Trading Mastercard Post Q4 Earnings

January 30, 2023 22:31

Credit card companies have gained a lot of attention over the past year as cross-border payment volumes soar and higher interest rates boost the bottom line. But fears of a recession, less consumer spending and a slowdown in international travel have been key concerns.  

Learn about the latest quarterly earnings report from Mastercard, what the analysts are forecasting and how to trade the stock below.

Stock: Mastercard Inc
Symbol for Invest.MT5 Account: MA
Date of Idea: 31 Jan 2023
Time Line: 1 - 6 months
Entry Level: $385.00
Target Level: $472.00
Position Size for Invest.MT5 Account: Max 5%
Risk: High
  • The Invest.MT5 account allows you to buy real stocks and shares from 15 of the largest stock exchanges in the world.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or future performance.

All trading is high risk and you can lose more than you risk on a trade. Never invest more than you can afford to lose as some trades will lose and some trades will win. Start small to understand your own risk tolerance levels or practice on a demo account first to build your knowledge before investing. 

Mastercard Q4 Earnings Report

Here are some of the key highlights from the latest fourth-quarter earnings report from Mastercard: 

  • Earnings of $2.55 billion creating earnings per share of $2.65 vs analyst expectations of $2.56 per share 
  • Revenue up 11.5% to $5.82 billion 
  • Gross dollar volume up 14% to $6 trillion over the first three quarters in 2022 
  • Cross-border volume was up 51% during the year earning $4.8 billion in fees 
  • Seven consecutive quarters of increasing earnings and eight quarters of revenue growth but earning gains slowing in the last four quarters 
  • Sales growth slowing over the past seven quarters 

Overall, Mastercard beat analyst expectations in earnings and revenue. During the company’s earnings call, this was seen as a positive by management due to the challenging period of uncertainty in the global economy and shifts in central bank policy.  

The overall growth has been highlighted in Mastercard’s stock price which reached an all-time high at $401.50 in April 2021 but has remained fairly range based since declining to a 2022 low price of $276.87 in October 2022.  

Since then, the stock rallied to post Q4 earnings high of around 40%, only around 3% away from its all-time high. However, some concerns remain this year as Mastercard has recorded several quarters of decelerating earnings growth and sales.  

Some analysts expect credit card companies to continue to perform well due to an increase in payment flows expected outside of just credit cards. There is also a chance for Mastercard to gain on its bigger rival Visa. Mastercard operates in more countries than Visa while some companies – such as Amazon - threatened to leave Visa last year due to an increase in fees.  

Other concerns include a possible slowdown in the economy and fears of a recession. Credit card companies such as Mastercard make most of the revenue from consumers using them. In a recession, most users will cut back on purchases which can affect payment volumes for credit card companies.  

Mastercard Stock Forecast - What do the Analysts Say?

According to analysts polled by TipRanks for a Mastercard stock forecast in the past 3 months, there are currently 22 buys, 3 holds and 0 sell ratings on the stock. The highest price level for a Mastercard stock forecast is $472.00 with the lowest price target at $360.00. 

The average price target for a Mastercard stock forecast is $423.87.

Source: TipRanks, 31 Jan 2023


An Example Trading Idea for the Mastercard Stock Price

An example trading idea for the Mastercard share price could be as follows:  

  • Buy the stock on a break above the post-earnings high at $385.00. 
  • Target the highest analyst price target at $472.00. 
  • Keep your risk small at a maximum of 5% of your total account.   
  • Time Line = 1 – 6 months  
  • If you buy 10 Mastercard shares:  
    • If the target is reached = $870.00 potential profit ($472.00 - $385.00 *10 shares).

Remember that markets go up and down and it is unlikely the share price will move up in a straight line. In fact, it may even go much further down before it rises, especially considering how much credit card company stocks have already risen and the fears of a recession this year. 

Be sure to exercise good risk management and always know how much you could potentially lose on a trade and the risks involved, as well as the costs.

With the Admirals Invest.MT5 account you can buy and sell US stocks with a commission from $0.02 per share. This means buying 10 shares in Mastercard stock would result in a commission of $0.20 ($0.02 * 10 shares) for executing a per-side transaction.

There is a low minimum transaction fee of $1. So, the example trading idea above would result in a commission of just $1 overall. 

How to Buy Mastercard Stock in 4 Steps  

With Admirals, you can buy shares in companies like Mastercard with a low commission of just $0.02 per share and a low minimum commission of just $1 on US stocks. 

  1. Open an account with Admirals to access the Trader’s Room.   
  2. Click on Trade on one of your live or demo accounts to open the web platform.   
  3. Search for your stock at the bottom of the Market Watch window and drag the symbol onto the chart.   
  4. Use the one-click trading feature, or right-click and open a trading ticket to input your trade size, stop loss and take profit level. 
Source: Admirals MetaTrader 5 Web. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance. 


Click on the banner below to trade Mastercard stock today. ▼▼▼ 

Do You See the Mastercard Stock Price Moving Differently?   

Remember that all analytics and trading ideas are based on the personal view and experience of the author.  

If you believe there is a higher chance Mastercard's share price will move lower, then you can also trade short from a CFD (Contracts for Difference) trading account which Admirals also provide.  

The Trade.MT5 and Trade.MT4 account allows you to speculate on the price direction of stocks and shares using CFDs.  

This means you can trade long and short to potentially profit from rising and falling stock prices. Learn more about CFDs in this How to Trade CFDs article. 


The given data provides additional information regarding all analysis, estimates, prognosis, forecasts, market reviews, weekly outlooks or other similar assessments or information (hereinafter “Analysis”) published on the websites of Admirals’ investment firms operating under the Admirals trademark (hereinafter “Admirals”) Before making any investment decisions please pay close attention to the following:   

  • This is a marketing communication. The content is published for informative purposes only and is in no way to be construed as investment advice or recommendation. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and that it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.    
  • Any investment decision is made by each client alone whereas Admirals shall not be responsible for any loss or damage arising from any such decision, whether or not based on the content. 
  • With a view to protecting the interests of our clients and the objectivity of the Analysis, Admirals has established relevant internal procedures for the prevention and management of conflicts of interest. 
  • The Analysis is prepared by an independent analyst, Jitanchandra Solanki (analyst), (hereinafter “Author”) based on their personal estimations.    
  • Whilst every reasonable effort is taken to ensure that all sources of the content are reliable and that all information is presented, as much as possible, in an understandable, timely, precise and complete manner, Admirals does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within the Analysis.    
  • Any kind of past or modelled performance of financial instruments indicated within the content should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Admirals for any future performance. The value of the financial instrument may both increase and decrease and the preservation of the asset value is not guaranteed. 
  • Leveraged products (including contracts for difference) are speculative in nature and may result in losses or profit. Before you start trading, please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. 
Jitanchandra Solanki
Jitanchandra Solanki Financial Markets Author, Admirals London

Jitanchandra is a financial markets author with more than 15 years experience trading currencies, indices and US equities. He is an accredited Market Technician with a BA Hons degree.