Source: Economic Events September 16, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar
After the speech from FED chairman Powell in Jackson Hole on the 27th of August, where he brought up "average inflation targeting", meaning that the FED will allow inflation to run above the FED target rate of 2% for a period of time, Gold traders will be carefully watching the FED rate decision today.
While no changes in regard to rates should be expected, Gold traders, especially, will be scanning the FED's statement for any rhetorical hints of more or less monetary stimulus in the near term.
Our expectation is that the FED will likely sound as dovish as possible, especially after the Nasdaq100 saw its quickest 10% correction ever in the last weeks.
On the other hand, it may turn out otherwise. Here is what we are taking into account:
- Today's FED rate decision is the last before the US presidential election
- US President Trump has had a fair share of attacks on the FED over the last 3.5 years
- It seems difficult to imagine an ultra-dovish rhetoric, which would potentially play into the hands of the incumbent president.
However, the FED is still, in theory, independent and the previous is purely speculative.
While we still consider the technical picture to be neutral between 1,865 and 2,075 USD, we remain slightly bullish in the near-term for the yellow metal with the focus being on the pre-weekly highs around 1,970 USD. A substantial break higher makes another attempt to recapture the 2,000 USD mark likely.
On the other hand, a break below 1,900 USD and a push down to 1,800 USD remains a serious option and shouldn't be ruled out, especially if the FED's rhetoric results in "disappointment" among Gold, and also bond, traders where a bullish spike in US yields could result in selling pressure in Gold, too:
Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between May 06, 2019, to September 15, 2020). Accessed: September 15, 2020, at 10:00 PM GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.
In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016 it increased by 8.1%, in 2017 it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, and in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that in five years, it was up by 28%.
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