected 140k would potentially trigger US dollar weakness and thus Gold would help to make it back towards 1,500 USD, further increasing chances of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed into the end.
On the other hand, a surprisingly better than expected reading could result in a continuation of the bearish momentum isn't something we consider to be a big deal, since we see a potential mid-term long trigger around 1,440/450 USD with the overall mid-term price target on the upside around 1,650/700 USD staying active:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between July 3, 2018, to October 1, 2019). Accessed: October 1, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.
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