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Gold stabilizing above 1,800 USD – are dropping US yields a bullish driver?

Julij 15, 2020 10:30

Gold bulls looking for a catalyst

Economic events calendar

Source: Economic Events July 15, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


While Gold failed to gain renewed bullish momentum after the precious metal broke to new yearly highs. It closed above 1,800 USD for the first time since 2011, and the picture keeps on brightening.

While recent US economic data kept on being better than expected, resulting in the Citi Economic Surprise Index rising to a new all-time high and, to the delight of market participants, so US yields didn't take on any new bullish momentum while Gold broke to new highs.

Last Friday, 10-year US Treasury yields opened below 0.60%, approaching its lowest all-time close of 0.545%.

That said, it seems as if current developments in Gold (and also Silver) are an anticipation of the potential negative impact on the US economy which will be countered with more fiscal stimulus by the US government, financed by freshly printed USD by the Fed.

So, disappointing US economic projections, like today's industrial production printing below expectations, could result in US yields pushing towards its all-time low close at 0.545%, acting as a catalyst for the bulls and push the yellow metal above 1,820 USD.

Such a break higher levels the path up to the current all-time high of around 1,920 USD, while technically the mode on a daily time-frame in Gold stays bullish as long as we trade above 1,660 USD:

Gold daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between April 15, 2019, to July 14, 2020). Accessed: July 14, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.


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