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Your weekly fundamental view (Nov 28- Dec 2)

November 28, 2016 13:30


Need to know

This upcoming week offers a wide range of events such as a referendum in Italy, a presidential election in Austria, an address from ECB President Draghi and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures in the US. The most interesting and perhaps volatile event this week is the Italian referendum, which offers voters a yes or no vote regarding proposed changes and reforms of the Italian constitution. Keep an eye out for our full report and comprehensive special article later this week as well as our live webinar on Thursday for full details of the impact on politics, the economy, the Forex and financial markets.

Coming up

EUR Mario Draghi the head of ECB speaks on Monday, 28 November. Mr Draghi will speak at the European Parliament to the European Parliament's Economic Committee in Brussels. Why should traders care? Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher clues about the interest rate and monetary policy. This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) President will testify about the ECB's view on monetary and economic developments. Mr Draghi is also expected to discuss the consequences of the expected Brexit development.

OPEC meeting on Wednesday, 30 November. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Vienna Austria to discuss issues regarding energy markets and oil production. Why should traders care? The OPEC could decide to decrease oil production levels, which may impact the world's oil supply and, therefore, oil prices.

Bank stress test results on Wednesday, 30 November. The stress tests complete simulations to test the ability of larger banks to react and respond to financial stress. Why should traders care? The tests help determine whether the banks are stable and offer sufficient capital reserve adequacy.

ADP Employment Change Wednesday, 30 November. The ADP National Employment Report measures levels of nonfarm private employment. The report is based on the actual payroll data from about 24 million employees processed by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. It represents the estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government. Why should traders care? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending. ADP data usually predicts weaker or stronger NFP reading. This month's forecast is 160k, whereas the figure showed 147k last month.(*)

Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate in the US on Friday, 2 December. NFP data represents the overall change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Average Hourly Earnings represent the change in the price businesses pay for labour, excluding the farming industry. Why should traders care? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and traders usually pay more attention to the core data. If the actual report comes better than the forecast, it will be good for the currency. The current unemployment rate is expected to stay flat at 4.9% and the Non-Farm Payroll figures are forecasted at 174k versus the previous figure of 161k.(*)

Austrian Presidential elections on Sunday, 4 December. Austria is choosing a new President after the previous 2nd round and final result was annulled by the court due to voting irregularities. Why should traders care? The two candidates, who will face each other head to head,are Alexander van der Bellen, running as an Independent and member of the Greens, and Norbert Hofer, from the FPO party. The election could be seen as another measurement whether an anti-establishment vibe is unfolding after the Brexit vote in the UK, President-elect Trump's win in the US and the upcoming referendum on the same day in Italy.

Italian referendum on Constitution amendment vote on Sunday, 4 December. Italy has plans to amend the Constitution but the proposed changes need to be approved by the Italian citizens in a referendum. Why should traders care? The reform of the Italian Constitution will reduce the ability of the opposition to oust the current government, transfer power from local government to national government and other changes, such as reducing the number of elected senators. Later this week, there will be a full report and comprehensive special article on this topic plus we will also host a live webinar on Thursday for the full details of the impact on politics, the economy, the Forex and financial markets.

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(*) Calendar Admiral Markets